N’Keal Harry Fantasy Impact in 2019

Patriots WR N’Keal Harry Fantasy Impact

The New England Patriots selected N’Keal Harry No. 32 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. His skill set, athletic ability, and collegiate production should have you excited about Harry’s fantasy potential in Josh McDaniels offense in New England this upcoming season. This article will identify the pros, cons, and fantasy impact he will have this upcoming season. 

Pros

Harry had the sixth highest grade prospect amongst all wide receivers according to NFL.com. Lance Zierlein, Draft for NFL.com, had this to say about the former Sun Devils wide receiver:

Back-shoulder boss who thrives with contested catch opportunities outside the numbers but lacks explosive traits. Harry’s ability to body-up opponents and win with ball skills is undeniable, but his inability to find a threatening top gear or shake loose from tight man coverage must be accounted for within his new employer’s scheme. His experience playing inside should help and teams will love his impact as a run-blocker. His competitiveness and ability to come down with the ball could make him a productive member of wide receiver trio in short order.

Harry averaged 5.8 receptions, 78.1 receiving yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game during his three seasons at Arizona State. The Caribbean island of Saint Vincent native surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons. Harry will look to continue that trend as a rookie catching passes from future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady in the Patriots high powered offense. Another trend that has occurred in New England as part of their offseason strategy is to prioritize taller receivers. Were you aware that five of the six wide receivers who are new to the Patriots are 6’2 or taller? The team is looking to create mismatches and Harry excels at making contested catches considering he has a 38.5 vertical jump. Brady completed 78.7 percent of his pass attempts on throws to open targets according to Pro Football Focus. This ranked third in the NFL. Brady also ranked fourth on pass attempts where wide receivers had two or more steps of separation according to PFF with a completion percentage of 67 percent. The soon to be 42-year old quarterback struggled on “tight throws” according to PFF. He ranked 14th among quarterbacks in this metric which is defined by a defender being within an arm’s length of the target or in a passing window to discourage a throw. Harry and the other wide receivers that the Patriots acquired could help Brady in this area in 2019. 

Patriots WR N’Keal Harry can go up and get it, he had 17 contested catches a season ago with Arizona State pic.twitter.com/wmNhWIiRtx

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 15, 2019

Harry’s versatility is also something that Brady and McDaniels could leverage. He has the skill set to play in the slot or outside and is an excellent run blocker. These traits are highly coveted by coaches. There may be very few offensive snaps that Harry is not on the field. Since 2013 the Patriots wide receivers have averaged 20.4 targets, 13 receptions, and 158.3 receiving yards per game. There is a good chance that Harry and Julian Edelman will own a high percentage of those targets and receiving yards this season. The retirement of Rob Gronkowski could free up even more opportunities for the Patriots wide receivers in 2019. Our very own Jody Smith is also very bullish on Harry:

As far as landing spots, it couldn’t have gone any better for Harry, who not only gets to learn his craft with the league’s all-time greatest signal-caller, but also should step right into a starting gig with a Patriots’ offense that lost Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those three combined to account for 155 targets last season. If Harry gets even half of those looks, he’ll be in an excellent position to make an instant impact, especially in the red zone.    

Let’s review some of the challenges Harry will face in 2019.

Cons

Belichick’s Patriots teams do not have a history of drafting wide receivers in the first round. Chad Jackson was the highest drafted receiver (No. 36 overall) in the 2006 NFL Draft. He finished his Patriots career with 13 catches for 152 yards, and three touchdowns. Jackson’s time in New England was marred by injuries. Edelman and Deion Branch have been the most successful Patriots receivers drafted under the Belichick regime. Could Harry become the third? 

The wide receiver position has been historically difficult to learn for the Patriots. The team’s coaching staff has experienced a lot of changes this offseason. A high percentage of them, including wide receivers coach Chad O’Shea, left for the Miami Dolphins with former Patriots linebackers Brian Flores. Joe Judge will split his time between coaching the special team units and the wide receivers. Brady and Edelman will help Harry transition from the collegiate to the pro game, but this is not an ideal situation for a rookie wide receiver in the NFL.

Brady and the Patriots offensive scheme demand a lot of its wide receivers. Here is a quote from the six-time Super Bowl champion regarding their offense:

It’s a tough system to play in for a receiver. I definitely don’t think it’s easy, and I know that because we’ve had a lot of guys from a lot of different places and we’ve had a lot of memorization. Being on the same page with the quarterback and changing routes at the line of scrimmage and changing routes in the middle of the play and you’ve got to be on the same page.

Brady is not very forgiving of mental errors. Many notable wide receivers have come and go in New England including Chad Johnson, Eric Decker, and Michael Floyd. It will be critical for Harry to use the time before training camp to thoroughly understand the Patriots offense and become calibrated with Brady. 

The Patriots have added a number of offensive players this offseason including Demaryius Thomas, Dontrelle Inman, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Ben Watson. The offense runs more effectively whenever Brady spreads the football around. 

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Conclusion 

The Patriots selection of Harry in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft addressed a pressing need and implies that he will be a key contributor. Here are our 2019 projections for Edelman and Harry.  Harry has the potential to exceed this projection. It is in the realm of possibilities that he eclipses 900 receiving yards. There have only been 10 wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2000 who have exceeded 900 receiving yards. 

Harry’s will play a key role in one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses and catch passes from the greatest quarterback of all time. I like his chances of becoming the 11th wide receiver on this list. What do you think? 

• Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData and Pro Football Focus
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