The Pros and Cons for Mike Trout in 2024
Mike Trout finished 2023 with a .263/.367/.490 slash line with 18 home runs in 82 games. It was yet another injury-plagued season for the superstar, diminishing his fantasy value despite still playing well when he was on the field. This has made him one of the most polarizing players in 2024, as seen by the FantasyPros consensus rankings. Some experts rank him as high as 29th overall (OF 11) and as low as 74th overall (OF 21) by others. Can Trout return to his MVP-worthy numbers or is his career officially declining? I’ll be stating the cases both for and against him for this upcoming season.
The Case For Mike Trout
Despite all the missed time, Trout continues to prove that he is one of the game’s most elite hitters when healthy. 2023 was the worst season of his career on a per-game basis, and that was still good for a 162-game pace of 36 home runs, 107 runs, and 87 RBI. In only 119 games in 2022, he totaled a whopping 85 runs, 40 home runs, and 80 RBI while slashing .283/.369/.630. That is clear MVP-level talent, and there’s no reason to think Trout isn’t still capable of that type of production. He was in the top 10 percent of the league in almost every underlying hitting metric in 2023, with a .389 xwOBA, 16% barrel rate, and 51.9% hard-hit rate which all ranked in the top 5 percent. He still showed off a 96th percentile sprint speed of 29.5 feet per second, and there is optimism that he could even start stealing bases again under new coach Ron Washington. The Angels are one of the top teams in stolen bases this spring training, with Trout even swiping one himself. A full healthy season for Trout that also includes him getting active on the basepaths would easily produce first-round fantasy numbers.
The Case Against Mike Trout
You can’t score fantasy points from the IL, which is where Trout has spent the majority of his last 3 seasons. He played 82 games in 2023, 119 in 2022, and 36 in 2021. The last time he played more than 140 games in a season was all the way back in 2016. It’s been a never-ending list of problems, including a torn thumb ligament, wrist inflammation, foot surgery, back issues, and a fractured hand. Even when Trout is on the field and “healthy”, it’s safe to assume he has some lingering injury somewhere that could be affecting his performance. Even if he does manage to stay healthy in 2024, there are flaws in his game that weren’t present during his days as a perennial MVP candidate. He started striking out a lot more in 2021 and hasn’t fixed the problem since, striking out 28.7% of the time in 2023 with a 29.3% whiff rate.
Additionally, the former 30/30 threat hasn’t even been a 30/5 threat as of late, stealing a total of 6 bases in the past 4 seasons. With other outfielders such as Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis, and Kyle Tucker all a threat for 30+ steals, there is no way for Trout to be anywhere near as valuable as them. If you draft Trout, you’re banking on an exceptional batting average, runs, home runs, and runs batted in from a player who showed a skill decline in those areas last season while also rarely being healthy enough to play. That is a lot of risk to take on for an early-round pick.
My Take
Trout is a high-risk, high-reward player that I view as a solid top-15 outfielder this season in roto leagues. The lack of stolen bases puts him behind guys in the second tier of outfielders such as Luis Robert, Randy Arozarena, and Michael Harris. However, I’d take Trout ahead of players such as Cody Bellinger or Nolan Jones, who I also think have something to prove this season. In points leagues, where the lack of stolen bases isn’t a problem and his exceptional plate discipline will shine through, I think Trout is still a top-10 outfielder with true first-round potential if he can play the full season. It’s also important to note that I’m more willing to take on risk in shallower leagues. If Trout gets injured again, you should be able to find a suitable enough replacement in a 10 or 12-team, 3-OF league. In something like a 15-team, 5-OF league, I think it’s smart to opt for a safer choice if there is one available.
