NFL Pick’em Wild Card Round

NFL Picks

NFL Pick'em Wild Card Round

We made it through the full regular season of the NFL! It wasn’t always pretty with COVID running rampant and affecting contests weekly. Nevertheless, here we are in the first round of the playoffs and ready for more action. If you’ve been following our weekly pick’em column all season, you’ll know we had a pretty successful year. We went 170-86 (66%) on straight-up picks and 132-123 (52%) against the spread. Our over/under picks was the only thing that didn’t make the 50% mark, but just barely at a record of 124-130 (49%). Overall, this was great accuracy against the industry and ranked top 15 at Tallysight among 780 industry experts. We’re bringing the same process that brought us success throughout the regular season to the postseason to help provide you picks for each game.

For this article, we dig through every game of the Wild Card Playoffs slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings. Let’s get wild!

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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) (O/U 51.5)

The Colts are averaging 28.2 PPG this season.
The Bills have allowed 23.4 PPG overall this season and just 18 PPG over their last three games.
The Bills are averaging 31.3 PPG overall this season (second-most) and 47.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts have allowed 22.6 PPG this season.
The home team has won each of the last six matchups between these teams dating back to 2006.
The OVER is 10-5-1 for the Bills this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The OVER hit by an average of 6.3 points for the Bills this season.
The OVER is 9-7 for the Colts this season.
The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight games between these teams.
The Bills are 11-5 ATS this season-best in the NFL.
The Bills covered the spread by an average of 5.6 points this season.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
The Colts are 3-0 ATS in their last three Wild Card games.
Vegas has an implied total of 29-22.5 in favor of the Bills.
The public likes the Bills to win and cover with the under hitting.

The first matchup here features the second-seed Bills vs. the seventh-seed Colts. The winner of this matchup will face the Chiefs, who got the first-round bye. The Colts just missed out on being the fourth seed when the Titans snatched away the AFC South title by beating the Texans.

The Colts finished the season winning four of their last five games against a mix of competition. They beat the Texans twice, who were falling apart by the end of the season. They destroyed the Raiders 44-27 and beat the Jags 28-14 in Week 17, getting redemption for their Week 1 loss. Their only losses over their last six games came against fellow playoff opponents the Titans and Steelers. They kept the game within four points against the Steelers but got blown out 26-45 by the Titans. The Colts failed to cover the spread in their last four games, and this is the first game they’re coming into as an underdog since their Week 5 tilt against the Browns and only their second game as an underdog all season. However, they have been favored by fewer than two points five times this season, including that Week 5 game against the Browns. Philip Rivers was a decent bridge QB this season, while their top-10 defense did most of the heavy lifting.

The Bills had a historic season for their franchise with Josh Allen taking a huge leap forward and offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs looking every bit the part of an elite franchise wide receiver. They finished in first place in the AFC East with a 13-3 record. They have won six straight coming into the playoffs and nine of their last 10 games, with their only loss during that span being against the Cardinals by way of the instant classic, “Hail Murray.” They notably knocked off the Dolphins last week 56-26 despite coming into the game as 3.5-point underdogs, eliminating the Fins from the playoffs.

When comparing stats, the Bills offense has a distinct advantage. They led the league in third-down conversion percentage while scoring the second-most points and second-most total yards. The Colts were still top 10 in both offensive points and total yards and surprisingly had the better rushing attack compared to the Bills. The Colts were also much more careful with the ball, turning it over just 15 times on offense (third-fewest in the NFL) compared to 22 times for the Bills.

The advantage shifts towards the Colts on defense. Overall, their unit was top-10, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards and fourth-fewest offensive plays per game to their opponents. Limiting turnovers will be a big key to this game as both defenses rank top six in takeaways. The Bills defense was slightly better when it came to third-down conversions allowed, while the Colts were slightly better in red-zone defense.

With recent form considered, it’s hard not to like the Bills to make a push deep into the playoffs this season. They have completely dominated their recent opponents beating each of their last six opponents by 10 points or more. Even in their only loss in their last 10 games, they still put up 30 points. The Colts don’t have the difference-makers that the Bills have, like Allen and Diggs, who are capable of completely controlling a game. The Bills winning is the most comfortable bet here. Despite the Bills being the best team ATS this season, I could see the Colts defense keeping this game close and keeping the total in check, giving me less confidence in the spread and total.

Final Prediction: Bills win 30-23

Picks: Bills -6.5, Over 51.5

LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4) (O/U 42.5)

The Rams are averaging 23.2 PPG overall this season and just 15.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks have allowed 23.2 PPG overall this season but just 15.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks are averaging 28.7 PPG overall this season but just 22 PPG over their last three games.
The Rams have allowed 18.5 PPG overall this season (fewest in the NFL), but they’ve allowed 23.5 PPG on the road.
The home team is 5-0 in the last five games between these teams.
The Rams are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Seahawks.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last three games between these teams, including both games this season.
The UNDER is 12-4 for the Rams this season — second-most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 9-7 for the Seahawks this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.2-19.2 in favor of the Seahawks.
The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the under hitting.

We get our first of two matchups between division rivals in this expanded version of the Wild Card Round. This can be a double-edged sword when analyzing games for betting purposes. It gives us extensive head-to-head matchups to look over, but divisional games are often played very closely, which leads to a lot of uncertainty. This case is no different as these teams split their head-to-head series this season, with the home team taking away the win in each game and splitting the spread. These teams just played each other two weeks ago with the Seahawks winning, 20-9.

A lot can change in a short amount of time in the NFL, and for the Rams, things have changed for the worse. Jared Goff looks pretty unlikely to play being just 12 days removed from thumb surgery by gametime. Without Goff in the lineup last week, the Rams turned to former AAF star QB John Wolford under center. Wolford threw for 231 scoreless yards with one INT against the Cardinals. That’s not very promising production going back up against a Seahawks team that held Goff to a similar stat line two weeks ago. The Rams didn’t score a single offensive TD in that game. The Rams have lost two of their last three games coming into this including their demoralizing loss to the Jets. They’ve seen the under hit often this season, including each of their last four games. Their defense remains a serious threat, but the offense is far from productive at the moment.

The Seahawks finished the season strong winning each of their last four games and six of their last seven. Despite their wins, they have struggled to cover the spread often in the back half of the season. They have seen the under hit in seven of their last eight games, but the total in this game is the lowest they have seen this season and the lowest set for the Wild Card round.

The stats are hard to trust for this game with Goff unlikely to play and the Rams missing other key pieces on offense. The Seahawks have the clear edge on offense while the Rams will hope that their defense will be strong enough to get them through to a matchup against the winner of the Washington/Tampa Bay game. The Rams are simply falling apart heading into this matchup and a similar score to what we saw two weeks ago is likely.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 21-13

Picks: Seahawks -4, Under 42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington Football Team (O/U 45)

The Bucs are averaging 30.8 PPG overall this season (third-most) and 40.7 PPG over their last three games.
Washington has allowed 20.6 PPG overall this season and just 18 PPG over their last three games.
Washington is averaging 20.9 PPG overall this season and just 16 PPG over their last three games.
The Bucs have allowed 22.2 PPG this season.
The road team has won four of the last five games between these teams.
Washington has won three of the last four games between these teams.
Both teams are 9-7 ATS this season.
The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They failed to cover in each of their last two.
The OVER is 9-7 for the Bucs this season.
The UNDER is 11-5 for Washington this season — tied for third-most in the NFL.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last five games for Washington.
Vegas has an implied total of 26.8-18.2 in favor of the Bucs.
The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the under hitting.

This is one of the more lopsided looking matchups of Wild Card weekend with the Bucs being the second-biggest favorites. Washington made it in with the abysmal record of 7-9 while much better teams were left out of contention. This should probably change in the future, but in true Tom Brady fashion, he gets a cakewalk in the first round of the playoffs.

The Bucs finished the season strong winning each of their last four games. They put up over 40 points in back-to-back weeks against teams with nothing to play for in the Lions and Falcons. When looking back on the season for the Bucs, they really only had one impressive win against a playoff-caliber team when they beat the Packers 38-10 back in Week 6. Otherwise, they lost once to the Bears, Rams, and Chiefs. They also lost to the Saints twice.

Washington started the season looking completely lost. Around the halfway point they were sitting at just a 2-7 record and far away from contention. They were rejuvenated by Alex Smith’s return under center and finally cut ties with Dwayne Haskins who had no business being on an NFL team, let alone starting. They wound up winning five of their last seven games and get to represent the putrid NFC East.

The stats are pretty obvious when comparing here. The Bucs are a top-three offense when it comes to points for and boasts a top-five passing attack. Their glaring weakness is their running game which is a bottom-five committee. They have been careful not to turn the ball over much but have been below average when it comes to their pace of play. Washington’s offensive numbers simply don’t represent that of a playoff contender. They’re bottom three in total offensive yards and below average in total points. They have set a faster pace than the Bucs but have been far less efficient.

The defense will really be the matchup to watch here. The Bucs have one of the league’s best passing attacks and are very one dimensional on offense, but they’ll be facing a Washington that has been one of the strongest passing defenses all season. They’ve allowed the second-fewest total yards and passing yards to their opponents this season and have still been an above-average rushing defense. If Washington can neutralize the Bucs’ passing game and force them to run, this could be much closer than anticipated and that’s their best bet to play spoiler.

All-in-all, you’re not going to bet completely against one of the biggest favorites of the weekend to lose outright. Something that really stands out to me looking at this matchup is how these teams have played against common opponents. The Bucs beat the Panthers twice, Washington lost to them. The Bucs beat the Giants once, Washington lost to them twice. The Bucs destroyed the Lions by 40 points, Washington lost to them by three.

I do think that the Washington defense will show up though and keep this within one score, making them an intriguing, yet still risky bet.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 21-17

Picks: Washington +8.5, Under 45

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tennessee Titans (O/U 54.5)

The Ravens are averaging 29.2 PPG overall this season and 35 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have allowed 27.4 PPG overall this season and 34.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans are averaging 30.7 PPG overall this season and 33.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Ravens have allowed 18.9 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and 10 PPG over their last three games.
The road team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
The Titans have won three of their last four games against the Ravens.
The OVER is 12-3-1 for the Titans this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The OVER has hit by an average of 7.7 points for the Titans this season — most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 9-7 for the Ravens this season.
The Ravens are 10-6 ATS this season — tied for third-most in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.8-25.8 in favor of the Ravens.
The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the over hitting.

Well, here we are again. I am jacked for this matchup as it should be one of the most exciting of the weekend. The Titans ended the Ravens’ magical season at this point last season in the playoffs despite being 10-point ‘dogs. They also beat the Ravens earlier this season despite being six-point ‘dogs. Can they do it again?

The Titans ended the season pretty strong winning three of their last four games. Their one hiccup in the last month saw them get dismantled by the Packers, 14-40. Aside from that matchup, the Titans manhandled weak opponents in the last month against the Jags, Lions, and Texans. They have failed to cover in each of their last two games but they’ve consistently seen the over hit in seven of their last eight games.

The Ravens finished their season equally strong but also against some weaker opponents. They won each of their last five games, but those were against the Cowboys, Browns, Jags, Giants, and Bengals. The Browns were the only respectable team in that lot and that game ended in wild fashion in a 47-42 shootout.

The stats are intriguing to dive into here. The Titans have the stronger offense on paper. They rank fourth in points for this season and recorded the second-most total yards on offense. Both teams were very efficient when it came to moving the chains, but the Titans ran more plays this season and secured the fourth-most first downs. The Titans were also more efficient in the red zone, scoring on 75% of red-zone drives compared to 63.3% for the Ravens. The Titans were also one of the most careful teams this season, turning the ball over the second-fewest times in the league.

The glaring weakness in this matchup is on defense, and especially lately. The Ravens allowed the second-fewest points to opponents and were top 10 in fewest yards allowed. They had the second-best third-down conversion rate allowed to opponents and were more stout in the red zone than the Titans as well. The Titans have simply been gashed regularly this season as they’ve allowed 30 points or more eight times this season.

It’s hard to bet against the Titans given their success as underdogs against the Ravens, but the process just points towards the Ravens still being the better team. Their recent form also supports that. I would still be comfortable placing a bet on the Titans if you can get them at +3.5 or better.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 30-27

Picks: Over 54.5

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Bears are averaging 23.2 PPG overall this season and 30 PPG over their last three games.
The Saints have allowed 21.1 PPG overall this season and 24.8 PPG at home.
The Saints are averaging 30.1 PPG overall this season (fifth-most) and 38 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears have allowed 23.1 PPG overall this season and 26.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Bears.
The Saints are 9-7 ATS this season.
The OVER is 10-6 for the Saints this season.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six games for the Bears.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-19 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win, but the Bears to cover with the over hitting.

This is the most lopsided matchup of the Wild Card Round on paper this season. The Saints come into this as the biggest favorites of the weekend while the Bears snuck into the playoffs with just a .500 record. These teams met earlier this season at Chicago in Week 8. The Saints needed overtime to beat them 26-23 and that was in the Nick Foles era for the Bears. We saw seven field goals kicked in that game as both teams struggled to move the ball. The Saints went 2-13 on third-down conversions while the Bears went 5-15. The offensive totals were nearly identical for both teams in that matchup. The Saints committed three fumbles in that game but lost none while Foles turned the ball over once on an interception. If the Bears could have managed to recover just one of those Saint’s fumbles in that game, the outcome could have been completely different.

The Bears are stumbling into the playoffs despite having lost seven of their last 10 games. Like a few teams we have covered so far in the playoffs, they finished the season fairly hot thanks to some favorable matchups. They strung together a three-game winning streak against the Texans, Vikings, and Jags before losing in Week 17 to the Packers. They also put up 30 points in a loss to the Lions just before that.

The Saints were one of the hottest teams in the league this season which earned them the second seed in the NFC. They rode a nine-game winning streak through the heart of the season led by some of the best defensive efforts we’ve seen all season. That was thwarted by rookie Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in Week 14 followed by a loss to the Chiefs in Week 15. The Saints re-established their dominance in Week 16, destroying the Vikings on Christmas 52-33. The Saints impressively won all six of their divisional tilts this season and, notably for this matchup, beat the Bears on the road this season. When you get a top-five offense matched with a top-five defense, you’re essentially a lock to make the playoffs.

Comparing stats is pretty telling of how this matchup will likely go. The Saints managed to be a top-five scoring offense despite ranking just 12th in total yards and 21st in passing yards. They won by dominating the time of possession, holding the ball the second-most of any team in the league this season. They also managed to rank top 10 in rushing yards, first downs, fewest turnovers, number of offensive plays, and third-down conversion percentage. The Bears have been abysmal for most of the season on offense. They’re below the league average in essentially every category and notably had the second-worst third-down conversion percentage in the league. That alone could be a recipe for disaster considering the Saints’ defense ranked top 10 in third-down defense.

While the Bears are generally associated with having elite defenses, that hasn’t exactly been the case this season. They ranked just 14th in points allowed this season and fell just outside of the top 10 in total yards allowed to their opponents. Their strongest suit has been their stellar third-down defense as we saw in the matchup against the Saints earlier this season. The Bears have also been better than the Saints in red-zone defense, allowing scores on just 54.7% of opponent RZ drives. Those are the only real edges they have over the Saints as the Saints defense has been the better unit overall. The Saints ranked top five in fewest points allowed to opponents and fewest total yards. They also ranked third in the league in turnovers forced while the Bears rank 25th in that category.

All-in-all, the numbers, and trends strongly support the outcome of this game greatly favoring the Saints. They had their struggles against the Bears despite a win earlier this season, but I think being at home and having a clutch running game to lean back on will easily catapult them into a daunting matchup against the Packers in the next round.

Final Prediction: Saints win 27-20

Picks: Bears +9.5, Under 47.5

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) (O/U 47.5)

The Browns are averaging 25.5 PPG overall this season but just 20 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers have allowed 19.5 PPG overall this season (third-fewest) and 25 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers are averaging 26 PPG overall this season but just 22.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Browns have allowed 26.2 PPG overall this season but just 17 PPG over their last three games.
The home team is 6-0-1 SU in the last seven games between these teams.
The Steelers are 9-2-1 SU in their last 12 games against the Browns.
The Steelers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Browns.
The Steelers are 10-6 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
The Browns are 6-10 ATS this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four games between these teams.
The OVER is 9-7 for the Browns this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 26.8-20.8 in favor of the Steelers.
The public likes the Steelers to win and cover with the under hitting.

The final game of Wild Card weekend should be a dandy. A solid divisional rivalry on the table where the best possible outcome is someone getting bashed over the head with their own helmet. The spread in this game has seen the most movement of any line for this weekend with the Steelers opening up as just 3.5-point favorites. It has moved to seeing them sit just under one score now at -6 at most books.

The Browns finally made it back to the playoffs! They had some down-right dominating performances this season but also flat-out didn’t show up on a few occasions. Unfortunately, one of those occasions was in Pittsburgh against this Steelers team back in Week 6 where they were beaten 7-38. In that game, Baker Mayfield had easily his worst game of the season throwing for just 119 yards with one TD, two picks, and four sacks. We saw Case Keenum come in to relieve him. The Browns notably did not have running back Nick Chubb for that game who is a difference-maker for this offense. Aside from that disappointing loss, the Browns also got beat 6-16 by the Raiders this season and were in the way of the Jets’ late-season tear, losing to them 16-23 in Week 16. It took everything they had in them to beat the Steelers sans Big Ben in Week 17, 24-22.

The Steelers received more criticism this season than probably any team in the history of the league with a 12-4 record. They started the season out winning 11 straight, but people weren’t really buying it. Turned out, a lot of those people were right. The Steelers folded like cheap lawn furniture in the final quarter of the regular season, losing three straight to Washington, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. The loss to Buffalo made sense, but they should have been able to beat Washington and the Bengals.

With both teams leaving us with a lot of uncertainty, it’s time to refer to their stats. They are pretty evenly matched when it came to points for, but the Browns had the edge in total yards ranking 16th in the league while the Steelers ranked 25th. That was led by the Browns boasting a top three rushing attack while the Steelers running game was the worst in the league this season. The Browns also secured more first downs this season and boasted a better third-down conversion percentage. They were also more efficient than the Steelers in the red zone, converting 73.6% of RZ drives into a score.

The defense is where we see a strong shift favoring the Steelers. They are a top-three unit overall this season, ranking third in points and total yards allowed to opponents. They also allowed the second-fewest first downs to opponents while forcing the second-most turnovers as well. The Browns have had a solid rushing defense this season, but with the Steelers offering nothing in the form of a rushing threat this season, that won’t get them far. The Browns also allowed James Conner to rush for over 100 yards in their early-season bout which shows that they’re not impenetrable.

Personally, I want to back the Browns in this one. I don’t care much for this Steelers team and they just haven’t passed the eye test as often as you would like to see this season to be considered a dominant playoff contender. Despite that, there is enough in the process here pointing towards them winning this game, but I like the Browns to at least keep it close.

Final Prediction: Steelers win 27-24

Picks: Browns +6, Over 47.5