Fantasy Football Beneath the Surface: RB Expected Points and Strength of Schedule

By Scott Rinear | October 27, 2023

RB Expected Points and Strength of Schedule

Welcome back to another season of “Beneath the Surface,” a series I’ve loved writing for FantasyData where I look past the box scores. Another season of NFL football is well underway, creating a pile of data to sift through looking for clues. Clues as to what leads to certain results and clues for speculating what might be coming next. They say, “Looks can be deceiving.” The same can be said for surface-level statistics in fantasy football. In this weekly article series, I will be looking beneath the statistical surface, beyond the standard box score, using the premium statistics provided by FantasyData, including advanced and efficiency metrics across the fantasy skill positions, to search for puzzle pieces that fit together.

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Fantasy Points Per Game and Strength of Schedule: Top 40 RBs

We now move from our first “Bye-Nado” week, having had to navigate six teams on bye in Week 7, to the rare midseason week with zero byes. We are knocking on the door of the halfway point, with the NFL Trade Deadline looming. This has been yet another chaotic season, with a barrage of injuries to some of fantasy football’s top players, but our sample size of games has increased to the point where we have a clearer picture of what’s happening. The theme of this article series has been a focus on peripheral and advanced statistics across the fantasy skill position groups, mostly revolving around opportunity, volume, and efficiency. The foundational pieces of the eventual results: fantasy points.

I preach the “jigsaw puzzle” nature of fantasy football analysis. You can see it every week in my intro paragraph. I tend to focus on peripherals because of the usefulness of the data and because I assume fewer people have the time to dig into it. That’s been my main goal since I got into this industry, to try and help other people become better fantasy managers. That is why I and many analysts out there commit the time to do what we do, so you don’t have to if you don’t want to. But the results, the fantasy points, are just as much a piece of the puzzle as anything else. And, fantasy points scored also have their own set of peripheral statistics. For this article, I will be using fantasy points (FPTS) scored in PPR formats. So anytime you see “FPTS” it is the equivalent of saying “PPR fantasy points.”

Expected Points

In this article, I will be looking at the current Top 40 RBs, based on FPTS scored per game (PPG). Along with PPG, I will be including another useful metric: Expected Fantasy Points (xFP). Specifically, I will compare Expected PPG to actual PPG for each player, which produces another useful data point: Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). Expected Points for individual players factor in specific context that attaches varying degrees of value to each opportunity (targets, rush attempts, and receptions). The idea behind EP and FPOE is that not all opportunities are created equally. Some opportunities are more valuable than others. For example, a WR who gets five red zone targets in a game would be more appealing than a WR who gets five targets between the 20s and comes off the field in the red zone. The box score will only show the five targets for both players, but the Expected Points would be higher for the WR earning the red zone opportunities. The Expected Points formula is comprised of multiple variables:

  • Value of rush attempts vs targets (targets are worth more expected points than rush attempts)
  • Down and distance
  • Yard line
  • Depth of receiving target

With EP you can calculate FPOE, which shows the players who are underperforming or overperforming in PPG compared to what is expected. I wrote about this topic last season and was motivated to revisit it with 2023 results after listening to the Week 7 Late Round Podcast, Late Round Perspectives episode. JJ Zacharaison sat down with Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points, two individuals I respect and look up to a great deal. When asked about his favorite metrics that are underutilized (in general) in the industry, Barrett’s response was Expected Points.  

Strength of Schedule

In addition to FPTS data, I will also show the fantasy strength of schedule for the Top 36 RBs. Fantasy points allowed per game by each team to each skill position come from FantasyData’s Premium Data. I then adjust those numbers based on the opponent and the average points scored by the respective position group or player. For example, let’s say Team A allows Stefon Diggs to score 15 PPR points and Team B allows Rashod Bateman to score 13 PPR points. In this hypothetical example, looking only at raw fantasy points allowed indicates Team B is tougher on WRs having allowed two fewer fantasy points. But Diggs is averaging 22.4 PPR points per game. Bateman is averaging four. This brings in another measure: Points Over Average (POA) allowed. Team A held Diggs 7.4 points under his average, for a POA allowed of -7.4. Team B allowed Bateman to score nine points above his average (POA allowed of +9.0). This POA allowed is factored into my ranking for matchup strength. This is how each team’s rank versus RB is calculated. Once the rankings are in place, I then calculate strength of schedule (SOS).

The RB SOS will be shown for each of the following time frames:

  • Rank based on adjusted fantasy points allowed (PPR), to date (Weeks 1-7); this is the difficulty or ease of each team’s RB schedule so far.
  • Rank based on adjusted fantasy points allowed (PPR), rest of fantasy regular season (ROS) (Weeks 8-14).
  • Rank based on adjusted fantasy points allowed (PPR), and playoff schedule (Weeks 15-17).

For the charts in this article, the column by which the data is sorted will have a yellow-highlighted column title.

Beneath the Surface: Fantasy Points, Expected Points, and FPOE for the Top 40 RBs

Fantasy points and xFP data used for this article are taken from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

There are different ways in which to interpret xFP and FPOE. It is not necessarily predictive of a continued positive linear correlation. As with any individual metric, even one as predictive as xFP, additional context is needed. TDs can have a disproportionate impact on FPOE. Even individual variables within the xFP formula can be at odds with each other. Take Alvin Kamara for example. Since returning from suspension, Kamara has a 24.4% target share (according to PlayerProfiler) and has averaged 9.8 targets per game. Those are WR1 numbers. With targets being worth more xFP than rush attempts, that drives up his xFP per game.

However, Kamara’s aDOT is -0.6 (according to Pro-Football-Reference), so he is not being put in a position to consistently realize the full value of those targets within the xFP formula, leading to an FPOE per game of -5.4. That is the lowest number among current Top 12 RBs and the only negative FPOE per game in the Top 6. So, how should we interpret this? At the end of the day, volume and opportunity rule the land, and as I said, Kamara is seeing WR1 targets from the RB position. I see positive regression for Kamara’s FPOE. And with him already the overall RB3, he could threaten as the overall RB1 this season.

This first chart is sorted by actual PPG, This Top 40 is based on a minimum of three games played, and players currently out for the season with injuries are not included. The columns are arranged as follows (from left to right):

  • PPG Rank: Current rank in PPR PPG
  • xFP/Game (xFPPG) Rank: This would be the rank if each RB scored at their xFP
  • Rank difference: Difference between PPG Rank and xFP/Game Rank. A higher difference between these ranks indicates a higher FPOE (a green-shaded number here will always correspond with a green-shaded FPOE/Game, and vice versa with red-shaded numbers)
  • Player, Team, Games Played
  • Actual PPG
  • xFPPG
  • FPOE/Game: Difference between actual PPG and xFPPG

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There are currently four RBs averaging 20+ PPR PPG, which is right around the average. According to FantasyData, since 2013, there have been an average of 3.3 RBs to finish at 20+ PPR PPG each season, with a low of only one in 2015, and a high of eight in 2018, a year that marked an influx of RB talent into the league. With my minimum games played set at three, Dolphins’ rookie De’Von Achane sits atop the PPG mountain, almost one PPG higher than Christian McCaffrey. And don’t get me wrong, I love Achane. But I am waiting until he returns from injury and gets a few more games under his belt before I look too closely at his xFP numbers. Currently, his xFP per game is 14.3 points, which is a ridiculously high number.

Outside of Achane, the biggest surprises among the Top 12 (RB1) are Raheem Mostert, Kyren Williams, Zack Moss, and, to a slightly lesser extent, David Montgomery. Montgomery has been there before, but he has exceeded expectations during the first half of the season (literally, with a positive FPOE) while sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs. At first glance, Montgomery’s TD reliance (6.4% TD rate) seems to be the main (and potentially unsustainable) reason for Montgomery’s RB1 status. In 2022, Jamaal Williams had 17 rushing TDs to lead the NFL, and his TD rate was 6.5%. For reference, the average TD rate for Top 24 RBs (PPR, PPG) over the last five years is 3.9%. But if there is any team for which a high RB TD rate is sustainable, it’s Dan Campbell’s Lions.

The bigger surprises are Mostert, Williams, and Moss. Mostert has flashed at times when healthy, but no one saw this coming for the 31-year-old veteran. And if you think Montgomery’s TD rate is high, Mostert currently leads the NFL with nine rushing TDs and a 10.7% TD rate. TDs are also a major contributor to Mostert’s FPOE per game of 7.1. This isn’t to fade Mostert. More so it’s to convey that he will likely see some regression, even in the Dolphins’ offense, especially once Achane returns from Injured Reserve (IR). But he is currently the overall RB4, so even with regression he should remain far above his preseason expectations.

Kyren Williams is a great story. A somewhat polarizing prospect in 2022 due to a terrible performance at the NFL Combine, Williams battled injury during his rookie season and came into 2023 as an afterthought. The heavy favorite to lead this backfield (according to the fantasy community) was Cam Akers, with Williams potentially seeing some passing work. Instead, Williams was shot out of a cannon from the onset, with two rushing TDs in Week 1 and six targets and a receiving TD in Week 2. Williams showcases another angle to view FPOE. With an FPOE per game close to zero (0.7), Willams’ 18.5 PPR PPG is close to expectation based on the way he is being used and his execution of that usage.

Other than a potential decrease in workload, I see no reason why Williams won’t maintain this success when he returns from injury. And Williams should retake the lead RB role for the Rams when he returns from injury. Darrell Henderson Jr. and/or Royce Freeman will likely stay somewhat involved to spell Williams and keep him from having to shoulder the massive workload he has seen. For example, in Week 5, Williams was one Ronnie Rivers carry away from a 100% RB Opportunity Share, a feat that rarely happens in today’s NFL.

Ironically, as I state how rare that is, two RBs have accomplished that in 2023, and they both did it in Week 2. McCaffrey was one. The other was our next Top 12 surprise, Zack Moss. I honestly have trouble choosing which of these RB1s is the most surprising, but if forced to answer I would go with Moss. Moss began the season injured, so we were all treated to one of the worst RB performances in history by Deon Jackson. It became clear that Moss would at least have a shot to lead this backfield in Jonathan Taylor’s absence once he was healthy. Moss was nothing more than a middling RB on an RB-unfriendly team (Bills) for the first two-and-a-half years of his career before being traded to the Colts.

And therein lies the problem with his current fantasy success. He is an RB for the Colts. If Jonathan Taylor were not in the picture I would be very bullish on Moss rest of season. His FPOE per game is 1.7 so he hasn’t been playing way over his head, and he has averaged more than three targets per game, including seven in Week 5. Before 2023, Moss averaged only 21 targets…per season, so his workload and more balanced usage all point to maintainability. But he plays for the Colts. Taylor will eventually take back over this backfield, and while Moss will still have fantasy value and should not be dropped anytime soon, he will be nowhere near 18.1 PPR PPG later in the season.

The second chart includes the same data sorted by FPOE per game. I chose to use FPOE per game as the filter and to order it from lowest to highest because multiple RBs with a negative FPOE per game warrant discussion.

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As with positive and neutral FPOE/game statistics, there is needed context for RBs scoring fewer fantasy points than their xFP. One of my biggest “buy-lows” sits atop this list when ordered from lowest to highest. Josh Jacobs currently has the lowest FPOE, scoring 6.7 fewer fantasy points than expected per game. The reason Jacobs is a massive buy-low for me right now is that this number screams positive regression with a player of Jacobs’ caliber. Yes, the Raiders offense is not special, but it was not special last year either when Jacobs led the NFL in rushing. According to FantasyData’s advanced RB metrics, Jacobs has the third-highest RB Opportunity Share in the league right now (84%). As a quick refresher, that means of all the RB rush attempts and targets this year for the Raiders, Jacobs has seen 84% of those opportunities, an RB market share dominance only surpassed by Saquon Barkley (84.7%) and Joe Mixon (86%; more on him in a minute).

And there are no signs that anything will significantly change in Las Vegas. Zamir White may see a slight uptick in snaps during the second half of the season. But I would be shocked if Jacobs doesn’t finish the 2023 season with an RB Opportunity Share above 80%. My one concern with Jacobs is that the Raiders’ have had the most fantasy-friendly RB schedule through the first seven weeks. Their schedule does toughen up for the rest of the fantasy season, but they have a great fantasy playoffs schedule. So the move with Jacobs may be waiting for a few more games if he continues to underperform in tougher matchups, then pounce with the playoffs in mind when his value is lower.

Joe Mixon is another PPG underperformer I would be looking to buy low. I already mentioned that he leads the NFL in RB Opportunity Share. Mixon (and Jacobs) for that matter may be difficult to buy-low on simply due to name value. And fantasy managers get more savvy every year (I like to think in small part because of articles like this) and the fact that volume and opportunity are king and queen for RBs is well known. But my take on Mixon is the same as for Jacobs, except that Mixon is on a much better offense. The Bengals had an awful start to the season with Joe Burrow playing on one leg. But he and the entire offense have looked better the last few games and their Week 7 came at a perfect time for their situation.

A potential knock on this Mixon take is that even his xFPPG of 15.3 points would be disappointing. That would put him at RB14 and still lower than what you paid for him on draft day. But xFP has to be put into context. Mixon’s xFP represents the expectation based on how this offense has run until now. Along with my projection of a stark improvement for the Bengals’ offense over the second half of the season comes a likely increase in Mixon’s xFP. And this is not that complicated. Just looking at one scenario, if the Bengals’ offense is better that will include things like more time spent in their opponent’s territory and more time in the red zone. Rush attempts, targets, and receptions are more valuable (higher xFP) in those areas. So as long as Mixon maintains a stranglehold on this backfield, which is more probable for him than pretty much any other RB in the NFL, then his overall workload will increase in value within the xFP formula.

Austin Ekeler is another RB for whom this xFP data is interesting. But unlike Jacobs and Mixon, the context surrounding Ekeler’s negative FPOE is a bit concerning. Ekeler has missed time and is still working his way back to 100% from an ankle injury. Ankle injuries are not to be underestimated with RBs. His games played sample size is still small so we cannot put too much weight on what we have seen when forecasting how the rest of Ekeler’s season will play out. It is the way Ekeler is being used, and, zooming out from that, how the Chargers’ offense is being called by Kellen Moore. This was a slight concern with Ekeler entering the 2023 season. Moore had been much more of a downfield pass play-caller with much less reliance on a weapon like Ekeler than what the Chargers have done over the last few years. Yes, Tony Pollard saw his share of receiving work under Moore in Dallas, but I am saying less reliance compared to the Chargers.

For example, the Chargers led the NFL in RB target share in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, the Cowboys had the 24th-highest RB target share. This next stat is a big part of the concern. The Chargers currently have the lowest RB target share in the league. From first to worst. Yes, this is influenced by Ekeler missing time and a one-dimensional RB like Joshua Kelley filling in, but even in the games, Ekeler has played, his receiving output decrease is noticeable.

In 2022, 55.6% of Ekeler’s PPR points came via receiving output. So far in 2023, that number is at 41%. Ekeler is a good RB. No one is arguing against that. But he is at his best when his fantasy output leans in the receiving direction. And he is such a good pass-catcher, that he is better able to meet and exceed xFP by realizing that receiving value. Again, I am not saying he is a bad runner. But when relying more on rush attempts it will be more difficult for him to drastically improve his FPOE, which currently sits at -3.7 points per game. I still think Ekeler is the no-brainer must-start he has been in recent history, and I am hopeful that as he returns to full health Moore will start utilizing him more in alignment with his highest value, both as a fantasy RB and NFL RB.

Beneath the Surface: Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the Top 40 RBs

The RB strength of schedule is broken down further, showing opponent ranking in adjusted fantasy points allowed per game to:

  • Overall RB fantasy points
  • RB fantasy points from rushing only (PFRu)
  • RB fantasy points from receiving only (PFR)

Each team’s fantasy strength of schedule for the RB categories listed above is broken down into three time frames:

  • SOS To Date (Weeks 1-7)
  • SOS Rest of Fantasy Regular Season (ROS) (Weeks 8-14)
  • SOS Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)

In this ranking format, a lower number represents fewer FPTS allowed per game on average (red color) and therefore a tough SOS, and a higher number represents more FPTS allowed per game (green color), and therefore a fantasy-friendly SOS.

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I realize this includes a lot of numbers, so the first thing to do is familiarize yourself with the three categories running across the top. Then within each category, you’ll see the different time frames. The key things to look for are discrepancies between SOS for PFRu and PFR. An SOS that looks brutal against RB rushing output, but softer against RB receiving output would be a better schedule than it looks like for a pass-catching RB. And vice versa.

A good example is the Packers RBs. The Packers have the toughest RORS schedule for RBs when looking at PFRu. Look at the middle column of the PFRu section for Aaron Jones to see what I mean. This sways their overall SOS for RBs to the tougher side (3rd-toughest SOS; see middle column of the Overall section). But, their ROS schedule when looking at PFR is ranked 23rd (middle column of PFR section). So, at first glance, it looks like a brutal remaining schedule for the Packers’ RBs. And it is not an easy schedule. But it is not as bad as advertised for Aaron Jones who can do a lot of damage through the air based on what those opponents have given up to pass-catching RBs.

The other data point to look at is the “to-date” SOS. This shows how tough each team/player’s SOS has been so far. A player to highlight in that context is Rachaad White. White has disappointed this season, currently ranking as the RB27 (not including Week 8 Thursday Night Football). But, according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed system, he has faced the toughest fantasy RB schedule and the toughest SOS for PFR.

That is the promising aspect for me. White’s schedule so far includes teams who have been very stingy in giving up RB fantasy points through the air. White’s %PFR (percentage of fantasy points from receiving output) is 54%, the fifth-highest in the NFL. He has seen over four targets per game. And while White’s fantasy playoff schedule is on the tougher side, his ROS schedule is ranked 26th (seventh-easiest) when looking at overall RB scoring, and his ROS schedule is ranked 29th (fourth-easiest) when looking at PFR. White is a buy-low with the potential for a solid second half of the season.

Thank you so much for reading! If you have additional questions about how to interpret or use this SOS chart, or any of the data used in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter/X (@MunderDifflinFF).

Scott Rinear
My name is Scott Rinear and I live in Seattle, Washington with my wife, two daughters and golden retriever (Jasper). Our biggest passion as a family is camping. We camp at least 10 times a year. My biggest passion personally is fantasy football. I have been playing fantasy football since 2006 and started producing content in 2020. I am a lifelong Seahawks and Mariners fan and will continue my fandom for the SuperSonics once they return to Seattle. I love everything about football, especially analytics and data analysis, and I’m a sucker for a good spreadsheet. I am a proud member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA).
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