QB Forecasts

Josh Allen 2022 Outlook: Reigning QB1 On Track To Defend Title

The magic that is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen took the NFL by storm once again in 2021. Some might have thought the former first-round pick was due for regression after being named to the Pro Bowl, finishing second in MVP voting, and signing a big extension. Nope. Instead, he bounced back with 409 completions, 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He remained a threat on the ground, adding 763 yards and six scores with his legs. Despite playing all 17 games, he still posted a career-low 26 sacks. Allen finished the year as the QB1 in fantasy. He led the league in fantasy points (417.6) and fantasy points per game (24.6) while finishing third in fantasy points per dropback (0.58). Although Allen didn't have the best advanced football metrics, he continued to show impressive strides as a passer. He made better decisions about when to throw, run, or even just take a sack. He also dismantled some of the best defenses in the league, securing the Bills' second consecutive AFC East title before taking Patrick Mahomes on an incredible back-and-forth clash in the AFC Championship. The Bills may have lost Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders this offseason, but their absences coincide with the timely breakouts of Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox as well as the key additions of Jamison Crowder and O.J. Howard in free agency. Buffalo also drafted running back James Cook, whose youth and prowess in the backfield should take additional pressure off Allen and allow the offense to thrive. He is the consensus QB1 heading into the 2022 fantasy football season and should be your top target if you're looking to draft a quarterback early.

Patrick Mahomes 2022 Outlook: Finally Overvalued In Fantasy

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has caused many late-round quarterback drafters to reevaluate their strategy since he first lit the league on fire in 2018. The 26-year-old's performance has not only ranked among the leaders at his position but has provided week-winning upside with a low bust rate in his four years as a starter. He has failed to throw for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in only 10 of his 61 games since assuming the starting role, five of which came during a slump last year. Over those four years, he has finished as the QB1, QB7, QB4, and QB4, with the QB7 finish in 2019 resulting from two and a half missed games and culminating in a Super Bowl win. The question for Mahomes is how he and the offense will function with the departure of wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami, and the additions of wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and rookie Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce remains a stalwart at tight end but will be turning 33. All of these question marks make it difficult to warrant Mahomes' ADP just inside the top 50 as the QB2, especially with so much value at the position.

Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook: Dual-Threat Quarterback Has Overall QB1 Upside in Year Three

Jalen Hurts has been fantasy football gold his first two seasons in the NFL. As a rookie, he finished as QB7 on a per-game basis, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game (PPG) in four starts. In 2021, he finished as QB6, averaging 21.4 PPG. But last year was a tale of two seasons for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Between Weeks 1 and 7, they passed nearly 60% of the time. From Week 8 on, however, they passed just 41.5%. A complete 180 in terms of a game plan, which actually suppressed Hurts' fantasy value. In his first seven games, he averaged 25 PPG, while in his last eight games he averaged just 18.3 PPG. 18.3 PPG was still good for QB10 on a per-game basis during that stretch, but his upside was capped. Even still, it's clear to see that his rushing ability gives him an extremely safe floor at the quarterback position. In fact, he's scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in a game in just three of his 19 career starts because he's averaged 55.6 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Now let's project forward to 2022. Shane Steichen will be taking over offensive playcalling duties from Nick Sirianni. In 2020, he was the offensive coordinator calling plays for the Los Angeles Chargers, who led the league in plays per game (70.4). Even if it's a 50/50 run/pass split, that would mean Hurts still airs it out 35 times per game. When he did that in 2021, he was an elite fantasy QB1. What else happened this offseason? Oh, you know, the Eagles just went out and traded for Hurts' best friend, who also just so happens to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in A.J. Brown. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert form one of the best pass-catching trios in the league that should enable Jalen Hurts to take his game to the next level in Year Three. At worst, he's a low-end QB1. At best, he's the overall QB1 in fantasy football.

Justin Fields 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Make-or-Break Year After Strong End To The 2021 Season

The Chicago Bears entered last year with rookie quarterback Justin Fields sitting on the bench and starting veteran Andy Dalton instead. Of course, that never made sense and was going to change at some throughout the season--and obviously, having drafted Fields with the 11th-overall pick in the first round, that was probably the right move to make as soon as the year hit Week 2. The growing pains were massive for Fields as he didn't even top eight fantasy points n any of his first four starts for the Bears. From that point on, though, and barring a couple of stinkers against Tampa Bay and Baltimore, Fields completed a much better and promising second half of the season before getting off the field for the remainder of the year by Week 16, thus missing three games. Starting in Week 6 and up until he got done for the season, Fields averaged a 14.6 FPPG (that includes mediocre outings of 3.2 and 3.5 FP against TB/BAL) while showcasing above-average rushing chops on top of his passing. However, the latter part of his skill set should improve next season if Fields wants to keep starting games and build a strong NFL career. Fields threw 10 interceptions to just seven touchdowns, the second-worst ratio among QBs with at least 200 pass attempts last year. Another concerning point was the lack of pass plays by the Bears with Fields on the gridiron: the rookie attempted just 270 total passes and fewer than 25 per game, the lowest figure among the same group of players. The Bears receivers all had down years--yes, including now-gone Allen Robinson II--but Fields should do a little bit more anyway. It's reasonable to project Fields for a top-24 finish in 2022 if he completes the season without missing any start and a potential high-end QB2 finish if his rushing prowess and tricks click, helping his overall numbers.

Joe Burrow 2022 Outlook: Safe Top-12 Option with Revamped Offensive Line

Joe Burrow was phenomenal in his second year coming off a torn ACL he suffered as a rookie. He completed 70.4% of his passes for 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions and led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl. He even added 118 yards and two more scores on the ground. Those numbers were good for QB10 on the season. While there's certainly room for improvement, Burrow and the Bengals won't have it easy in 2022. They have the third-toughest schedule this season, with their opponents having a combined win percentage of 0.536 (154-133-2) in 2021. However, the Bengals focused their attention this offseason on the offensive line to keep Burrow upright after allowing the third-most sacks (55) last season. They brought in RT La'el Collins, C Ted Karras, and G Alex Cappa, which immediately upgrades three of the spots on the offensive line. Pair these three with LT Jonah Williams and G Jackson Carman, and you're looking at a very formidable unit that should allow fewer sacks and give Burrow more time in a clean pocket. That's a dangerous formula for defenses trying to stop this high-powered offense that features Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. With nearly the entire offense intact, despite switching out C.J. Uzomah for Hayden Hurst, Burrow should once again thrive in 2022 despite the tough schedule. Because he doesn't have much rushing upside, Burrow should be considered a low-end QB1 with top-10 upside this season.