Caleb Williams Fantasy
The selection of USC QB Caleb Williams No. 1 by the Chicago Bears took no one by surprise. It was a foregone conclusion the moment Ryan Poles and Co. decided to move on from Justin Fields. Williams will be the Week 1 starter, and while he is bound to experience some rookie growing pains there should be plenty of success in leading a Bears offense that is all of sudden, on paper, one of the most talented in the entire league. But what exactly is his floor and, more importantly, his ceiling? Let’s dive in and take a deeper look at what we might expect from Williams in 2024 and beyond.
Fantasy Value
The range of outcomes for Williams is wide, but it’s hard to imagine him being a complete bust even as a rookie in this newly-formed offense. With the addition of Rome Odunze to a set of skill players that includes Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and D’Andre Swift, the Bears currently have an embarrassment of weapons. Williams has an abundance of arm talent, playmaking ability, and mobility to be a problem for opposing defenses. While rookie quarterbacks typically have a steep learning curve, C.J. Stroud showed last year that success is possible. The difference is Stroud did it with young weapons like Nico Collins and Tank Dell, whereas Williams will lead a stable of veteran playmakers who have had consistent success getting open and producing. There are some questions surrounding the offensive line, but the unit, when healthy, has the talent to be a top-10 unit in 2024. It wouldn’t surprise me if Williams finished in the top-12 at the position as a low-end starter (depending on the format) and if everything falls his way he could have a special rookie season. He is most likely to be taken as a high-end backup to a safer veteran selection in 1QB leagues, but in 2QB/Superflex leagues I expect his upside to make him a top-60 pick.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty is where he will find his value skyrocket. QBs often fall to the end of the first round or early second round in dynasty rookie drafts, but this year we could see two rookie signal callers taken in the first round. If he can produce and adapt to the quicker speed of the NFL, the Bears will have found the franchise QB that has eluded them for far too long. There are no sure things when it comes to rookie QBs, and this draft class is no exception, but Williams may be as close as we get. We will learn fairly quickly if he’s the real deal or not. Even through the inevitable rookie mistakes the Bears offense has enough talent to take some of the pressure off of their rookie, which should allow him to slow the game down and find ways to produce even as he makes the occasional head-scratching decision consistently. Williams has the upside to be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback for years to come, but whether he can realize that potential will depend on the Bears’ ability to develop him and his willingness to learn and grow. In dynasty 2QB/Superflex leagues, Williams’ upside makes him a reasonable choice as the overall No. 1 pick, and in 1QB leagues, I would not expect him to fall beyond the top-6, with all of the top-3 rookie wide receivers, tight end Brock Bowers, and fellow-QB Jayden Daniels (if you’re not as big of a believer in Williams) potentially going ahead of him.
Conclusion
Rookie quarterbacks rarely have it as good as Caleb Williams will have it in 2024. He is an excellent prospect and with him leading the charge the Bears offense could be greatly improved and fun to watch in 2024. His strong arm, playmaking ability, and often-overlooked rushing chops could make him a sneaky selection in redraft leagues later in drafts while you stock up on elite talent at other positions. In dynasty leagues, I view him as a surefire top-5 pick. Williams does tend to play with a level of confidence that can cause him to try to do too much and lead him into unforced errors, but that may have been a product of the level of talent surrounding him at USC, something that will not be an issue in Chicago. The expectations for Williams may be so lofty that he can’t possibly live up to them, especially in his rookie season, but it’s hard for me to imagine him not being able to find a solid level of success in 2024 and develop into a top talent at the position for years.
