NFL Pick’em: Week 9

NFL Pick’em: Week 9

We’re back with another week full of NFL Picks!

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. The view of the public here is based on the expert consensus picks at Betting Pros.

You can also find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL right here at Fantasy Data. Now, let’s get to the picks!

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 55)

• The Seahawks are averaging 34.3 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
• The Bills have allowed 24.9 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
• The Bills are averaging 24.8 PPG overall this season but just 19.7 PPG over their last three games.
• The Seahawks have allowed 28.4 PPG this season.
• The OVER has hit in each of the last nine games between these teams dating back to 1995 but the implied total hasn’t been more than 43.5 points in any game during that span.
• The OVER is 5-2 for the Seahawks this season and 5-2-1 for the Bills.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
• The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS this season.
• The Seahawks defense has allowed 2,511 passing yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Seahawks defense has allowed 269.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 173.4
• Bills WRs have dropped 12 balls this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Seahawks have run successful plays on 51% of plays this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 45%
• The Bills have run successful plays on 51% of plays this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 45%
• The Seahawks are averaging 2.5 drives per TD this season — best Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 3.9
• Vegas has an implied total of 29-26 in favor of Seattle.
• The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Seahawks have been one of the best teams in the league this season but they have had to fight for most of their wins as they have gotten little help from their defense. They’re coming off a 10-point beating of the 49ers last week but dropped their only loss of the season against the Cardinals the week prior. 

The Bills have won their last two games and both against division rivals as well. They haven’t exactly done it in stunning fashion, however, and have failed to top 20 points in three of their last four games. 

On offense, the numbers favor the Seahawks in pretty much all cases for this matchup. They’re averaging more points and total yards per game while scoring on 88% of their red-zone drives. The Bills have converted third downs at a higher rate,, an area where the Seahawks have struggled this season. 

The defense is where the Bills have an edge. They’ve allowed fewer points per game and total yards, though the edges they have likely aren’t strong enough to make much of a difference against one of the best offenses in the league.

The Bills simply aren’t in a good enough form right now to make you feel like they can go toe-to-toe with Russell Wilson. I’m with the public in all aspects of this game.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 30-26

Picks: Seahawks -3, Over 55

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (O/U 47)

• The Ravens are averaging 29 PPG this season.
• The Colts have allowed 19.4 PPG overall this season (fifth-fewest) and just 15 PPG at home.
• The Colts are averaging 28.3 PPG this season.
• The Ravens have allowed 18.9 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
• The UNDER has hit in each of the last seven games between these teams.
• The home team has won each of the last five games between these teams and is 11-4 all-time.
• The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Ravens.
• The Colts are 10-5 straight-up against the Ravens dating back to 1996.
• The Colts are 3-0 at home this season.
• The OVER has hit in each of the last three games for the Colts.
• The OVER has hit in three of the last four games for the Ravens.
• The Ravens are 1-4 ATS over their last five games.
• The Ravens defense has forced 15 fumbles this season — most in NFL.
• The Ravens defense has allowed 232 yards after contact to RBs this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Ravens defense has hit opposing QBs on 35% of pass attempts since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• Philip Rivers has been sacked just 7 times on 238 pass attempts this season — best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 16.8
• The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 76.2 this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.3
• The Colts defense has allowed 564 rushing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 24.8-22.2 in favor of the Ravens.
• The public likes the Ravens to win and cover with the over hitting.

We have a classic battle between these two opponents. While both teams have put up solid numbers on offense, this game is going to be won on defense. Both teams offer top-five defensive units which should result in a grinding, low-scoring affair.

The numbers are incredibly close here when looking at each offense. The Colts have offered a more well-rounded approach with a respectable passing game while Lamar Jackson has yet to take the step forward needed in that category. The Ravens are averaging just under 200 passing yards per game this season. They’ve relied on their rushing attack which remains one of the highest volumes in the league. That might not get them far though against the Colts’ incredibly stout rushing defense. The Colts also offer a distinct advantage in red-zone defense, having allowed opponents to score on just 66.7% of drives there compared to 81.3% for the Ravens.

You trust the Ravens offense more in this matchup for sure, but they’re not as fierce as last season. The Colts defense has done a terrific job this season as well, but they have recently allowed 27 points to the Bengals and 32 points to the Browns, so they’re not a shut-down unit. The Ravens defense has also allowed 28 points in each of their last two games with one of those being against a very weak Eagles offense. I think the over is a sneaky play here with so much focus being on the defenses overall numbers and less on their recent form.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 27-26

Picks: Colts +2.5, Over 47

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) (O/U 52.5)

• The Panthers are averaging 22.4 PPG this season.
• The Chiefs have allowed just 19 PPG this season — tied for third-fewest in the NFL.
• The Chiefs are averaging 31.6 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
• The Panthers have allowed 24.1 PPG this season.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 all-time against the Panthers.
• The UNDER is 4-2 all-time in games between these teams.
• The UNDER is 5-3 for both the Chiefs and Panthers this season.
• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS this season.
• The Chiefs have an average margin of victory of 12.6 PPG this season — highest in the NFL.
• The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of just 4.1 when they have pressured the QB this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57.2
• Patrick Mahomes has a passer rating of 126.2 on the road this season — best of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 93.4
• Patrick Mahomes has not turned the ball over when pressured by the defense this season — tied for best of qualified QBs. The Panthers have pressured opposing QBs on 20.0% of passing plays this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
• The Panthers defense has allowed 296 yards after contact since Week 5 — most in NFL.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 7 rushes of 15+ yards this season — tied for most among NFL RBs.
• Vegas has an implied total of 31.5-21 in favor of the Chiefs.
• The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Panthers have now dropped three in a row but come into this game with a little extra rest having played last Thursday night. The Chiefs are quite the opposite having won their last three games and absolutely pummeled the Jets as expected in Week 8. The Chiefs offense has been the headline for the last few years, but their defense has made impressive strides this season as well. They’ve held each of their last three opponents to 17 points or fewer and held everyone but the Raiders to 20 points or fewer this season.

The Chiefs hold the advantage on both offense and defense in virtually all important categories in this matchup. The only place we see the Panthers show up stronger on defense is in the red zone where they’ve allowed opponents to score on 58.6% of drives compared to 70% for KC.

This is basically just trying to figure out who will cover the spread and what the O/U should look like. With the Panthers riding in cold and on the road, it makes sense to back the Chiefs at all angles.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 31-20

Picks: Chiefs -10.5, Under 52.5

Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 50.5)

• The Texans are averaging 23.7 PPG overall this season and 28.7 PPG over their last three games.
• The Jaguars have allowed 31.4 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
• The Jaguars are averaging 22 PPG this season.
• The Texans have allowed 31 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
• The Texans are 1-6 ATS this season — third-worst in the NFL.
• The Jags are 2-5 ATS this season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
• The Texans have won each of their last five games against the Jags.
• The Jags haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their last five games against the Texans and have been held to single-digit points in three of their last five.
• The UNDER has hit in each of the last five games between these teams.
• Deshaun Watson has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt this season — best of qualified QBs. The Jaguars have allowed 8.4 passing yards per attempt to QBs this season — worst in NFL.
• Texans WRs have 237.3 receiving yards per game since Week 5 of the 2020 season — best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged 220.0 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 5 of the 2020 season — second-worst in NFL.
• The Texans defense has allowed 10.6 yards after the catch to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4
• The Jaguars have thrown the ball 61% of the time this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%
• The Texans defense has allowed a passer rating of 114.5 this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 94.3
• The Texans defense has intercepted one of 238 attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43.7
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.8-21.8 in favor of the Texans.
• The public likes the Texans heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.

Two of the bottom-three defenses in the league will duke it out here in a game that has some sneaky shootout potential. These teams already faced each other once this season in Week 5 where the Texans won 30-14. The Jags haven’t figured much out after winning in Week 1 as they’ve lost all six games since. They also haven’t even been able to cover the spread in each of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Jags are the only team the 1-6 Texans have been able to beat this season. It was also the only game where the Texans covered the spread (-6.5) this season. The total was set at 55 points in that game, and with the under hitting. We see a lower projection this week.

The offensive averages are pretty similar between these teams this season. The Texans have averaged slightly more total yards per game thanks to their stronger passing game. Both teams have had no success running the ball and sit near the bottom of the league in rushing yards per game. Two meaningful categories where we see the Jags have a slight advantage on offense is with their higher third-down conversion rate (46.6%) which still is not a great number and their red-zone scoring percent (64%) which is just above that of the Texans (61.9%). The Jags are also marginally better in those categories on defense.

There hasn’t been much change since these two last met so it’s safe to expect the Texans pick up their second win here, though I wouldn’t put it passed the Jags to at least keep this game a little closer at home, giving them a chance to cover.

Final Prediction: Texans win 28-24

Picks: Jags +7, Over 50.5

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4) (O/U 50)

• The Broncos are averaging 21 PPG this season — sixth-fewest in the NFL.
• The Falcons have allowed 28 PPG overall this season but just 21 PPG over their last three games.
• The Falcons are averaging 26.1 PPG overall this season but just 22.2 PPG at home.
• The Broncos have allowed 26.1 PPG overall this season but just 22 PPG on the road.
• The Broncos are 5-2 ATS this season.
• The Falcons are 3-5 ATS this season.
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games for the Falcons.
• The OVER is 3-1 in the last four games for the Broncos.
• Matt Ryan has not been intercepted against the blitz this season — tied for best of 36 qualified NFL QBs.
• Drew Lock has 3 interceptions on just 42 attempts against the blitz this season — worst of 36 qualified NFL QBs
• Falcons WRs have 26 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
• The Falcons have allowed 7 or more explosive plays in 8 games this season — most in NFL.
• Broncos’ WRs have caught just 71 of 128 passes (55% Reception Pct) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27-23 in favor of the Falcons.
• The public likes the Falcons to win with the Broncos covering and the over hitting.

There aren’t really any intriguing head-to-head trends worth noting for this matchup as we haven’t seen these teams face off since back in 2016. The Falcons are still looking for their first home win of the season as their only two wins were on the road. After starting the season 0-5, they’ve managed to win two of their last three against the Vikings and Panthers. Their only loss over the last three games could be credited to Todd Gurley’s brain fart in the end zone giving the Lions a chance to come back and win.

The Broncos have managed to win three of their last four with their only loss in that span coming against the Chiefs. Despite their uptick in performance, there is still a drastic difference between these teams when it comes to offensive averages. The Falcons have a big advantage in total yards thanks to them averaging 307.8 passing yards per game. They’ve also turned the ball over less often averaging just under one turnover per game while the Broncos have averaged 2.1 turnovers per game. 

We see the Broncos take advantage on defense, however. They’ve allowed just 5.3 yards per play compared to 6.6 for Atlanta. They’ve also been more impressive, allowing just a 36% third-down conversion rate and 48% red-zone scoring percentage compared to 74.1% for the Falcons. 

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have traditionally been a better road team and this season is no different. Due to this and the Broncos defense not being a complete pushover I think should make this for a very competitive matchup.

Final Prediction: Falcons win 24-21

Picks: Broncos +4, Under 50

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-6.5) (O/U 47.5)

• The Bears are averaging 20.1 PPG this season — fifth-fewest in the NFL.
• The Titans have allowed 26.3 PPG this season.
• The Titans are averaging 29.7 PPG overall this season and 35.2 PPG at home.
• The Bears have allowed 20.8 PPG this season.
• The Bears are 5-3 ATS this season.
• The Titans are 2-5 ATS this season.
• The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Tennessee.
• The OVER is 5-1-1 for the Titans this season.
• The UNDER is 5-3 for the Bears this season.
• The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine games between these teams dating back to 1986.
• The road team has won each of the last five games between these teams and is 7-2 straight-up dating back to 1986.
• The Titans have run 18% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Titans defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 62% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%
• The Titans defense has hurried opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%
• Bears RBs have averaged 1.0 yards before contact per carry since Week 5 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
• The Bears have allowed just 8 touchdown passes this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Titans have allowed 17 passing TDs this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 27-20.5 in favor of the Titans.
• The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Titans are 5-2 and in first place in the AFC South, but the wheels are falling off a bit as of late. They’ve lost each of their last two games. The loss against the Steelers made sense, but dropping a road game against the Bengals shouldn’t have happened if this team wants to make a push deep into the playoffs this season.

The Bears are in a similar state as they’ve lost each of their last two as well. They have never looked as good as their record implied this season, and it’s caught up with them as of late.

The statistical advantage is heavily in favor of the Titans in this game as they’ve outperformed the Bears in pretty much every category. The Bears’ advantage comes on defense, where they have offered a “bend but don’t break” type of unit. They haven’t let their team get blown out despite their offensive struggles, and this is a strong reason why the Bears have performed so well ATS this season.

This is kind of a big game for the Titans as if it offers them a get right matchup after two disappointing losses, but another loss here against a solid defense would show a lot of chinks in their armor. I like them to win but wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears cover again.

Final Prediction: Titans win 24-21

Picks: Bears +6.5, Under 47.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4) (O/U 52.5)

• The Lions are averaging 25.3 PPG this season.
• The Vikings have allowed 30.6 PPG overall this season and 38 PPG at home.
• The Vikings are averaging 26.1 PPG overall this season and 29 PPG at home.
• The Lions have allowed 29.4 PPG this season.
• The OVER is 5-2 for the Vikings this season.
• The UNDER is 6-2 over the last eight games between these teams.
• The Vikings are 5-0 straight-up and ATS in their last five games against the Lions.
• The Vikings have run 403 plays this season — fewest in NFL
• Kirk Cousins has a passer rating of 101.3 when under pressure this season — best of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 57.1
• Dalvin Cook has 7 rushes of 15+ yards this season — tied for most among NFL RBs
• Dalvin Cook has scored 11 TDs this season — most of qualified RBs. The Lions have allowed 12 TDs to RBs this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Lions defense has allowed 232 rushing yards since Week 5 — fewest in NFL.
• The Lions have run 18% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Vikings defense have forced three and outs on 8% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%
• Vegas has an implied total of 28.2-24.2 in favor of the Vikings.
• The public likes the Vikings to win with the under hitting but are split on who covers.

The Vikings are crawling their way out of the cellar in the NFC North after knocking off the Packers in a huge upset on the road last week. This gives them a ton of momentum coming into a game against a Lions team they have pretty well figured out, having beaten them in each of their last five matchups. 

The Lions are on the opposite of the momentum spectrum after being beaten down 21-41 by the Colts last week. It’s their second big blowout loss of the season, with the first coming at the hands of the Packers back in Week 2. Otherwise, the Lions have played some decent ball this season with last-minute wins against the Falcons and Cardinals.

The stat comparison is very back and forth when looking at these teams side-by-side. The Lions have had a stronger passing game while the Vikings boast one of the best running games in the league behind Dalvin Cook. Both defenses have had a lot of issues this season, especially for the Vikes at home, but on average they match up pretty evenly against Detroit. The Vikings have been more stingy allowing just a 35.4% third-down conversion rate and have allowed teams to score less often in the red zone at 57.7% compared to 71.4% for Detroit. This could be where the game is won for the Vikes, but I expect a blow-for-blow slugfest here.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 30-27

Picks: Lions +4, Over 52.5

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-1) (O/U 42.5)

• The Giants are averaging 18.1 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
• WFT has allowed 23.6 PPG overall this season but just 17.7 PPG over their last three games.
• WFT is averaging 19 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
• The Giants have allowed 24.9 PPG this season.
• The Giants are 4-0 over their last four games against WFT.
• Giants’ RBs have averaged 55.2 rushing yards per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 94.9
• The Giants have thrown at least 1 interception in 7 games this season — tied for most in NFL
• WFT’s defense has allowed 125 completions this season — tied for fewest in NFL
• Daniel Jones has been pressured on 29% of pass attempts this season — tied for highest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 21%
• The Giants have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 35% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%
• WFT’s defense has allowed 10 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Giants have run successful plays on 34.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. WFT has allowed successful plays on 43.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 21.8-20.8 in favor of WFT.
• The public likes Washington to win and cover with the under hitting.

Getting pretty tired of analyzing the depressing teams of the NFC East halfway through the season. The Giants have one win this season, and it came just three weeks ago against this very Washington team. They won 20-19 with the under hitting. The implied total remains the same for this game (42.5). 

WFT is coming off one of their best games of the season as they beat the Cowboys’ hollow shell 25-3. It was only WFT’s second win, with their first coming all the way back in Week 1 against the Eagles. Their only divisional loss this season came against the Giants, and I’m sure they would love to even that record here this week. 

Both of these teams are offensive cellar dwellers with not much to get excited about. The Giants have converted third downs at a higher rate, but it’s unimpressive at just 41.7%. The Redskins have the opportunity in the red zone, having converted 61.9% of RZ drives into a score. WFT has the advantage in most defensive categories as well, which is where I think they’ll win this game.

Final Prediction: WFT wins 21-17

Picks: WFT -1, Under 42.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 51.5)

• The Raiders are averaging 26.7 PPG this season.
• The Chargers have allowed 26.4 PPG this season.
• The Chargers are averaging 25.6 PPG overall this season and 32 PPG over their last three games.
• The Raiders have allowed 29 PPG this season.
• The OVER is 5-1-1 for the Raiders this season.
• The Chargers are 5-2 ATS this season.
• The Raiders have scored on 53% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%
• The Raiders have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%
• The Raiders defense has allowed 6.5 yards after the catch this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.1
• The Chargers defense has allowed 4.2 yards after the catch this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 5.1
• The Chargers defense has allowed 2 rushing TDs to RBs this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Raiders defense has allowed 12 rushing TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• The Chargers have run 39% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — second-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%
• Vegas has this game set as a true pick’em with a total of 25.8-25.8.
• The public likes the Raiders to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get another solid divisional tilt here against the Chargers and Raiders. This will obviously be one of the toughest games of the week to peg, with Vegas having it primarily as a straight pick’em. The Raiders have more wins this season, but the Chargers have been on the verge of victory multiple times but just keep falling short. The Chargers have coaxed the over to hit in each of their last four games, however, and the Raiders have seen their game hit the over in five-of-seven games this season.

The offensive stats are pretty bak and forth here, but the Chargers see an advantage in total yards per game and number of plays per game. The Raiders have converted third downs at a slightly higher rate, but the Chargers have converted RZ drives into a score more often.

The defense is more of the same, with both teams matching pretty closely in all categories. The Chargers have allowed slightly fewer points per game and total yards per game. They’ve also allowed a lower third-down conversion rate and RZ scoring percentage, which are two categories that I think will help give them the edge. It should be a close game for sure, but I think the Bolts can make a statement for the future. 

Final Prediction: Chargers win 28-26

Pick: Over 51.5

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) (O/U 49)

• The Dolphins are averaging 26.9 PPG overall this season and 31.7 PPG over their last three games.
• The Cardinals have allowed 20.9 PPG overall this season and just 18 PPG over their last three games.
• The Cardinals are averaging 29 PPG overall this season and 35 PPG over their last three games.
• The Dolphins have allowed 18.6 PPG overall this season (fewest in the NFL) and 11.3 PPG over their last three games.
• Both teams are 5-2 ATS this season.
• The UNDER is 6-1 for the Cardinals this season — most in the NFL.
• The UNDER is 5-2 for the Dolphins this season — third-most in the NFL.
• Cardinals’ RBs have averaged 3.4 yards before contact per carry this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• The Cardinals defense has allowed 3 rushing TDs in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Dolphins have run 18% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Dolphins defense has forced 8 turnovers since Week 5 — tied for most in NFL.
• The Dolphins defense has allowed 8 TD passes this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Vegas has an implied total of 26.8-22.2 in favor of the Cards.
• The public likes the Cardinals heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Dolphins are… good? They’ve won three in a row now and have allowed the fewest PPG on defense than any other team in the league. They have even managed to cover the spread in each of their last three games. 

The Cardinals are on a similar pace right now as they’ve won three in a row of their own, including a huge divisional tilt against the Seahawks in their last game. They’ve reached at least 30 points in each of those last three games,, making a solid test going up against the Dolphins defense. 

This is a classic case of a strong offense facing a stout defense. The Cards have the offensive edge in pretty much all categories while the Fins hold the edge on defense. The consistency on offense for the Cards is enough to give them the edge for me, but this could be a very tight game.

Final Prediction: Cardinals win 26-24

Picks: Dolphins +4.5, Over 49

Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 42)

• The Steelers are averaging 30.1 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
• The Cowboys have allowed 33.2 PPG overall this season and 40 PPG at home.
• The Cowboys are averaging 23.1 PPG overall this season but just 7.3 PPG over their last three games.
• The Steelers have allowed 20.3 PPG this season.
• The OVER is 4-2-1 for the Steelers this season.
• The Steelers are 6-1 ATS this season — best in the NFL.
• The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS this season — worst in the NFL.
• The Cowboys are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Steelers dating back to 1985.
• Vegas has an implied total of 28-14 in favor of the Steelers.
• The public likes the Steelers heavily to win and cover with the over hitting.

The Cowboys have allowed an average of 40 points per game at home this season, good grief. They’re going to get straight murdered in this game and it should be something along the lines of what we saw from the Chiefs/Jets matchup last week. I’d take everything in favor of the Steelers and they could cover a 40-point spread on their own in this game.

Final Prediction: Steelers win 38-10

Picks: Steelers -13.5, Over 41.5

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) (O/U 50.5)

• The Saints are averaging 29.4 PPG this season. 
• The Bucs have allowed 20.6 PPG this season.
• The Bucs are averaging 30.9 PPG overall this season and 36 PPG over their last three games.
• The Saints have allowed 28.1 PPG this season.
• The Saints are 2-5 ATS this season.
• The OVER is 7-0 for the Saints this season.
• The OVER is 5-3 for the Bucs this season.
• The Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bucs.
• The OVER is 5-1 in the last six games between these teams.
• The Saints have run 18% of their plays in the red zone this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
• The Saints defense has allowed 16 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• The Buccaneers defense has allowed just 2.8 yards per carry to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.3
• The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 145 times this season — most in NFL.
• The Saints have faced a blitz 52 times this season — fewest in NFL.
• Tom Brady has been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts this season — tied for best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 6%
• Drew Brees has been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts this season — tied for best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 6%
• Vegas has an implied total of 27.5-23 in favor of the Bucs.
• The public likes the Bucs to win, but the Saints to cover with the under hitting.

What a duo of QBs we will get to see facing off for Sunday Night Football. This is a rematch from their Week 1 tilt that saw the Saints win 34-23. Despite Week 1’s outcome, the Bucs are the favorites here in the rematch. 

The Saints are coming into this matchup with a solid recent track record, having won each of their last four games. The Bucs have been solid as well, winning each of their last three. Their only two losses this season came against the Bears and this very Saints team.

The offensive stats are split here, making this a tough game to decide. Neither team has been superb when it comes to converting third downs this season, but the Saints have a slight advantage there. The Bucs strike back, having converted 77.4% of their RZ drives into a score compared to 62% for the Saints. On defense, we see the Bucs take the advantage in most categories, which is where they will need to impose their will to make a stand to win this one. I think they even the series as well, but it could be close.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 27-24

Picks: Saints +4.5, Over 50.5