The Fantasy Rookie Impact for 2020

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert, the sixth overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, joins the Chargers after four years as the starter for the Oregon Ducks. This experienced leader has the best arm strength in the class, has a great mechanical foundation, and is an underrated athlete.

I expect Herbert to be the starting quarterback for the Chargers within the first month of the 2020 NFL season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s leading the offense on Week 1. His top weapons, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are tailor-made for his ability to push the ball downfield and place the ball in positions for the wideout to go up and get it. Add in a balanced rushing attack and a talented tight end safety net in Hunter Henry and Herbert has all of the weapons he needs to succeed.

 If Herbert sees the field immediately, he has a similar upside as Burrow. If not, he is still worth a late-round dart throw, he will see significant playing time in 2020.

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

Edwards-Helaire broke out in 2019 with 1,414 rushing yards, 453 receiving yards, and 33 combined touchdowns for the national champion LSU Tigers. His elusiveness in space, consistent hands, explosiveness, and vision led to him going as the first running back off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft.

He fills an immediate need in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. He should see the majority of rushing attempts (at least 50%) in what is likely to be a quasi-running back by committee (RBBC) with Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson. Where Edwards-Helaire becomes a dangerous fantasy football option, though, is his contribution to the passing game. I expect him to pull in at least 50 receptions and find the endzone about five times just through the air. In total, we can expect him to be north of 1,000 total yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020.

The 2020 rookie running back class is talented, but Edwards-Helaire best combines talent and immediate opportunity, meaning he will waste no time being an immediate boost to your fantasy football roster. He should be considered a low-end top-12 running back option in 2020.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Swift has posted back-to-back seasons of at least 1,000 yards playing against the best defenses in the nation at the University of Georgia. Swift has the best college film of any back in the class; he is explosive with nearly uncatchable long-speed, is a craft runner that always finds a hole to burst through, and is a true pass-catching threat that, at times, was a primary receiving threat in the Bulldogs low-volume passing offense.

When the Lions drafted him at the top of the second round in the 2020 NFL Draft, it signaled that the thoughts of Kerryon Johnson being a bell-cow back have ended. Swift, though, should still see at least 50% of an offense that will make running the ball a priority to protect their aging quarterback coming off a season-ending injury. Don’t be surprised if Swift ends up with the most total yards of any rookie running back in 2020; the question will be the touchdown ceiling in the Detroit offense. Swift, though, should find a way to combine for double-digit touchdowns and be a fantasy football factor in 2020.

Swift is perhaps the best value at the running back position this season. His landing spot has left some with reservations, but savvy fantasy football players will recognize the volume and opportunity for Swift to make an immediate impact as a top-15 fantasy football running back is sitting right in front of them.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Akers, a former 5-star prospect, rushed for 2,875 yards and 27 touchdowns in three seasons at Florida State despite their poor offensive line and coaching turnover. Akers is a powerful and tenacious runner with great contact balance, the athleticism and change of direction ability to bounce through holes, and the acceleration to burn defensive backs.

Akers, once again, finds himself behind a less than ideal offensive line. He also finds himself as the lead back in a RBBC in one of the NFL’s top offenses. I expect Akers to break 1,000 rushing yards and find the endzone often in his rookie campaign. Henderson and Brown do not pose serious threats to his fantasy football potential.

The dynamic and powerful back should be considered a top-15 fantasy football running back in 2020. He will have the volume and red-zone opportunity necessary for a player to be a critical foundation of a championship fantasy football roster.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor has dominated college football over the past three seasons, rushing for a combined 6,174 yards and 50 touchdowns for the Wisconsin Badgers. He is a physical monster in between the tackles that possess great contact balance and fantastic vision. He also is an explosive back with tremendous straight-line acceleration.

His early second-round draft capital suggests that the Colts intend on using Taylor right away, but he will be splitting touches with both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. I still expect him to see more than 50% of the rushing work, which should be good for more than 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. His volume in the passing game, though, will likely be limited; which caps his upside in PPR formats.

 I expect Taylor to be a top-24 fantasy football running back in 2020. He provides a high floor with the upside that should make fantasy football players drool.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vaughn has been one of my favorite running back prospects for years. He posted two 1,000-yard seasons despite playing behind the worst offensive line in the SEC and facing the toughest defenses for the past two seasons. Vaughn also found the endzone 24 times in 2018 and 2019, an impressive number, given the inefficiency of the Commodores offense. He is a powerful runner that always finds a way forward, is elusive in even the tightest spots, and perhaps most importantly for his new team, is a great pass blocker.

He steps in a brand new Tampa Bay offense featuring Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, along with two of the most dynamic wideouts in the league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs will be a pass-first team, meaning Vaughn’s pass-blocking ability will earn him a lot of snaps. I also expect Vaughn to see at least 200 rushing attempts in 2020, which can get him close to the coveted 1,000 rushing yard benchmark. His ceiling, though, is limited by the anticipated lack of rushing touchdown opportunity. Vaughn also will be splitting volume with Ronald Jones.

Vaughn is a low-end top-24 running back option for fantasy football in 2020. His dynamic skillset, combined with a newly energized offense, gives him a high floor worth spending a draft pick on.

 Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson has been a staple of the LSU offense over the past two seasons, totaling 2,415 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns. He is a fluid wideout with sticky hands, quickness in the short field, and sharp footwork.

He steps into the best spot for immediate fantasy football production in this wide receiver class. He should immediately fill in for Diggs’ 100+ targets per season; creating a valuable floor for the sure-handed receiver. He should break 1,000 receiving yards in 2020, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads the team in receiving touchdowns.

Jefferson leads this wideout class in terms of 2020 fantasy football impact. He is a high-end WR2 option and could end up being the best value of this entire fantasy football season.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has been the foundation of the electric offense that led the Oklahoma Sooners to the College Football Playoff the past two seasons. He pulled in 32 touchdowns and 3,292 receiving yards in his three years at Oklahoma. His athleticism, contested-catch ability, sticky hands, blocking, and elusiveness in space make him the most talented wideout in this rookie class.

He jumps right into one of the most dangerous offensive units in the NFL, led by a top-5 quarterback in Dak Prescott. Lamb will likely play the big-slot role in Dallas and should see more than 100 targets as a rookie despite splitting volume with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Lamb has a high floor and the dynamic skillset to break off a touchdown at any time.

Lamb is a low-end top-24 wideout in 2020. He should see high volume and plenty of opportunities to score in an offense that will surely find themselves in the red zone often.

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders

Ruggs was an electric player for the Alabama Crimson Tide over the past two seasons. He averaged 17.5 yards per reception and caught 18 touchdowns; scoring on 18.5% of his receptions. His elite speed, consistent hands, great body control, and sharp route running are what led to him being the first wide receiver selected in the 2020 NFL Draft.

There are few knowns in Jon Gruden’s offense, which now also features Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards. What we can be confident in, though, is that they will make sure to get the ball in Ruggs’ hands. He should see just shy of 100 targets and each one of those is an opportunity to break off a huge play. Ruggs is the type of player that might only need six targets a game to make a fantasy football impact, although I expect him to see more than that.

Ruggs is a high-end top-36 wide receiver in 2020. It is hard to feel confident investing in such a fluid situation in Las Vegas, but savvy fantasy football players invest in upside whenever it presents itself.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Jeudy has been a consistent producer for The Crimson Tide over the past two seasons; racking up 2,478 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns since 2018. His is a route running technician and yards after catch threat that flashes consistent hands and subtle speed while tearing apart defenses.

He lands in a Denver offense that will be led by the young gunslinger, Drew Lock. There is sure to be a boost in passing volume this season, which means that Jeudy should still see around 100 targets despite splitting opportunity with Courtland Sutton and fellow rookie K.J. Hamler. Sutton, though, along with Melvin Gordon on the ground are more likely to be the ones racking up touchdowns for Denver in 2020.

Jeudy’s high catch rate in a high-volume passing offense makes him a low-end top-36 wide receiver in 2020, but his lack of touchdown potential pushes him down to a late-round fantasy football selection.

Tight Ends

The tight end landscape is always tough to project, but it becomes even more difficult when it comes to rookie production. The 2020 rookie class, overall, is weaker than what we saw in 2019, however, there is always upside. Here are a few tight ends that may be worth late-round flyers/waiver-wire priority in your 2020 fantasy football drafts.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Kmet is a pro-ready tight end that flashed good hands and better blocking at Notre Dame. The first tight end selected in the 2020 NFL Draft should find some role in the Bears offense regardless of who the quarterback is. If it is Nick Foles, however, he could become a reliable check-down option with some red-zone potential.

Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints

Trautman dominated undersized competition while playing for the FCS Dayton Flyers. He is a contested-catch monster, though, with great athleticism for his size. He finds himself in a great offense and could be a red-zone priority for Brees, but he will have to beat out Jared Cook who is coming off a good season with the Saints.

Brycen Hopkins, Los Angeles Rams

Hopkins, considered by many to be the top tight end prospect heading into 2019, is a great pass catcher that should get volume in the Rams high-volume passing offense. The Rams implemented more two-tight end sets down the stretch in 2019, which suggests that Hopkins could see action early opposite of Higbee.