DFS Golf Picks: the RBC Canadian Open
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the RBC Canadian Open, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you!
The RBC Canadian Open
Preview for the RBC Canadian Open: It has been three long years since the PGA Tour has competed in this event, and the country of Canada is extremely happy to have it back! This tournament dates way back to 1904 and is one of the very oldest golf tournaments on the PGA Tour. St. George’s Golf and Country Club has hosted this tournament seven times, the first being in 1933 and the most recent in 2010. We have a solid-looking field on tap this week, the record at the Canadian Open is -25 which came in 1952 but the best we have seen at St. George’s is -19. Winners of the Canadian Open over the past five editions includes Rory McIlroy in 2019, Dustin Johnson in 2018, Jhonattan Vegas in 2017, Jhonattan Vegas in 2016, and Jason Day in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $8.7M, the winner collects $1.566M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: St. George’s Golf and Country Club is just 7,014 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are poa annua. The winning score at this tournament over the last decade ranges from -16 to -23, but players haven’t been here in 12 years, so none of the scores include St. George’s. Expect a score around -20 this week give or take. Some key stats to focus on this week are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, par 3’s gained 200+ yards, and par 4’s gained 450-500 yards.
The field: We have a full 156-player field in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will have the honor of playing the weekend rounds. We have a bunch of talented players teeing it up including Rory McIlroy, world #1 Scottie Scheffler, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, a bunch of Canadians including Corey Conners, and lots of other fantastic golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the RBC Canadian Open:
1. How much will the LIV Golf be a topic of conversation this week? It’s unfortunate that Dustin Johnson pulled out of the Canadian Open this week with aspirations of padding his pockets at the LIV Golf event in Europe. He, Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Talor Gooch, and other regular PGA Tour players will be overseas competing in the first-ever LIV tournament. This is terrible timing for the Canadian Open, and I hope it doesn’t overshadow the event in Toronto this week.
2. Will McIlroy defend his title? It’s three years later and on a different course, but can Rory defend the Canadian Open? I certainly believe the Irishman can pull it off this week – the ball-striking will show up big I’m sure and if his putter does too then he could easily be hoisting the trophy come Sunday.
3. Which 10 players have been best on approach over the last 24 rounds? This is always such an important stat to focus on – the best recently in this stat category are Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Harold Varner III, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, C.T. Pan, Scott Gutschewski, and J.J. Spaun.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: With the full field on display this week and good depth throughout, you can choose to go any direction you’d like with your lineups. Hybrid is likely the best way to go to get a nice balance of win equity and make the cut equity, but I can see stars and scrubs and balanced working well depending on which types of contests you’re looking at. Take a look at projected ownership on Wednesday, try to stay at or under 80% total combined for all six players for each lineup, and leave a few hundred on the table if you want to pull down a big GPP outright.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – It’s hard to say what will happen out there this week since this course hasn’t been played on by PGA Tour pros in over a decade, but you can expect superb play from McIlroy this week as he’s solid on ball-striking and has gained with his short game in four straight starts. He has four consecutive top 18’s, and three of them were top 8’s including a runner-up at The Masters four starts ago. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Won.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – The world’s top player is coming off a runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he lost to Sam Burns in a playoff, but he gained strokes across the board including 9.60 ball-striking. He has four wins in his last ten starts and two of those wins came in his last six starts. He’s outstanding in every facet of his game and should be all over the leaderboard this week. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – He’s a bit of a boom or bust player as he has won two times in his last six starts, has a runner-up, a 20th, and two missed cuts. So he is more boom than bust and I love using him as he’s a good ball-striker and a great putter. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $9K Range
Harold Varner III (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – He’s an outstanding approach player and usually gains with his short game, so he’s a solid player that sometimes gets overlooked. He has two top 4’s in his last four starts, and six top 27’s in his last eight starts including a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained 8.11 strokes ball-striking. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T35, 2018 – T17, and 2017 – T23.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – For whatever reason, he hasn’t played well on his native soil in Canada, but he’s much better than he was three years ago and I expect a solid result from Conners this week. He has four top 13’s in his last seven starts including a 6th at The Masters where he gained strokes across the board, and he’s coming off a T13 at the Memorial Tournament where he gained 8.12 on approach and 10.24 ball-striking. If he doesn’t finish at least in the top 20 this week, then I’ll chug a pint of maple syrup! Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut and 2018 – Cut.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – He’s such a strong player throughout his bag and has frequently finished in the top 10 and top 20 since last Fall. He missed the cut in his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament last week, but he lost 7.57 strokes putting – his worst green performance of his career. Prior to that, he had a T2 and a 5th, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled down another top 5 this week. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $8K Range
C.T. Pan (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – He has gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts and has finished anywhere from T15 to T53 during that span, and has only missed the cut once in his last eleven starts dating back to late February. As long as his approach game holds up and I don’t see why it won’t, then he should finish decent this week. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T14.
Mackenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – He has played well in Canada and represents his country well, mostly with his good short game. His ball-striking isn’t so good, but I think he will be sound around the green and with the flat stick this week to pull off a respectable finish come Sunday. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T14, 2018 – T8, and 2017 – T32.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Vegas won the Canadian Open in 2016 and 2017 and has played fairly well this year despite injury trouble and surgery. He had a T37 at the Memorial Tournament last week, and once his putter gets back on track he should get back to putting up top 20’s fairly regularly again. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T29 and 2017 – Won.
The $7K Range
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – He has made five straight cuts and only missed playing the weekend once in his last ten starts, so he should be good to score you fantasy points in all four rounds this week. He’s good on approach, great around the green, and hit or miss on the greens but when he’s on he’s on like two starts ago when he gained 5.93 strokes at the Charles Schwab Challenge to finish T12. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Austin Smotherman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – He’s a really good ball-striker gaining strokes in his past nine measured events, but it’s his around the green game that holds him back from success. He has two top 25’s in his last three starts and could land another this week if he’s a bit better than average with his short game. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Aaron Rai (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He had a T26 in his most recent start thanks to gaining 8.21 with his putter at the Memorial, and his ball-striking is usually pretty decent. He carries risk, but if he has another strong putting week then a top 20 isn’t out of the question. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $6K Range
Adam Schenk (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – I like that Schenk has two top 9’s since late March and is coming off a T26 last week at the Memorial thanks to gaining 9.28 strokes ball-striking. His stats and results are a bit spotty, but he can pop and that’s what you want from a $6K player, especially if you’re after big money in the large GPPs. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T56 and 2018 – T22.
Bill Haas (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Don’t look at his ball-striking stats as they are total crap, but he’s great with his short game and has surprisingly only missed one cut in his last eleven starts, and his best finish during that stretch was in his most recent start at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he landed a T27 and almost gained strokes across the board except for a modest 0.97 loss on approach. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut and 2018 – Cut.
Callum Tarren (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – This one could go any which way, but he has four straight made cuts if you count the Zurich Classic, and five starts ago he had a T7 on the Korn Ferry Tour. His ball-striking has been bad lately and it’s all about the putter for him recently, but he did gain 6.74 ball-striking in February at The Honda Classic to earn a T30 and followed that up with a T5 at the Puerto Rico Open, so he has some potential. Canadian Open finishes over the last five years: None.
