Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM Week 1

The preseason research is done. Most drafts have been completed. Now we must face that difficult week in, week-out decision of who to put in our lineup. Certain players are easy. Regardless of matchup, You’ll never sit the likes of Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, or Josh Allen. The choice becomes more difficult as we focus on players we drafted in the middle to late rounds. Players that could easily end up on our flex one week and our waiver wire the next. Players that provide the promise of sleeper or breakout potential becoming reliable WR2s or RB2s. Knowing which players to count on and which to fade is arguably the most difficult part of fantasy football.

This is especially true in week one when all we have to go on is how teams performed last year and the knowledge and speculation of how offseason and draft day acquisitions may impact their team. Well, I’m here to help you make sense of it all. To help you decide which slightly under-the-radar players may possess just enough upside and opportunity to outperform expectations, and which players you may want to wait on just one more week before plugging them into the lineup. Fantasy football is a weekly game, where each week we try to find the best combination of players to put against our opponent, hopefully leading to a victory, then another, then another, until we find ourselves taking home the championship. I can’t get you the championship in week one, but I can help you start off right.

Week 1 Quick Links

Week 1 Starts

*Start Stat Percentage, Via Sleeper

Geno Smith (QB)

Seattle Seahawks vs. LAR (25% Start)

Even in a season that saw Smith finish as the QB5, it was a bit of a mixed bag. In his first contest against the Rams, he scored nearly 30 points, throwing for 367 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Then, in their week 18 contest, he threw for 213 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, scoring under 16 fantasy points. So, even in a season that saw a true breakout from Smith, there were bouts of inconsistency. Yet, there is reason for optimism when he and his Seattle Seahawks take on the Rams in week one. Defensive standouts Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner, and Jalen Ramsey are gone, and they will most likely be without WR Cooper Kupp, making it much harder to move the ball. If the Rams defense finds itself constantly taking the field, Seattle WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will start to take over. With another offseason under his belt, and working within the same system, Smith should end up much closer to 30 pts. than 15.

Khalil Herbert (RB)

Chicago Bears vs. GB (45% Start)

At least for now, Herbert finds himself atop the Bears running back depth chart, and that’s not a bad place to be. In 2022, only two teams had more rushing attempts per game than the Bears, and the Green Bay Packers allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position. Even if the Bears become more balanced on offense, as predicted, there should still be enough carries to provide plenty of opportunities for Herbert, who has proven to be good when given the chance. Last year, Herbert led the NFL in yards per attempt with nearly 5.7 and garnered an impressive 3.7 yards after contact. While he has been limited in the passing game and lacks significant pass-blocking skills, the preseason showed us he is capable of scoring from anywhere. With a QB who will help open lanes up with his elite rushing skills, Herbert should find plenty of space to run and reward fantasy managers.

Antonio Gibson/Brian Robinson

(RBs) Washington Commanders vs ARI (59% & 45% Start)

Admittedly, this one is a bit of a cheat, but against a team accused of tanking, everyone on this Washington offense should be in play. Last year, the Cardinals were already one of the worst defenses against the run, allowing over 22 points per game. The Cardinals will also be without S Isaiah Simmons, who they basically traded to the New York Giants for a bag of chips (or a seventh-round pick in 2024 if you require specifics), and OT Josh Jones, who they recently traded to the Houston Texans for a fifth-round pick. Kyler Murray is also starting the season on the PUP list. There are rumors he could remain out all season long, leaving the powerhouses of journeyman Josh Dobbs or rookie Clayton Tune to run the show. This team is going to be bad in nearly every respect. Whether it’s Gibson or Robinson, there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around.

Jahan Dotson (WR)

Washington Commanders vs ARI (62% Start)

*See above. It’s also possible that the Commanders will be without WR Terry McLaurin. Combine that with the immense athleticism and upside we have seen from Dotson in the preseason, and there’s only one thing left to say – “Where do I sign up?” Frankly, I want to play anyone I have against this defense all season. (40)

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Denver Broncos vs. LV (37% Start)

This one feels wrong. The Broncos are not going to be a good team. Russell Wilson has yet to prove he is over his issues from a season ago. Jerry Jeudy is nursing a hamstring injury, Javonte Williams will be eased in after suffering an ACL and LCL tear less than a year ago, and new head coach, Sean Payton is already blaming the previous regime for things to come. This makes it hard to see a path to a winning season. Yet, I’m not sure that matters. Last year, Sutton finished with the 17th most air yards among WRs and a 12.2 depth of target. Payton has historically had a pass-heavy approach, and if the Broncos struggle to get the ground game going, or if the Raiders are simply the better team and get ahead early, the Broncos will have no choice but to air it out. This will benefit Sutton, and he should be able to find success against a team that was middle of the pack against WRs last year. It may not be pretty getting there, but Sutton is a fine play as a low-end WR2/high-end flex this week.

Tyler Higbee (TE)

Los Angeles Rams vs. SEA (24% Start)

This one is simple for me. With Cooper Kupp likely not being available in week one, someone has to catch the ball. Stafford is known for relying on veterans come game time. Being the most tenured pass-catching threat on the field for the Rams, I expect Higbee to get targeted early and often. He has found fantasy production in that role in the past. Over the last four seasons, when Higbee has seen double-digit targets, he has averaged nearly 14 points per game in half-PPR formats. This week Higbee could soak up targets, leaving very little for anyone else. Against a Seahawks team that should find it fairly easy to put up points, the Rams (and Higbee) could find themselves having to play catch-up against a defense that was dead last against fantasy TEs last year. If he scores, we could be looking at a top-five TE finish in week one.

Week 1 Sits

Deshaun Watson (QB)

Cleveland Browns vs CIN (77% Start)

Let’s be honest. Watson has not been able to find any reliable, consistent fantasy production since returning to the NFL, ranking 22nd in fantasy points per game at the position in 2022. Watson did finish strong with two top-eight performances while also ranking fourth among QBs in rushing yards. While there have been reports out of camp of the offense (Watson included) looking less than crisp, when we got to see Watson in preseason action, he looked far more poised and in control, using his arm and legs to make plays. So why sit him? The issue is twofold. We don’t know what version of Watson we’ll get when games start counting. On top of that, he’s facing a Bengals defense that was toward the top of the league against QBs allowing only 13.5 points per game. It’s possible that if you drafted Watson you don’t have a better option than to start him, but, if at all possible, I would take a wait-and-see approach and hope that he returns to form sooner rather than later.

Breece Hall (RB)

New York Jets vs. BUF (67% Start)

Hall is an elite-level talent, but while he seems poised to play this week, he will most certainly be eased into game action after suffering an ACL tear in week seven of last year. This was a primary motivation behind the Jets signing Dalvin Cook. They don’t want to take any chances with their star running back knowing that, when healthy, he is the future of the position for this franchise. That’s the key. When healthy. Just because he is out there doesn’t mean he’s 100%. Plus, he’ll be going up against a Bills defense that ranked among the best against running backs in 2022. The Jets are expected to be a better offensive team this year and may very well keep pace with a stacked Buffalo Bills offense, but I would rather see it first, before counting on them to help me this week. Also, with an ACL injury, there’s always the chance of a pregame setback, and with it being a Monday night game, it may be prudent to play it safe. I do not doubt that, at some point, Hall will return to his RB1 form, but for week one he is a clear sit for me.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. NE (77% Start)

Simply put, the Eagles’ backfield is a mess right now and impossible to figure out. As of this writing, Swift is listed atop the depth chart, but that could easily change come game time. Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell are capable backs in their own right and will have a role in this offense. Once the season starts their roles might become more clearly defined, but for now, it feels like a situation to avoid. They are also taking on a team in the New England Patriots that prefers to take the run game away first. In 2022 the Patriots allowed just 13.3 points per game to RBs. If the run game is stuffed, and the Eagles have to air it out, Swift will be fourth (at best) in the pecking order. There may come a time when one of these backs becomes a weekly flex play, but week one is not that time.

Marquise Brown (WR)

Arizona Cardinals vs. WAS (56% Start)

Brown is another player that may be hard to sit because you don’t have a better option on your bench, but, as a flex play, I would much rather take a chance on a high-upside rookie like Zay Flowers or a player with a higher floor like Brandin Cooks. Don’t get me wrong, Brown will get targets in this offense. He has to. But the quality of those targets from either Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune is in question. In 2022, the Washington Commanders weren’t intimidating for fantasy wide receivers, ranking in the middle of the pack and allowing 21.1 points per game. That doesn’t mean Brown will find success. Last season, Brown finished in the top 10 at the position three times but outside the top 25 every other week. He also finished outside the top 40 in five of his last six games. With either a perennial backup or a rookie throwing to him, Brown’s value is likely that of a WR4. Anyone who plays him may wish they had taken a chance on someone else.

Evan Engram (TE)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. IND (69% Start)

Engram was largely productive in fantasy in 2022. He had seven top-12 finishes and was one of Trevor Lawrence’s preferred options, but he also found himself outside the top 25 at the position in eight games. Chances are, if you had Engram in 2022, you felt you got a draft day steal. The question is whether or not he can repeat it in 2023. The odds are stacked against it. The arrival of new alpha WR1, Calvin Ridley, will certainly cut into his slice of the pie. Then there’s his opponent. The Colts only allowed 7.8 points to the position in 2022, and with a rookie signal caller in Anthony Richardson, the offense could struggle to get things going, meaning Lawrence and the passing game may not be called on to do too much in week one. If you’re staring down Engram as a possible starter in week one you most likely waited on TE during your draft, but if, in doing so, you drafted one of the premier rookies like Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, and Sam LaPorta, I would take the chance on them this week. If Engram is your only option, hold your breath and pray.

Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM Week 1