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Sam Howell (QB)
*Most passing attempts per game of any QB
Don’t look now, but Washington Commanders QB, Sam Howell has quietly become the QB6 on the season, finishing as a top-12 quarterback in over half of his games. If not for a week 3 contest against the Buffalo Bills that I’m sure Howell would prefer to forget, he would probably be higher than QB6. In that game, he threw four interceptions, no touchdowns, and finished with .6 fantasy points. Yes, .6. Many thought with the 2nd-year Howell under center, the Commanders would be a very run-heavy team, but that has not been the case. Howell has been allowed to throw early and often, at times by design and other times out of necessity. Whatever the reason though, it has led to Howell owning the most pass attempts per game of any quarterback in the NFL. It’s unfortunate that Howell’s volume and level of play have not led to more wins. The Commanders sit in third place in the NFC East with a 4-5 record, but of those five losses, three have been by a single score, so the Commanders have been competitive throughout the majority of the season, and Howell is a major reason why. Don’t look for Howell to stop airing it out. With a stalling run game and weapons like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at his disposal, putting the game in the Howell’s hands is their best chance of securing a win.
C.J. Stroud (QB)
*One interception through eight games
We all saw what C.J. Stroud did on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even before the final 75-yard, game-winning drive, in the final 46 seconds, Stroud was having an impressive game. That final drive was simply the cherry on top of an already elite-level performance. In that contest, Stroud broke one rookie record and tied another and looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the league while doing it. Still, the most impressive Stroud statistic is that he still only has one interception on the season and it took him six weeks to even get that one. If the Texans were limiting his attempts it may not be as impressive, but Stroud is attempting nearly 35 passes a game and has three games of 40+ pass attempts. Stroud also has 15 total touchdowns (14 through the air) to go with that single interception. With every week it becomes more and more clear that Stroud was more deserving of the No. 1 selection in the 2023 NFL draft than Bryce Young. Stroud’s weapons are not any more proven than Young’s. They might be less so, but receivers Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown have all flashed this season and, along with tight-end Dalton Schultz, have provided Stroud with reliable targets to depend upon. We can’t expect this type of performance every week from Stroud, but with his full ability on display on Sunday, the Texans would be wise to continue to rely on him over the next four weeks as he faces defenses that are all fantasy-friendly to quarterbacks.
Rachaad White (RB)
*2nd most receptions among running backs
Well, this was unexpected. Through the first nine weeks, Rachaad White has the second most receptions among all running backs with 34. That is nine fewer than Alvin Kamara and one more than Christian McCaffrey. It’s not as if he isn’t being used as a rusher with four games of at least 15 carries, but most weeks the majority of his fantasy production comes through the air. A surprising development for a team that has not made it a point to throw to their running backs and for a running back that is not especially known for his prowess as a pass catcher. It’s made more impressive on a team that boasts talented wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. There is the chance that as tight end Cade Otton continues to get more involved in this offense, White’s targets could go down. It would not be surprising to see Otton take some of those short-yardage attempts and dump-offs away from White, especially after Otton broke out in week 9 with six receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns. However, until we see it there is no reason to assume White won’t continue to be targeted by quarterback Baker Mayfield and continue to produce with those opportunities. As long as he does he will remain a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes, but if those receptions go away, he will be more of a flex option that you hope finds his way to a rushing touchdown.
Raheem Mostert (RB)
*Most fantasy points per attempt among all running backs with at least 50 attempts
Mostert has been a solid fantasy running back in his ninth season. Coming into the season, in a backfield that also included Jeff Wilson, Jr., Salvon Ahmed, and rookie De’Von Achane, managers weren’t sure what to expect from the 31-year-old Mostert. Injuries and volume were both a real concern, but through nine weeks neither has been an issue. Mostert has stayed healthy and has been heavily involved and is currently the RB2 on the season. With his 756 total yards and 13 combined touchdowns, Mostert has been carrying many fantasy squads on his back, but you may not know just how impressive his 2023 season has been. While the RB2, Mostert’s 1.57 fantasy points per attempt leads all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts. The Dolphins have a bye in week 10, and after that, it remains to be seen what the split will be in this backfield. Coach Mike McDaniel stated on Monday that Achane hasn’t experienced any sort of setback and is trending toward a week 11 return. That could limit some of Mostert’s upside. Achane will never be the type of back that gets bell cow usage, but he has shown how electric he is with the ball in his hands and should get 10-15 touches a game, making it hard for Mostert to get the same type of workload he currently enjoys. If Achane is indeed returning in a couple of weeks, it may be a good time to sell high on Mostert.
James Cook (RB)
*Only two total touchdowns on the season
Coming into the 2023 season, Bills 2nd-year running back, James Cook was a popular breakout candidate. He showed flashes of his upside in 2022 and with Devin Singletary in Houston and seemingly no real competition for touches in the Bills backfield the sky was the limit for Cook. While Cook hasn’t been bad, the RB19 was not what we were hoping for when we drafted him. Plus, his RB19 ranking is boosted by three double-digit outings, but those are his only three double-digit performances. In his other six games, he finished outside the top-25 at the position five times. The volume has mostly been there with Cook seeing at least 13 touches in all but two games, but the production has not, because Cook has found the end zone just twice this season. It’s been hard for Cook to get involved in the scoring. When they are in the red zone, quarterback Josh Allen prefers to target Stefon Diggs or one of his two tight ends, and near the goal line, it has been either Latavius Murray or Josh Allen who have run it in. That leaves very little for Cook. This is a trend I don’t see changing any time soon. The Bills have often relied on a power back or the legs of Josh Allen when close to the goal line, and Allen has been resistant to targeting his running backs in the red zone. Cook will remain a decent RB2 and a very good flex play, but he will likely continue to lack the upside we were hoping for coming into the season.
A.J. Brown (WR)
*Most contested targets and receptions among wide receivers
There is no other way to put it. A.J. Brown has been an absolute beast this season. Since week 2, Brown has failed to finish as a top-12 wide receiver just once, and that week he was WR13. Over the last seven weeks, Brown has finished as a top-3 wide receiver three times. He also broke the record for most consecutive games with at least 125 yards receiving with six over that span. He is also top-5 in total targets, so he has been heavily involved. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of all this is that he leads the league in contested targets and contested receptions with 19 and 12 respectively. That means over 20% of his targets have been contested and yet he has managed to produce by winning those matchups. The Eagles have a bye in week 10, but coming out of it Brown’s success should continue. The Eagles remain a pass-heavy team and Brown is the clear alpha and No. 1 target for quarterback Jalen Hurts. Brown is extremely difficult to guard. He is often bigger, stronger, and faster than those guarding him making him a matchup nightmare. I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but I imagine Brown will be on the roster of many league winners this season.
Adam Thielen (WR)
*Fewest air yards per game of any top-12 wide receiver
Don’t get me wrong, Adam Thielen is still a set-it-and-forget WR2/flex for fantasy purposes, but after an extremely hot start to the season, he has cooled off a bit. Since coming out of the bye week, Thielen has failed to finish in the top-30 at the position. This is after finishing inside the top-20 four times and inside the top-5 three times in the first six weeks. Thielen is still a top-10 WR this season, due to the strength of his early season success, but I do have some concerns that he may not be able to reach those heights again in 2023. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is still looking like a rookie and the skill players are suffering because of it. This has led to Thielen having the fewest air yards of any wide receiver currently in the top-12 at the position. I still think Thielen will have value moving forward and return low-end WR2 production, but I’m not sure the upside we saw earlier in the season is still there for Thielen. Remember, this is a 33-year-old wide receiver that many thought was washed up coming into this season. While assumptions about his inability to continue to play at a high level appear to have been premature, that doesn’t mean we should count on him to finish in the top-10 at the position. A Thursday night contest against the Chicago Bears will tell us a lot. In what should be a favorable matchup, if Thielen fails to produce, it may be time to worry.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
*Zero end zone targets
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a solid season so far, with more ups than downs. Through the first nine weeks of the season, St. Brown has scored double-digit points in every game, with three top-12 finishes, and even a top-2 finish back in week 6. He has also had at least seven targets and five receptions each week, with five games of 100+ receiving yards, all culminating in his current WR11 ranking. Still, St. Brown only has three touchdowns on the season and zero end zone targets. To be fair to St. Brown his production has not typically come from touchdowns. St. Brown finished as the WR8 in half-PPR formats in 2022 and only had six receiving touchdowns, so St. Brown should be fine and remain an automatic start for any manager lucky enough to have him. He is an elite young talent who has earned the trust of his quarterback and is the clear No. 1 target in this offense with 12 or more targets in three of the last five games. Hopefully, during the second half of the season, St. Brown will be able to add a few more touchdowns to his reception and yardage totals. If he does that we will be looking at a top-5 receiver instead of a top-12 one.
Dallas Goedert (TE)
*Most routes run among tight ends
Dallas has been a frustrating tight end in fantasy circles this season. While he is currently the TE9, that’s largely because the production at the tight end position overall has been unpredictable. But through the first nine weeks, Goedert has just two top-5 finishes at the position, while finishing outside the top-15 the other seven weeks. This is made even more frustrating when you realize he is running more routes than any other tight end, running a route on 34.3% of snaps. With the emergence of D’Andre Swift and a competent run game, as well as A.J. Brown soaking up targets, Goedert has found it hard to contribute much of value. Much of this is because Goedert has seen many of his targets close to the line of scrimmage. The two times his yards per attempt reached 13 or higher are the same two weeks he finished in the top-5 at the position, but those opportunities have been few and far between. Now it seems likely Goedert will be placed on injured reserve after suffering a forearm injury this past Sunday night that will require surgery. I don’t see any way he doesn’t end up a bust in 2023, and if you’re one of those managers who has been relying on him, I’d be trying to add a player like Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, or Hunter Henry to get you through at least the next four weeks.
George Kittle (TE)
*Most yards per reception among tight ends
George Kittle is an elite talent at the tight end position, and in recent weeks he has begun to play like it with three top-8 finishes in the last four weeks, even finishing as the TE1 in a week 5 showdown against Dallas. Through the first four weeks of the season, managers were beginning to worry about Kittle’s lack of production, but he has begun to turn things around and is now the TE7 on the season. Over the last two weeks, he has seen 18 targets, but it’s not just the usage that is encouraging, it’s where he is seeing those targets. Kittle is seeing a bulk of his work downfield, with more yards per reception (13.84) than any other tight end in football. It needs to be said that star wide receiver, Deebo Samuel has been out with a shoulder injury the last two weeks, which could explain some of Kittle’s production. With Samuel trending toward returning this week against Jacksonville, we could see fewer targets for Kittle. Hopefully, during the bye week, they have figured out a way to keep their big, talented tight end involved. Kittle is a matchup nightmare for any opposing defense and with there still being questions surrounding Brock Purdy, allowing him to spread the ball around a bit more may be just what he needs to find consistent success. Regardless, Kittle is one of the few automatic starts at tight end. Here’s hoping his success over the last two weeks carries over to the second half of the season.
