Sam LaPorta Fantasy 2024
Last season, as a rookie, Sam LaPorta came in and made an immediate impact, both in real football and in fantasy. LaPorta finished with 86 catches, 89 yards, and 10 touchdowns and ended the season as the overall TE1 in all formats. It was arguably the best TE rookie season of all time, and certainly the best tight end debut since fantasy football entered the scene. The question is “Can he do it again?” While it’s possible, it’s not going to be easy. The tight end position has often been one of the, if not THE, most temperamental, and with an uncommon amount of depth at the position this season there could be a handful of players vying for that top spot. Let’s look at the upcoming season, the tight end landscape as a whole, and whether or not a return to fantasy dominance is something we should expect from LaPorta.
The first thing we have to consider when evaluating LaPorta is the price tag. Depending on which rankings or ADP list you’re looking at LaPorta is either viewed as the No. 1 or No. 2 tight end (Travis Kelce being the other top 2 tight end.) But on all these lists LaPorta is an early third-round pick. That’s a hefty cost for a player who only has one season under his belt, no matter how special the season. It’s surprising to see LaPorta regularly drafted ahead of perennial difference-maker Travis Kelce. LaPorta’s position as the TE1 is understandable following such an incredible season, but a deeper look at the numbers paints a picture that makes me worry he might be a trap. In 2023, LaPorta was the overall TE1. Still, on a per-game basis, he was outscored by Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson in PPR formats, with two others (Mark Andrews and Evan Engram) being within .6 points per-game of LaPorta. So by drafting LaPorta this high, you are leaving very little room for error and drafting him close to his ceiling. If he hits, great, but there are far more paths for him to underperform at that draft price than for him to justify it.
There’s also the question of his role in the offense. LaPorta will be a key contributor for the Lions and should demand an elite target share. But I don’t see a path for LaPorta to surpass Detroit’s No. 1 pass catcher Amon-Ra St. Brown. LaPorta could be the No. 2 target, but second-year RB Jahmyr Gibbs may have something to say about that (Gibbs is currently dealing with a hamstring issue, although he is expected to be ready for Week 1.) Jameson Williams is also entering a make-it-or-break-it season. He should get an opportunity to succeed early in the season and if he does, then his targets are going to have come from somewhere, and it could hurt LaPorta, albeit just slightly.
There’s also the 2023 season itself. While it was an outstanding season for a rookie tight end, it was also the worst overall TE1 season of the last seven years. Asking a player who had a great season for a rookie, but not a particularly great season for an overall TE1 and who has significant competition for targets to not only repeat but improve upon that success may be too much to ask. Of course, players do often improve in Year Two. The question is whether or not any positive strides LaPorta makes will be enough to pay up for him in fantasy drafts. He likely needs it to be another down year for tight ends to justify that draft price.
Please don’t hear what I’m not saying. This is in no way an indictment of LaPorta the player. LaPorta is an extremely gifted young, exciting talent at a position that historically has been a desert in fantasy circles. But the absolute ceiling for LaPorta is to be the No. 2 target on his team, so for him to finish as the TE1 again you would have to be banking on a more pass-heavy offense than the Lions were in 2023. On the other hand, players like Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, and Trey McBride have a much clearer path to being the top target on their team and are on offenses that are projected to pass the ball more than the Lions. So while LaPorta was a huge value in 2023 due to his late-round ADP, things have over-corrected too much for my liking. There’s no guarantee that LaPorta will outperform many of the names I’ve mentioned and with him coming at a premium price I would much rather build my team at other positions and take a chance on a different tight end, especially with this year being one of the deepest we’ve seen at the position in years. If you believe in LaPorta’s superiority then, by all means, go get “your guy,” but don’t say you weren’t warned.
