Le'Veon Bell Suspended First Four Weeks; DeAngelo Williams Becomes Hot Commodity
Today has been a hard day for running backs in the world of fantasy. Per ESPN and a variety of other sources, Pittsburgh Steelers Running Back Le'Veon Bell has been suspended for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season for missing a drug test. This will be the second time in as many seasons that Bell has been suspended for a violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy. Although he plans to appeal the suspension, Bell will likely still miss the first four weeks of the NFL season.
The bad news that comes out of this is that DeAngelo Williams' value might become far too high for prospective Bell owners. Before this news came out, Williams' ADP was around 122, putting him right around Round 10/Round 11. Now, though, with the guarantee that he will play at the very least 4 games, Williams may see his ADP skyrocket. The fact that he was so effective last year will also help out. In 2015, DeAngelo Williams averaged 4.5 yards per carry, with just over 900 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. This allowed Williams to finish as RB4 in standard scoring last year, even though he only got more than 10 carries in 8 out of 16 games last year. Williams' contributions didn't just end in the run game, either. He was able to haul in 40 passes for over 350 yards as well. This makes Williams a dynamic dual-threat in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, and a valuable commodity in both standard and PPR leagues. With stats like this where he played a limited role for half the season, Williams is certainly going to soar up draft boards within the next few days. To make things even more enticing, 2 out of the first 4 games will see the Steelers facing teams whose run defenses ranked towards the very bottom of the league--the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles surrendered the 26th and 32nd most rushing yards per game. Williams could have some pretty big games in the first weeks of the 2016 season, enough to give his fantasy owner a leg up on his competition.
Another cause for concern in regards to Williams' ADP is that in June, Steelers Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley revealed that the team is going to try to use Williams more this season. This increased usage will allow Williams to produce more, but to the ire of Bell owners, will likely cause Le'Veon to lose some carries. Again, this is both good news and bad news for Williams owners. The good news is that Williams may not become useless after this first four games. We saw this last year after Bell ended up lost for the season during a game against Cincinnati-Bell got hurt, Williams went on his age-defying tear. The bad news is, Williams owners will likely have to wait and see just how much Bell and Williams split carries following Bell's return, and the weekly game of sit-or-start that fantasy owners may have to play can end up causing headaches and costing matchups. Though Williams can be expected to gain more work, following his first 4 starts, nothing is a guarantee. The only guarantee is Williams' ADP is going to go up, and if owners want in on some Pittsburgh backfield stock, they're going to have to pay a premium.
Le'Veon Bell now comes with even more risks. With this second suspension, Bell has just crossed the threshold of Stage 2 of the NFL Substance Abuse Program. This means that if Bell is caught with marijuana again, he could miss anywhere from 10 games to a whole season. This is certainly worth noting to anyone in keeper leagues-Bell is a risky pick. As mentioned previously, the coaching staff wants to try to split carries more between these 2 stud running backs, so there's no guarantee that Bell will be able to continue to put up the superstar numbers that he has had to this point in his career. Bell has also been hurt and missed time in 2 out of his 3 NFL seasons. Though the 2013 injury was just a foot sprain, he also had a concussion that luckily didn't end up costing him any games. The 2015 injury was a significant MCL tear, which can definitely be cause for some more alarm. Though NFL players are coming back better from injuries than they have before (Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson in 2012 being prime examples), it is still worrisome that a player who is already guaranteed to miss 4 games is also injury prone.
There is, however, some good news about the aforementioned information. All of these factors will likely push down Bell's ADP. A player who was once considered a lock for at the very least a Top-5 pick may now see his ADP slip as far as even Round 2, which can be an absolute steal. If you project his 6-game 2015 stats over a full 16 game season, you get the following stats: 301 carries, 1483 yards, 8 touchdowns, 69 targets, 64 receptions, 363 yards. He didn't have any to project, but it is likely he may have contributed a few receiving touchdowns as well. Just those numbers mentioned here, however, would've put him as the Number One Running Back in Standard Scoring Leagues. To further put things in to perspective, Bell was STILL ranked the number one running back in 2015 by Pro Football Focus. One can argue that this is because he did very well in a small sample size, but looking at the run defenses the Steelers faced in the stretch that Bell was healthy, the average ranking in rushing yards allowed per game was 13th. So Bell, coming off of a suspension, was still able to torch a variety of top rushing defenses.
For those looking to draft Bell, let everyone else worry about his injury history and his suspension and laugh all the way to the bank when you're able to take one of the most talented overall running backs in the NFL in the second round. However, make sure you build a solid starting lineup, because you may have to be ready as early as round 6 to pull the trigger on DeAngelo Williams.
Jul 23, 2016