Streaming Pitchers
Whenever we’re projecting ahead a few days in advance, the weather or other issues impact the streamer status. With the weekend slate of streamers, we have a limited pitcher pool. We’ll provide a couple of streaming pitchers each day to consider, particularly in deeper leagues. For several, they’re underrated or introduced an early pitch mix change to monitor. We’ll look at early-season splits, K-BB%, arsenal changes, and matchups to identify options. Let’s dive into the weekend starting pitcher streamers for April 15-17.
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Friday Streamers
Brad Keller vs. DET
Against Cleveland, Brad Keller tossed six scoreless innings with two hits, one walk, and five strikeouts. Keller dropped the sinker (21.7%) usage in favor of the changeup (14.5%), with the slider (33.3%) leading the pitch mix.
Keller’s slider and four-seam performed well, with the four-seam eliciting a 40% Whiff% and 33% CSW%. The slider velocity sat 1.6 mph higher than 2021 with a 31% Whiff% and 30% CSW%. Regardless of what we think about Cleveland’s lineup, the team rocks a .382 wOBA (No. 1).
Meanwhile, Detroit sits in the bottom ten in team wOBA at .281 (No. 24), meaning it’s a viable streaming matchup. The Tigers also rank 24th with an 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Although many sharp players scooped up Keller after his first quality start, look to stream Keller in 10-12 team leagues against Detroit, given the possible pitch mix changes and matchup.
MacKenzie Gore vs. ATL
At this point, many fantasy managers probably stashed the former top pitching prospect in MacKenzie Gore. With Blake Snell likely heading towards the injured list, it opens up a spot for Gore against the Braves. Unfortunately, it’s a tough matchup with the Braves hitters ranking 8th with a .368 wOBA and 141 wRC+ against lefties.
In 12 innings in spring training, Gore went 12 IP with 16 strikeouts and two walks paired with a 4.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. In Gore’s recent Triple-A appearance, he threw five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and zero walks. Although it’s risky to stream Gore in his first start against the 2021 World Series Champions, prospect growth isn’t linear, and Gore’s stuff and strikeout upside make him worth the risk.
Saturday Streamers
Steven Matz at MIL
It feels risky recommending Steven Matz against the Brewers after Matz struggled with seven earned runs against the Pirates. However, the Pirates surprisingly rank highly with the 146 wRC+ (No. 6) and .369 wOBA (No. 7) against lefties. Although Matz only lasted three innings, he struck out five with only one walk against the Pirates. Matz dealt with a blister but is ready to go against the Brewers.
Matz’s overall 32% Whiff% and 35% CSW% against the Pirates looked solid, especially with the sinker and changeup. That said, we shouldn’t overreact to the results of Matz’s first start. Sneakily, the Pirates have a .382 BABIP (No. 4) versus lefties and a .328 BABIP (No. 3) overall in the early season. That indicates the Pirates hitters put balls in play, which doesn’t bode well for a contact-oriented pitcher like Matz.
Meanwhile, the Brewers rank 22nd with a .260 BABIP against all pitchers and 21st with a .245 BABIP against lefties. The wRC+ against lefties of 71 (No. 24) and .264 wOBA (No. 26) align with the early struggles for the Brewers hitters. A reminder that we’re dealing with small samples, but it’s an early trend to monitor that should give us confidence in streaming Matz against the Brewers.
Taylor Hearn vs. LAA
Against Colorado, Taylor Hearn went four innings and allowed eight hits, one earned run, and one walk with six punchouts. Although Hearn helped in ERA, the eight hits made the WHIP balloon as he allowed a ton of contact with a .615 BABIP and 91.7% Z-Contact%.
In Hearn’s first start, he used the slider 34.2% of the time, up from 20% in 2021. Hearn’s slider finished with a 36.8% Whiff% and 35% CSW%. Hearn relied on the four-seamer (46.2%) and sinker (21.4%) in 2021, so it’s intriguing to see an early pitch mix change.
Although Jesús Luzardo likely contributed to the outlier numbers, the Angels rank last with a .190 wOBA and 24 wRC+ against lefties. Versus all pitchers, the Angels hitters rank middle of the pack with a .293 wOBA (No. 20) and 87 wRC+ (No. 21). Expect Hearn to go five innings with the potential for a quality start against the Angels. Hearn’s 11.3% K-BB% in 2021 could improve, meaning Hearn possibly provides more strikeouts moving forward with the pitch mix change.
Sunday Streamers
Austin Gomber vs. CHC
Recency bias can hurt or help us. In 2021, many fantasy managers won’t forget Austin Gomber’s implosion with nine earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Giants on April 26. From that point on, Gomber posted a 4.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate in 92.1 innings. Amongst Rockies pitchers with at least 50 innings, Gomber ranked first in ERA, tied for second in WHIP, first in K-BB%, third in SwStr%, and first in CSW% from May 1 and beyond.
In Gomber’s first start, the velocity on the four-seamer dropped about one mph, with the slider down almost two mph. Don’t panic about the velocity dip since that occurred with many pitchers to begin the season. Gomber’s slider looked silly with a 53% Whiff% and 38% CSW% against the Rangers. The Cubs rank middle of the pack with a .298 wOBA (No. 15), .671 OPS (No. 15), and 98 wRC+ (No. 16) against lefties.
It’s risky to stream a Rockies pitcher at home, especially with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Willson Contreras crushing in the top-20 in wRC+. We know the risks with Gomber, but the skills looked solid last season.
Tyler Alexander at KC
Against the Red Sox, Tyler Alexander went 5.1 innings with five hits, three earned runs, zero walks, and four strikeouts. Last season, Alexander used a diverse arsenal of the cutter (35.4%), sinker (20.6%), changeup (18.4%), four-seam (15.1%), and slider (10.5%).
Alexander threw the sinker, changeup, and cutter at a double-digit rate in his first start. Although Alexander’s cutter didn’t elicit a ton of whiffs in 2021 with an 18.4% Whiff%, it had above average horizontal and vertical movement in 2021.
Tyler Alexander added a cutter in 2020 that he threw 17.2% of the time that doubled in usage at 35.4% in 2021.
Alexander pitches to contact (84.1% Contact%) with the zone-heavy approach with the fastballs & cutter.
Changeup looks interesting:
-13.6% SwStr%
-45.5% O-Swing% pic.twitter.com/XLQaSjji70— Corbin (@corbin_young21) January 27, 2022
Against lefties, the Royals have a .278 wOBA (No. 23), .610 OPS (No. 21), and 80 wRC+ (No. 22). They also have a league-worst .154 BABIP versus lefties in front of the Astros (.157), meaning the Royals haven’t put many balls in play. The Royals have performed worse against righties, but Alexander serves as a low-upside streamer for ratios and innings.
José Quintana vs. WAS
Against José Quintana‘s former team, he went 5.1 innings and allowed five hits, one earned run, and two walks with three strikeouts. Tyler Alexander might be a newer version of José Quintana, where they’re more innings eaters than pitchers with strikeout abilities.
Interestingly, Quintana relied on the changeup (38%) and four-seam (35.2%) in his first start. Of course, Quintana mixed in the curve 21.1% of the time. However, Quintana never used the changeup more than 14.6% of the time. A reminder that the opposing offenses usually stack righties against Quintana or lefty pitchers, so Quintana threw all 27 changeups against righties. If Quintana adjusts the pitch mix and elicits whiffs on the changeup, particularly against righties, we might want to scoop him up in 15-team leagues.
On paper, the Nationals rank middle of the pack with a .281 wOBA (No. 17), 83 wRC+ (No. 18), and .615 OPS (No. 20) against lefties. However, the top of their lineup with César Hernández, Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, and Keibert Ruiz could cause problems for Quintana since he lacks an arsenal with swings and misses.
