Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour makes its way back from Japan to Gillisonville, South Carolina, for this year’s edition of the CJ Cup. We have a no-cut event with just 78 players in action this week.
There’s $10.5M to be won this week, the winner secures $1.837M and also nails down 500 FedEx Cup points. Congaree Golf Club is 7,655 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament since 2017 when it first started is -19, but we haven’t seen this track used yet. Garrick Higgo won the Palmetto Championship in 2021 with a score of -11, so I think given the elite players we have here this week, the winning score should be in the high teens. Place bets on golfers who are accurate off the tee blocks, solid on approach, good on Bermuda greens, sound with wedges around the greens, and competent from tee to green.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the CJ Cup this week:
- Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts (includes all tours)? Rory McIlroy with 4, Taylor Montgomery with 4, Sungjae Im with 3, Jon Rahm with 3, Tom Kim with 3, and Sepp Straka also with 3.
- Which players have the most top 10’s at the CJ Cup over the last five years? Gary Woodland has 3, Justin Thomas has 2 – both were wins, Tyrrell Hatton with 2, and several players have 1.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes at this course in 2021 for Palmetto Championship? Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chez Reavie, Harris English, Seamus Power, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner, and Byeong Hun An.
Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and won’t bet. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.
Quick Links:
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Sungjae Im (+1800) – Im gained in all major stat categories (except for a loss of 1.56 off the tee) on this course in 2021 to finish T35, but it could have been much better if his short game was better as it usually is. He is currently hot with six straight top 29’s and three of those were T2’s. I like everything I see out of Sungjae right now including his stat lines, and will be betting him to win, to finish top 5, and top 10.
Jon Rahm (+900) – He won last week’s Open de Espana on the DP World Tour gaining an insane 21.02 strokes to the field. He had a T2 before that on the same tour, a T5 in the first leg of the playoffs last season, and has four straight top 15’s. His ball-striking is usually quite strong and his putter has been going gangbusters over his last three starts gaining a collective 18.75 strokes. I might bet him to win and will be for sure betting him to finish top 5 and top 10.
Tom Hoge (+7000) – Hoge offers a bunch of value here given he’s performing like a star over his last six starts with five top 12’s including two T4’s. His ball-striking and putting have been fantastic since late July, and I’ll be betting him to finish top 10 and top 20 this week.
Andrew Putnam (+6500) – If you’re looking to catch lightning in a bottle then take a gander at Putnam who’s coming off the T2 last week in Japan and has four top 12’s over his last seven starts with another two top 30’s during that stretch. Aside from an average to below average off the tee play, the rest of his game is in fine form and he can make you money this week. I’m on the +160 for a top 20 and might do a top 10 wager, but I can’t commit to it just yet.
Max Homa (+1600) – He has been on a nice heater over his last four starts if you count the Presidents Cup as he was outstanding there, and won three starts ago at the Fortinet Championship, had a T5 at the Tour Championship, and is coming off a T20 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He has a game that should play well on this track – I’ll be on the top 10 bet for him and might hammer the top 20 hard since he’s currently -165 on DK Sportsbook.
5 Players That I Might Bet
Rory McIlroy (+650) – I’ll likely be betting Rory this week since he keeps producing top 5’s and every part of his game is in top-notch form. I don’t like his odds so that’s why he’s in this section, but if you get aggressive enough with wagers, that offsets the uninviting odds. I’ll likely bet last year’s CJ Cup winner to win this week, finish top 5, and top 10 also.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800) – Fitzpatrick typically has a top 10 or top 20 finish – he’s coming off a missed cut last week on the DP World Tour but that’s likely a positive so he can be more rested and ready to go this week. His stats are extremely attractive, and he had a top 10 on this track last year. I likely won’t wager him to win this week but will likely bet the top 10 and the top 20 also.
Tom Kim (+2800) – He has made me a bunch of money recently thanks to winning twice over his last four starts, and I’ll likely be betting him to win this week again just in case he pops again. His stats are impressive and when his putter is hot then he either wins or is right in the hunt. I expect to bet him outright and the top 10, as well.
Tyrrell Hatton (+3500) – He wasn’t all that good last week in Japan, but had a T7 and an 8th on the DP World Tour prior to that. He had a T2 on this course last year so he seems to be comfortable here and could come out firing again this week. I’m probably going to bet him to finish top 10 and top 20, and may go rather big on the top 20 at +115.
S.H. Kim (+15000) – I really like that Kim had a T4 in his most recent start at the Shriners Children’s Open two weeks ago gaining 6.13 strokes ball-striking and 4.86 with his short game. He also wrapped up on the Korn Ferry Tour last season very well with a T11, a T6, and a withdrawal in the final event where he gained 9.87 strokes total. I will likely bet him to finish top 20 and top 40 this week, the latter one for sure at -140.
5 Players That I Won’t Bet
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000) – I bet him hard last week in his native country of Japan, but he let me down with a T40. There’s no way I’m going to be betting him this week but just you wait, he will finish top 5 and piss me off some more! I’ll be likely back on Matsuyama again in 2023 I’m sure, but it won’t be this week, I can assure you of that.
Webb Simpson (+15000) – What happened to Webb?! Over his last six starts he has four missed cuts, a withdrawal, and a T69 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. Something must be bothering Simpson or he’s just not putting in his work, either way, I’m off of him and don’t see myself betting him anymore going forward.
Justin Suh (+25000) – Last season’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship winner has three straight missed cuts and has been weak in all regards outside of being a bit better than average off the tee. I bet him right after his win but won’t be betting him again until he shows that he can hang with the pros on the PGA Tour.
John Huh (+40000) – Nothing much doing for Huh since his T2 at the Wyndham Championship in early August as he has two missed cuts, a withdrawal, a T73, and is coming off a T45 last week in Japan in a 78-player field. I’ve never really bet Huh and that trend will continue this week also.
Luke List (+15000) – This course commands accuracy so List certainly doesn’t seem like a good course fit as he’s long and erratic. He had five straight missed cuts, then a T73 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and is coming off a T29 in Japan last week. His ball-striking is good but his short game is downright awful and has been since late June.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
