PGA DFS Picks
Farmers Insurance Open
Utilize information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open, and take a look at our PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last week: Last week was an interesting four days with so many golfers in contention but it was Si Woo Kim stealing it in round 4 with an -8, 64, to claim the win over Patrick Cantlay by a stroke – congrats to the talented South Korean on his third PGA Tour win! We got to see lots of eagles and birdies as expected which is always entertaining.
Preview for the Farmers Insurance Open: The PGA Tour remains in sunny, Southern California this week for an event that has been an annual spectacle since 1952. Tiger Woods and George Burns currently hold the tournament record at -22, in 1999 and 1987, respectively, and Justin Rose is the modern-day master at this venue with a -21 just two years ago. The past five winners of this event include 2020 – Marc Leishman, 2019 – Justin Rose, 2018 – Jason Day, 2017- Jon Rahm, and 2016 – Brandt Snedeker.
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $7.5M, the winner receives $1.35M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Since 1968, this event has had a tradition of playing on two courses at Torrey Pines Golf Course – the South Course and North Course. Each golfer plays both the South and North Course in the first two rounds, and then the South Course is played exclusively by every player who makes the cut on the weekend. The South Course is 7,765-yard, par 72, and the greens are Poa Annua. The North Course is shorter at 7,258 yards, is also a par 72, and also features Poa Annua greens. The winning score has ranged from -6 to -21 over the past ten years, so depending on the weather and course conditions, the scores can fluctuate widely. Some of the key player stats to research this week are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Strokes Gained: Par 5s, Proximity Gained 175+ Yards.
The field: We have a fairly-stacked field for this year’s tournament with a full-field of 156 golfers set to do battle – as normal, we will see the top 65 players plus ties play the weekend for rounds 3 and 4. We get to see Jon Rahm (if he doesn’t withdraw for the second consecutive week), Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, and lots of other elite talent tee it up on Thursday. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A-.
Notable storylines: Jason Day will be making his 2021 debut and is a two-time winner of the Farmers (in 2015 and 2018), so he looks to make a soft landing at an event that he’s had great success at. Marc Leishman can become the tournament’s fourth back to back winner should he reign victorious on Sunday – Mickelson, Woods, and J.C. Snead are the three who have done it so far with Tiger winning four times in a row from 2005 to 2008 and he has won a ridiculous 7 times in total. We won’t see Tiger this week though, unfortunately, as he recently had yet another back surgery, so he will be out for a few months but ideally will return in time for the Masters in April.
Betting strategy this week: With another full-field on tap again this week, and with lots of great players missing the cut last week in a similar setup, you may want to play more hybrid lineups this week that mixes the stars and scrubs and balanced approaches. My highest fantasy scoring lineup from last week featured two mid to upper $9K players, one in the lower $8K range, and my three others had a salary range of $7.1-$7.6K. I think I’ll adopt a similar salary structure allocation this week for my core lineup builds, but that could change as the week progresses.
All the best for pulling down some wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K, FanDuel – $11.6K) – It seemed like we saw every one of Finau’s strokes last week on TV as he was front and center throughout the tournament, and for good reason, as he played great and finished 4th. He’s 7 for 7 this season with three top 10’s and the worst he has finished is T38 at the Masters. I smell that he’s hungry for just his second PGA Tour win, and think it could come as soon as this week – even in a relatively strong field as he’s in tip-top form now and has a sparkling record at Torrey Pines. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T6, 2019 – T13, 2018 – T6, 2017 – T4, and 2016 – T18.
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K, FanDuel – $12.1K) – It appears as though Rahm will return to action this week after tweaking something while working out in the gym a week or so ago. Rahm is rolling along quite well so far in this campaign with a T2, T7, T7, in his last three starts, and has fared no worse than T23 which came at the U.S. Open back in late September. He won this event four years ago and was runner up last year so the tracks play to his game and he should be geared up this week to earn his first victory since the BMW Championship last August. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T5, 2018 – T29, and 2017 – Won.
The $9K Range
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – English won just two starts ago at the Tournament of Champions, has five top 10’s in eight starts this season, and has finished no worse than T32 since mid-October of last year. He’s consistent and has solid upside as well, and although his salary numbers are a bit high compared to what we’re used to – he’s earned and deserves them. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T71, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T8, 2017 – T14, and 2016 – T31.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K, FanDuel – $11.2K) – Much like English above, Hovland also won two starts ago at the Mayakoba Golf Classic early last month. He only has one top 10 so far this year but it was that win, and he has four other top 23’s in 8 starts. He’s very talented off the tee, in greens in regulation, in the sand, and is 15th in scoring average. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Cut.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – After round two last week I thought that Im was going to walk away with the win at The American Express, but he came unraveled in round 3 shooting one over and couldn’t go low enough on Sunday to settle for T12. He’s 10 for 11 so far this season with two top 10’s including his impressive runner-up finish at the Masters. The workhorse should put on another good show this week and does have the ability to win as he has one already in his young career which came at The Honda Classic. His fellow country-mate, Si Woo Kim, won last week so he could be extra motivated to match him this week. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T36 and 2019 – T52.
The $8K Range
Si Woo Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K, FanDuel – $10.2K) – Kim was spectacular last week shooting four straight rounds in the range of 64 to 68 to win his third title on the PGA Tour and his first since 2017. He is 7 for 9 since September, has the win, earned a T8 at the Shriners, and over his past seven starts, he has finished no worse than T37 aside from a missed cut at the Houston Open in early November. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T29, 2018 – T35, and 2016 – T18.
Jason Day (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K, FanDuel – $10.3K) – Day has been up and down over his last two or three seasons but is currently up with a T7 and a T12 over his last three starts. The only problem is that he hasn’t played since The RSM Classic back in November so he could show some rust this week. There’s no guarantee of Day even making the cut this week but he has won this event twice – his most recent win came just three years ago, plus he’s been solid since then too. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T16, 2019 – T5, 2018 – Won, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – Cut.
Marc Leishman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K, FanDuel – $10.4K) – I have been so off of Leishman but now he’s starting to intrigue me again as he’s coming off a T4 at the Sony Open two weeks ago and he won here last year, so perhaps the stars are aligning for the Aussie this week. He also had a T13 at the Masters last year, so he has shown fairly recently that he can compete at the highest level. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 – T43, 2018 – T8, 2017 – T20, and 2016 – Cut.
The $7K Range
John Huh (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K, FanDuel – $8.8K) – Huh has four top 21’s this season in five starts, and his other finish was a T48 – so he’s a great value pick up this week at $7K flat on DK. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T45, 2019 – T25, 2018 – T45, 2017 – 76th, and 2016 – T8.
Doug Ghim (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K, FanDuel – $8.1K) – A lot of fantasy users jumped off the Ghim train last week as he finished T117 in his previous start at the Sony Open – bad idea, as he was T5 last week thanks to his consistent scoring of 67 to 69 throughout the tournament. He is 7 for 9 this season and is riding high via his best PGA Tour finish to date. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T20.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K, FanDuel – $9.5K) – Conners had a shaky start to his season but is playing some excellent, consistent golf now with three top 10’s in his last five starts (including a T10 at the Masters) and his worst finish during that span is a T24. Pretty much the only two things that hold Corey back from stardom is his putting and his around the green game, but everything else is quite good. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2018 – T29.
The $6K Range
Wyndham Clark (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K, FanDuel – $7.9K) – Clark has made his last 5 of 6 cut lines, had a runner-up finish at the Bermuda Championship, a T13 at the Shriners, and was T23 at The RSM Classic. Not many people would realize it, but he ranks 4th in driving distance on the PGA Tour at 316.4 yards and is 19th in eagle average, so he knows how to score. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T35.
Justin Suh (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K, FanDuel – $8.4K) – Suh is a promising, young talent who may be a bit of a flyer this week but has two top 14’s this season in just three starts including a T8 back in late September. If he wants to become a regular on the PGA Tour he will have to earn it, and I think we will see more strong play from Justin this week.
Martin Laird (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K, FanDuel – $8.0K) – Laird won five starts ago at the Shriners, was T17 at the Tournament of Champions, and is coming off only a T47 last week despite his solid opening round of 66. He looks like a pretty good sub-$7K value for this week and is 4th in greens in regulation so he is superb at getting onto the dance floor. Farmers Insurance Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T55, 2019 – T43, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T74, and 2016 – T8.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s American Express
The $10K+ Range
- Tony Finau – 4th
- Patrick Reed – Cut
- Patrick Cantlay – 2nd
The $9K Range
- Scottie Scheffler – Cut
- Russell Henley – Cut
- Sungjae Im – T12
The $8K Range
- Adam Long – 69th
- Patton Kizzire – 53rd
- Sam Burns – Cut
The $7K Range
- Charles Howell III – Cut
- Peter Malnati – Cut
- Jon Huh – T21
The $6K Range
- Martin Laird – T47
- Brice Garnett – Cut
- Jim Herman – Cut
