NFL player prop season is officially open with betting lines featuring players moving to new teams and new situations in 2019. While we all have our opinions on how these players will fair in their new landing spots, these prop bets give us a glimpse into how the betting community thinks their seasons will go. The following is my take on some of the biggest NFL Free Agency prop bets of 2019.
Nick Foles Props
- Over/Under 12.5 Interceptions (-115)
- Over/Under 3,500.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over/Under 21.5 Touchdown Passes (-115)
Is Nick Foles destined for a stellar season in Jacksonville? The oddsmakers don’t think so. These QB prop bets are very modest, to say the least. A quarterback comparison from last season would be Matthew Stafford who had 21TD, 11 INT and 3,777 yards.
That being said, if Foles just does the bare minimum and is the starter for 16 games, he should easily pass these numbers. In 2017 since joining the Eagles for the second time Foles has started in 12 games including the playoffs. During those games, he has thrown for 3,251 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That averages out to 271 passing yards/game, 1.75 touchdowns/game, and .83 interceptions per game. Over a 16-game season that projects to 4,336 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
In addition, if you consider the league averages over the past two seasons in regards to passing yards/game (231), passing touchdowns (1.53), and interceptions were thrown (.82) you still want to take the over with Foles. With those averages, Foles would project to 3,691 passing yards, 24.5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The league is too pass happy to not take this bet. This prop bet might be something to consider, especially
Odell Beckham Jr. Props
- Over 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
- Under 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Browns fans are thrilled with the trade that sent Beckham from New York to Cleveland, but sportsbooks have set a modest line for him in 2019. Can OBJ surpass 1,100 receiving yards?
Beckham has only played one full season in his five year NFL career. Which was probably one of the reasons the Giants decided to trade him, despite getting completly fleeced in the trade. However, in the seasons where OBJ played at least 12 games, he has surpassed the 1,100 receiving yards marker.
| Year | Tm | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Lng | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% |
| 2014 | NYG | 12 | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.3 | 12 | 80 | 7.6 | 108.8 | 70.00% |
| 2015 | NYG | 15 | 158 | 96 | 1450 | 15.1 | 13 | 87 | 6.4 | 96.7 | 60.80% |
| 2016 | NYG | 16 | 169 | 101 | 1367 | 13.5 | 10 | 75 | 6.3 | 85.4 | 59.80% |
| 2017 | NYG | 4 | 41 | 25 | 302 | 12.1 | 3 | 48 | 6.3 | 75.5 | 61.00% |
| 2018 | NYG | 12 | 124 | 77 | 1052 | 13.7 | 6 | 51 | 6.4 | 87.7 | 62.10% |
Baker Mayfield’s yards/attempt with Freddie Kitchens as the helm was a whopping 8.82. With better quarterback play in 2019, Beckham is a lock to pass 1,100 receiving yards. The best part is he will still probably accomplish it even he misses a game or two. Keep in mind Beckham’s career yards per game of 92.8 is the second-most in NFL history.
Antonio Brown Props
- Over/Under 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over/Under 9 Touchdowns (-115)
- Over/Under 95.5 Receptions (-115)
Unlike Beckham, Brown’s chances of passing 1,100 receiving yards are slimmer because he is seeing a significant decrease at the quarterback position. Derek Carr from Week 9 on was averaging 6.95 yards/attempt. Not good. Carr’s career average is only 6.7 yards/attempt. Also not good. Five years in Oakland and the best Carr has produced is as follows:
- In 2015 Michael Crabtree with nine touchdowns.
- In 2017 Amari Cooper had 1,153 receiving yards.
- No player has had more than the 89 receptions Crabtree had in 2016.
Brown was already due for touchdown regression based on his league-leading 15 from last year, so bet the under here. Same thing with receptions and yardage. Remember not only does Brown lose the on-field chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger by joining Oakland; he loses the most pass-heavy quarterback from a season ago. In 2018, Roethlisberger led the NFL in passes completed, pass attempts, passing yards, long passes, passing yards/game, and passing attempts/game.
After averaging 125 receptions on 180 targets between 2013 and 2015, Brown’s totals fell to 103 receptions on 162 targets over his subsequent three seasons. If we apply that same 10% new-team penalty to his most recent production numbers, we get a projection of 92.7 receptions.
Fade the hype. And the mustache.
Devin Funchess Props
- Over/Under 650.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 4.5 Touchdowns (-130)
- Under 4.5 Touchdowns (+100)
Funchess has landed in Indianapolis, and from the looks of his prop bet line, oddsmakers aren’t exactly expecting a breakout season. Frank Reich style of offense is to spread the ball around. In 2018, four players saw 68 or more targets. Four players saw 72 or more targets in the year before in Philadelphia.
Andrew Luck’s career touchdown rate is 5.2. And over the past two seasons when healthy it has been 5.9. Cam Newton last year was at 5.1 touchdown percentage and 4.5 the year prior. Funchess had eight touchdowns in 2017, and four touchdowns a season ago. Funchess also had 549 receiving yards last season, just 100 yards shy of the 2019 prop bet. Newton’s career yards/game is 231.5. Luck’s is 275.2. That in itself is too convincing. 100% take the over on all these prop bets for Funchess. The upgrade from Newton to Luck should be more than enough to get Funchess over this bet.
Le’Veon Bell Props
- Over/Under 600.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Under 1,200.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Over 1,200.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Over/Under 10.5 Touchdowns (-115)
In my opinion, oddsmakers are going to regret this prop bet.
Adam Gase has traditionally run one of the slowest-paced offenses in terms of plays per game. Miami ranked dead-last in plays per game in 2018 (54.9). Miami also had the eighth fewest rushing attempts in 2018 and the fewest in 2017. Bell has surpassed the 1,200 rushing mark twice already in his career, but one was on extreme efficiency in 2016 where he had a career-high 4.9 yards/carry. Then in 2017, he had 321 total carries which made up for his less efficient 4.0 yards/carry. The under is where to go here. But the over will come in regards to receiving yards.
For his career, Bell has averaged 42.9 receiving yards/game. That ranks 16th highest all-time for an RB and is behind Saquon Barkley (45.1) Christian McCaffrey (47.4), and Alvin Kamara (49.5) for the most of active running backs. That mark in 16 games easily beats the 600.5 receiving line. Keep in mind that though the Dolphins are slow they still do heavily favor the running back in the passing game in terms of market share. 23.7% of the total targets for Miami last year went to the RB position. That ranked 10th highest last season. With Bell’s catch rate at 78.6% and average yards per reception at 8.5, he would need approximately 71 receptions/90 targets to surpass 600 receiving yards. Based on the Dolphins in 2018 total pass attempts (454.4), Bell with a 23.7 market share would generate 108 targets. Boom goes the dynamite!
For the touchdowns, I will let this stat lead the way: Miami finished dead last in RB rush attempts inside the 10-yard line in 2017 (10) and 2018 (9). Adam Gase’s running backs have averaged just 2.7 receiving TDs over the past three seasons. Throw in the fact that Bell himself in one of the league’s most prolific offenses Bell scored just 11 touchdowns twice, it’s too close for comfort in a brand new situation.
