Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 5
Week 5 Starts
*Start Stat Percentage, Via Sleeper
Anthony Richardson (QB)
Indianapolis Colts vs. TEN (35% Start)
After clearing concussion protocol fantasy managers weren’t sure what to expect in Richardson’s first game back, but anyone who played him was happy with the results. In week 4, against the Rams, Richardson scored 33.6 fantasy points. While he wasn’t efficient in the loss, completing only 11 of 25 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, he showed his massive upside as a runner adding 10 carries for 56 yards and another score. This was good enough for a QB2 finish. Because Richardson is capable of putting up 10-15 fantasy points (or more) with his legs he will continue to be one of the safest floor plays at the position. This week he gets a much more pass-friendly opponent in Tennessee. The Titans have allowed either over 300 yards or two TDs to QBs in three of their four games, and an average of 18.16 points. That average includes a 4.7 outing by Joe Burrow who has been struggling all season. Remove that one game and the average catapults to 22.65 points per game. If Richardson can find similar success throwing the ball and add value with his legs this week he could once again finish in the top 5 at the position.
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Houston Texans vs. ATL (18% Start)
I have mentioned C.J. Stroud in this column before, but until his start percentage is at a respectable level I am going to keep saying it. Since week 1 (which saw him only score 10.18 fantasy points) Stroud has scored 75.9 in the last three games, going over 25 twice. He’s also averaging nearly 38 attempts a game, and while the yards have been there (303 a game) and the TDs have been there (six in the last three games), the interceptions have not. He has yet to throw a single INT in four games. Now he is going up against a Falcons team that saw QB Desmond Ridder turn the ball over three times. The Falcons’ defense has been respectable this season, but they have also been asked to carry far more than their share of the load, leading to more offensive snaps for their opponent against an exhausted defense. With the way Stroud and the Texans offense is playing this could be fantasy gold.
David Montgomery (RB)
Detroit Lions vs. CAR (29% Start)
This start percentage will most likely skyrocket in the coming days, so perhaps suggesting you start Montgomery is a moot point, but I’m doing it anyway. On Thursday night, Montgomery returned after a one-week absence because of a thigh injury. Many managers expected him to be eased back in. So what happened? 32 carries for 121 yards and three touchdowns, along with two receptions for 20 yards. No other running back on the team had more than eight carries. As a true bell-cow running back, when those are becoming less and less common, Montgomery is a must-start player until further notice. It doesn’t matter who his opponent is or how they do against running backs, although the Panthers are generous to running backs, I am starting Montgomery until he stops producing. Last season, in a similar role, Jamaal Williams finished as a top-8 running back in half-PPR formats. Montgomery is a more talented running back than Williams and should continue to find success, especially if he continues to get 20+ touches every week.
Brian Robinson (RB)
Washington Commanders vs. CHI (45% Start)
Robinson has been quietly very good in 2023. He is currently the RB8 on the season, having finished in the top-3 at the position three times, even finishing as the overall RB1 in week two. Coming into the season it was believed that the Washington backfield would be a timeshare between Robinson and teammate Antonio Gibson, but that hasn’t materialized, with Gibson getting no more than seven touches in any game while Robinson receives an average of 17 touches. Robinson has also been fairly efficient with his touches, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Now he gets to go up against a struggling (to put it lightly) Chicago Bears team that just lost a heartbreaker to the Denver Broncos and who have been abysmal against running backs all year, allowing over 19 points per game to the position, which includes 17.9 to UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin in week 4. I have a rule. If I could produce against a defense, then I’m starting anyone with actual talent going up against them. Fire Robinson up as a solid RB2 with upside.
Christian Kirk (WR)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. BUF (67% Start)
After week 1, owners of Christian Kirk were worried that the emergence of Calvin Ridley was going to ruin Kirk’s fantasy value. In that first game, Ridley scored over 20 points while Kirk was held to under two. If you didn’t overreact to that performance you have been rewarded every week since, as Kirk has outscored Ridley and is beginning to look Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target, with 32 targets in his last three games, compared to 17 for Ridley. The Bills are not a favorable matchup, and they may be able to shut down the Jaguars offense, especially after seeing how they held both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to single-digit days. Star cornerback Tre’Davious White suffered a torn Achilles which might make it easier to pass on this defense, and if the Jaguars get down and Kirk gets another 12-15 targets he could provide low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers.
Nico Collins (WR)
Houston Texans vs. ATL (43% Start)
Coming into week four there were some questions who the #1 wide receiver is in Houston. Most expected it to be Collins, but after a couple of high-flying affairs by teammate Tank Dell, owners of Collins were concerned that Dell had supplanted him, but from what we saw in week four, those concerns can be laid to rest. This past Sunday, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Collins had seven receptions on nine targets for 168 yards and two touchdowns, earning 32.3 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. Collins has seen at least nine targets in three of four contests and with Stroud playing at such a high level this amount of volume should continue to pay dividends. In week five, Collins goes up against a struggling Falcons team. While the Falcons have played respectably on defense, Stroud is throwing it nearly 38 times a game and Collins has seen over 21% of those targets. As long as that continues Collins should be in your lineup.
Sam LaPorta (TE)
Detroit Lions vs. CAR (68% Start)
LaPorta has looked every bit the part this season as a reliable target for QB Jared Goff. Both his usage and production to start the season have been encouraging and have led to him being the TE2 on the season. In fact, among all TEs, only Zach Ertz is seeing a larger share of his team’s targets than LaPorta. LaPorta is a matchup nightmare who constantly gets open and makes for an important part of the Lions’ success. Historically, rookie TEs are difficult to trust in fantasy. There are not a lot of examples of rookie TEs producing in their first NFL season, but LaPorta could be the exception to the rule. In week 5, he will go up against a Panthers defense that has been solid against TEs, but they have yet to face an offense as good or that utilizes the TE as much, as the Lions. I would not be scared of the matchup. If you don’t have one of the preseason top-3 options at TE fire up LaPorta.
Jake Ferguson (TE)
Dallas Cowboys vs. SF (27% Start)
Last week I recommended sitting Ferguson. I didn’t like the matchup and thought it would low-scoring. I did not predict the Cowboys would score 38 points (although 14 were by their defense) or that Ferguson would have his best game to date. I was wrong. Hopefully, this week I’ll get it right. Truthfully when trying to assess this crop of TEs it’s hard to determine who will produce each week and who won’t. Consistency is hard to come by, which makes volume even more important, and right now, Ferguson is getting the volume. Ferguson has seen seven targets in three of four games, including catching seven of seven targets in week 4 for 77 yards and 11.2 points in half-PPR formats. This was good enough for a TE6 finish and to make him the TE8 overall on the season. The 49ers have a great defense, but Ferguson will not be their focus. He should have room to operate and Prescott will look his way early and often, making him a fine play in week 5.
Week 5 Sits
Trevor Lawrence (QB)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. BUF (67% Start)
There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment to start the 2023 season. Lawrence has not had a 20-point or multiple-touchdown game since week 1, and has yet to throw for more than 280 yards in a single game. For what was supposed to be an electric, high-octane offense with a lot of firepower this is alarming. I do think better days are ahead for Lawrence and the Jaguars offense, but we may have to wait a bit longer to see those results. In week 5, they get a Buffalo Bills team that is rolling and that boasts a strong offense and defense. The Bills will be able to put up points in this one which could lead to the Jaguars having to pass to keep up and more production for Lawrence, but he’s just as likely to finish with fewer than 250 yards, only one TD, and a couple interceptions. I’d be looking elsewhere, if at all possible, in week 5.
Zack Moss (RB)
Indianapolis Colts vs. TEN (74% Start)
We knew it had to happen eventually and in week 4 we finally saw Zack Moss come crashing down to earth. He did still see an 83% snap share and 19 opportunities, but he did very little with them, finishing with 70 yards and a 2-point conversion, resulting in nine fantasy points. Now he faces a Titans defense that is top-5 against the run while also having to contend with the impending return of star running back Jonathan Taylor. There are reports that Taylor could play in week 5. If he does then Moss is a clear sit. Taylor is the more talented back and without knowing what the workload would be there is too much risk to start Moss. Even if Taylor doesn’t play and Moss is the unquestioned starter, the matchup does not inspire much confidence. Since Moss was a waiver wire pickup for you, you probably have startable options on your bench. Start them.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)
New England Patriots vs. NO (78% Start)
This one pains me. I’m a big believer in Stevenson the player, but the entire Patriots offense has struggled this season and the production for Stevenson has simply not been there. He does get used in the passing game so his floor is somewhat safe, but his upside is capped in this offense. He is still the lead back for the Patriots receiving at least 16 touches in every game, but with a passing game that opposing defenses don’t have to respect Stevenson has not found much space to run. Now he goes up against a stout Saints run defense that hasn’t allowed more than 63 yards to a running back this season, and that was Derrick Henry. With the Patriots’ defense on the other side of the ball, this one could stay close, but nothing we have seen up to this point is encouraging. Sit Stevenson and hope Belichick and the Patriots eventually get things figured out.
George Pickens (WR)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. BAL (62% Start)
So far in 2023, Pickens has had one great game and three pedestrian ones. Pickens is a talented player and eventually, the breakout will come, but it’s not going to be in week 5. The Ravens are a solid defense who have not allowed a 100-yard receiver all season. Beyond that, the Steelers could be without Kenny Pickett after suffering a knee injury in week 4. If he does sit that means Mitch Trubisky would get the start. The one positive is that WR Diontae Johnson still has to sit out one more game so the Steelers will be without his services which could help Pickens find some chemistry with Trubisky. In 2022 in five games which Trubisky started, Johnson saw double-digit targets in all but one, while Pickens saw more than five targets in just one of those games. With no Johnson, those targets will have to go somewhere. They will likely go Pickens’ way, but they likely won’t provide enough production to make Pickens start worthy. Make sure he’s on your bench.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Tennessee Titans vs. IND (60% Start)
Through four weeks Hopkins has scored double-digit fantasy points just once. He has also failed to top 70 yards or score a touchdown. His targets have also left something to be desired. Although he did see 13 targets in week one, since then he has seen a total of 18. Yet, when you watch Hopkins play he is still a talented back who is capable of producing on an NFL field. The issue is I don’t think this Titans offense is capable of producing a top-30 wide receiver. The knock against drafting Hopkins prior to the season was that the Titans are a run-heavy team that would not provide enough opportunities for Hopkins to produce. The counter-argument to that was that you don’t go out and get a wide receiver of Hopkins’ caliber if you don’t intend on using him. Through four games it seems the skeptics were right. In this offense, there is not going to be enough volume for any type of dominant performance like those we’ve seen from him in the past. Sit him if you can.
Kyle Pitts (TE)
Atlanta Falcons vs. HOU (72% Start)
The Falcons’ passing offense is holding their pass-catchers back. Pitts is a dynamic playmaker that any offense with a capable signal caller distributing the ball could make a fantasy star, but Ridder is not that signal caller. It has gotten so bad that through the first four weeks of the season, it isn’t Pitts, or even London, who leads the team in receiving yards. It’s TE Jonnu Smith. Smith also has 15 receptions compared to 11 for Pitts. Even rookie RB Bijan Robinson has more receptions and receiving yards than Pitts on the season. Pitts has had more than two receptions in just one game. Not because he can’t catch the ball, but because no one could catch the balls coming his way. Poor QB play is largely to blame for Pitts’ struggles, but unless the Falcons decide to make a change, those struggles will continue as more passes sail over his head. But hey, those on the sidelines should see plenty of volume.
