Betting Guide for Super Bowl LV
When it comes to holidays, no annual activity tops the Super Bowl for its unsurpassed combination of football, food, and fun. Of course, the NFL finale isn’t technically a holiday, but the Super Bowl itself has become one of the biggest international events of each year.
The Super Bowl is not only the grand finale of another NFL season, but the game itself is widely viewed as the biggest television event annually. Even people who don’t watch a single down of football season will gather for the aura and festivities of Super Bowl watch parties that can take on a life of their own.
While the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will almost certainly cause Super Bowl LV gatherings to be severely toned down, fans who enjoy sports betting will undoubtedly be looking for an escape and a fun way to end what has been a challenging year. With more people stuck at home and access to legal betting more prominent than ever, we could see a record amount of money wager on Sunday, February 7.
Even if you’re a novice to betting, having a little something extra on the game can make the most anticipated sports event of the year even better. For seasoned gamblers or first-time bettors, here is a guideline to a fun and profitable Super Bowl LV.
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FantasyData’s New Sports Betting Site
Most of our Super Bowl LV content will be coming out on our new sports betting site BettingData this week! There you can get FREE picks for not only the Super Bowl between the Cheifs and Bucs but for all games in all sports. BettingData has some awesome tools and Live Odds pages to make sure that if you are going to place a bet that you find the odds with the best return.
Money Line
Assuming that all “units” wagered are in increments of 100 dollars, betting a slight favorite of -120 means you’re gambling $120 to win that $100. If the favorite won, you’d get back $220 total, the $100 for picking the correct winner plus your original $120 investment.
The underdog would come with a + value, so picking a decent underdog at +150 would pay $250 total on a $100 wager. Underdogs have outright won the Super Bowl 18 times, including six of the past nine contests. This bodes well for the Buccaneers, who opened up as 3.5-point home underdogs to Kansas City.
This will only be the second time in 10 trips that Tom Brady will be an underdog in a Super Bowl. With his history of heroics and the value of the Bucs returning $140 on a $100 bet, the value seems to be with Tampa.
However, these two teams played back in Week 12 in this very same stadium, and Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-24 victory. Even with a decimated KC offensive line, Andy Reid is likely to conduct a winning game-plan given two weeks of prep time.
The smart play here is to avoid the money line, but if you must, bet on Reid leading his team to a second consecutive Lombardi Trophy.
Money Line Pick: Kansas City -175 (0-1 unit)
Point Spread
Playing against the spread offers a lot more incentive to consider betting on the underdog. For each game played, Vegas establishes a spread, assigning negative points to the favored team and positive to the underdog. In other words, they think a dominant, 15-1 team tagged with a (-10) figure should beat their opponents by 10 or more points.
A general rule of thumb is that home-field advantage is worth three points, but since Super Bowls are played on neutral fields, that’s never been a factor until 2021, where the Bucs could gain a slight edge by playing at Raymond James Stadium.
Spreads of three or fewer points are considered relatively close games, and you’ll also see a +/- payout which can help sway you if you’re having trouble deciding on which team to take against the spread.
Occasionally, Vegas gets the point spread exactly right, which is called a push (no bet) and your bet is returned sans any profit. Often, you’ll see a ½ point number which assures there will not be any pushes.
Last year, the Chiefs were slight (-1.5) favorites against the 49ers and easily covered that spread with their resounding 31-20 victory. That brought favorite’s all-time record in Super Bowls to 27-25-2.
The AFC Championship game was the first time Kanas City has covered since November 1st. For the season, the Chiefs posted a mediocre 8-10 record against the number.
Tampa Bay has been better, posting an 11-8 record ATS. When these two clubs squared off in November, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes combined to throw for 807 passing yards and three scores and the Bucs covered the spread.
Fast forward two months and we see an identical scenario. These teams will once again square off at Raymond James and the Chiefs are favored by the same 3.5. This is the 14th time in NFL history that teams that squared off in the regular-season will have a rematch and the team that lost that matchup currently old a 7-6 edge in the finale.
Tom Brady has only been a playoff underdog seven times throughout his illustrious career and he holds a 4-3 record against the spread in those games. With so many scenarios favoring Tampa, the smart play here is to avoid the money line and bet on Brady and company getting the points.
ATS Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5 (3 units)
Over/Under
Rather than picking a team to win or lose, over/under bettors simply are betting on the total amount of points that Vegas projects to be scored by both teams. That total score can also tell you implied totals, like a 50 point line with a favorite of 4 points means the projected score is 27-23.
Playing against a score allows the football fan to simply root for (or against) points instead of choosing sides. Under bettors want to see lots of punts and run-heavy drives while people going with over want an all-out, fast-paced, and closely-contested battle. It’s an easy enough concept that anyone can get involved in the action.
Amazingly, the all-time record for the over/under is tied, 26-26-1, with over hitting in six of the last eight games, and three of the last four. There was no total given for Super Bowl 1.
The line for the Week 12 battle between the Chiefs and Bucs was 56. Despite the offensive fireworks, the final score was well under.
For the 2020 NFL season, I posted a 60-32-3 mark on totals and ranked as FantasyPro’s top expert. I picked UNDER 56 back in Week 12 and I’m looking to do that once again here in February.
Over/Under Pick: UNDER 56.5 (3 units)
Super Bowl Squares
Super Bowl squares are the most popular way to play for cash and are easy enough for even kiddos to follow. Rather than having some sort of strategy or edge, the winner of this game all comes down to straight luck of the draw.
Essentially, you create a 10X10 grid and assign AFC to one side and NFC to the other. Allow all participants to “buy” a spot by filling in their names. Once you’ve filled out all 100 squares, you randomly draw numbers 0-9 and fill out the corresponding sides.
Each square would now represent a numbered combo, like AFC 7, NFC 3. That number would then represent the score at the end of each of the Super Bowl’s four quarters. So if the Chiefs were leading the Buccaneers 7-3 at the end of the first, the person who had that square wins one-quarter of the pot.
Generally, overtime would be considered an extension of the fourth quarter, but some people award more points for the final score or halftime over the first and third quarters. The possibilities are endless and squares are easy and fun enough for non-football fans and kids to enjoy.
Coin Toss
If you’re looking for simple, it doesn’t get any easier than betting on a proverbial 50/50 coin toss. A fun way to start off the game, just allow someone to choose heads or tails and find another person to go the other way.
Since a coin toss is completely random, there are no real strategies for determining whether the flip will be head or tails, but tails has been hot. After heads came up a record-setting five times in a row from Super Bowls 43-47, tails has been flipped in six of the last seven games and holds a 29-25 lead all time.
Pass the Cup
Pass the hat or cup is another fun and easy game but is also more diverse in the rules are entirely up to the house. Think ‘mound ball’ but with football.
Those interested in playing can get a cup or hat, add a dollar and choose what determines a winner. If the person holding the cash that round chooses correctly, he or she wins the pot. If not, everyone adds another buck and the pool grows for the next player.
This game can be as easy as choosing any score in each drive wins, to even each play. The more people who play and the more bets are made means more cash can change hands. It can be a simple as four people playing that each drive ending in a score wins to determining that a completed pass on the next play takes it.
Commercial Bingo
Inevitably, a non-football fan will be invited to a Super Bowl party, but that doesn’t mean they can’t participate in the fun. Those interested can customize a bingo card with all the known sponsors who have purchased commercial time during the game.
If that sponsor’s ad plays and you have it on your card, color the square. The first person to make a bingo across or down wins. Easy, and enjoyable for those unfortunate souls who don’t enjoy football.
Sports fans around the world love NFL football, and concluding each season with the biggest party possible has become a time-honored tradition. Wagering is one of the thousands of reasons why Super Bowl Sunday is one of the greatest days of any year.
However, you choose to enjoy Super Bowl LV, make sure you’re safe, responsible, and never gamble what you can’t afford to lose. This is supposed to be a banner day, so enjoy it responsibly…Super Bowl LVI in Inglewood is a long, 365 days away.
