As part of our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit here at FantasyData, we have created a custom strength of schedule projection model with in-depth analysis to help you in your quest for a championship title. Strength of schedule (SOS) is a tool I have used ever since I started playing fantasy as a part of draft preparation. This, along with personal rankings and ADP are cornerstones of conducting a solid draft. One of the best parts about using SOS is being able to compare two players you have ranked pretty much identically with similar ADPs to see which one might have a slight edge with an easier schedule, especially in the final quarter of the fantasy season (Weeks 13-16) when wins matter the most.
Method of Projection and Numbers to Know
There are a few different ways people project SOS for an upcoming fantasy season. The way I prefer to do this is by using a recent sample of the last two seasons’ fantasy points allowed ranks and points per game (PPG) allowed ranks. I compare these side-by-side to find an average that I am happy with and use that for the upcoming season to determine where a team could potentially rank against a position in fantasy points allowed. It’s a fairly simple method, but in doing this, I have found that most teams don’t have a drastic change in fantasy points allowed from one season to the next. To back that up, here are some key numbers worth knowing before we dive into this more:
When looking at the top of the ranks of teams who have given up the most fantasy points to RBs over the last two seasons, we see some pretty strong consistency within the top eight we have projected heading into this season. Only two of these teams moved more than 12 spots between the 2018-19 season. The Cardinals went from allowing the most fantasy points (25.3 PPG) in 2018 to 13th in 2019 at 19.6 PPG, a difference of 5.7 PPG. The Panthers made a huge jump in the opposite direction going from 26th in 2018 (16.2 PPG) to allowing the most overall in 2019 at 28.4 PPG, a difference of 12.2 PPG which was the biggest jump in the league across all positions. None of the other six teams inside the top eight moved more than 3.3 PPG between the last two seasons.
Comparing this to the teams that we have projected to give up the fewest fantasy points to RBs doesn’t show quite as strong consistency, though the teams in the bottom eight have almost entirely finished below average between the last two seasons. The only outlier here is the 49ers who ranked 13th in 2018 allowing 19.8 PPG to 30th in 2019 at just 12.5 PPG, a difference of 7.3 PPG. Five of the teams who are inside the bottom eight moved less than 4 PPG between the last two seasons.
To put this into perspective, the average amount of movement in points allowed ranks between the last two seasons is 9.2 spots and 3.8 PPG. Depending on where the team ranks though makes a difference between how many PPG they will actually move. For example, the Bengals have allowed the most PPG to RBs over the lasts two seasons on average at 23.6 PPG. If they were to move the average nine spots, that would put them at 20.4 PPG, a difference of 3.2 PPG. If the Jaguars who are ranked 9th at 20.4 PPG moved down nine spots to 18th, they would have allowed 18.4 PPG, a difference of just 2 PPG. So, the average swing from season-to-season is usually pretty marginal. Only nine teams in the league moved more than 12 spots between the last two seasons which for fantasy would mean a difference of enough points to change their caliber of points allowed from being worthy of an RB1 performance, RB2 performance, Flex, etc.
Now that we have gotten some of the technical stuff out of the way, let’s take a look at the best and worst schedules this season for team backfields!
Top Five Easiest Strength of Schedule for RB: Full Season
1. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers will undoubtedly have a new look on offense this season with the loss of both Philip Rivers under center and Melvin Gordon from the backfield. If the team decides a more run-heavy approach is the answer for the time being, they’re given the easiest SOS for their running backs to succeed. Their season opens up with three top-five matchups before a tougher three-game stretch. They then get three more plus matchups against teams projected to be in the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed before their bye. The schedule toughens up after their bye and through the back half of the season with just a Week 15 matchup on the road against the Raiders looking attractive in the heart of the fantasy playoffs. The Week 14 matchup against the Falcons could also be a little better than expected as they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs in 2018 at 22.8 PPG before improving to 21st in 2019 at just 17.1 PPG. This backfield could help you labor through the early parts of the season, but you may want to look for an RB with a softer SOS over the back half of the season to pair with them just to be safe.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots are another team who will have a new look on offense this season as they waved goodbye to phenom, Tom Brady. Though they have traditionally used a maddening committee out of their backfield in recent years, their SOS makes each of their backfield options slightly more intriguing. It’s also easy to draw up a narrative that the team may want to run more than ever given their uncertain quarterback situation. We have had some lively debates in a group chat full of analysts regarding whether or not we see Sony Michel as a bust, and I personally believe that if he can stay healthy, he could be looking at a breakout this season. We get a pretty light start to their season with just the road game against Seattle being a potentially tough spot for this backfield to succeed. You get a tough stretch between Weeks 7-11 also where just the Bills are an average-at-best matchup. This could be a note worth remembering if you don’t draft one of the Pats RB as it could present a buy-low window before their schedule lightens up again just in time for a playoff push.
3. New York Jets
It’s particularly interesting to see that the Jets backfield has one of the easiest strength of schedules this season given that both Sam Darnold and the Jets receiver corps both have schedules that rank in the bottom five. This team was all out of sorts last season between Darnold missing parts of the season with an injury and Le’Veon Bell looking like a shell of his former self. Depending on where you could land Bell in drafts, he could wind up a decent value pick when looking at his schedule. Things don’t start out easy with the Bills being their only average matchup through the first quarter. This could be a good spot to buy low here as six of their next eight matchups will be against teams who could allow RB1 caliber production to their opponents this season. Their stretch run through the fantasy playoffs isn’t bad either as their opponents between Weeks 13-16 rank 12th in average points allowed which could also put you at back-end RB1 status. Luckily for the Jets, they only face the Patriots once during the traditional fantasy season in 2020.
4. Denver Broncos
It’s unfortunate that we have something of a messy committee looking to form out of the Denver backfield as their schedule would be really enticing had there been a clear-cut lead back here. Perhaps a hot hand can prove their worth over the first five games as the team has an absolutely ugly start to the season when it comes to points allowed to RBs. There are only two matchups before the halfway point of the season where you’re probably going to feel super comfortable starting any of the RBs here. As we’ve been looking at, this could be a marker to remember for a buy-low point in their season. The backfield could easily get back on track in the second half with five of their last eight matchups being against teams who could allow RB1-caliber production.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It seems like every season we get amped about the potential of the Bucs backfield based on various circumstances whether it be new players, coaches, or a cupcake schedule. This season is no different as we can check the boxes for the team welcoming new players and an easy schedule for RBs. Peyton Barber is no longer in the mix but those hanging on to a shred of hope for Ronald Jones to succeed can keep their dreams alive for at least one more season. The team also drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn as a potential threat to carry the load and still have underrated pass catcher Dare Ogunbowale in the mix behind their new QB, Tom Brady. The Bucs only have three matchups this season against teams who rank inside the bottom five with two of those being against the Saints. Other than that, you get a lot of average matchups with some above-average potential mixed in. You get seven matchups against teams inside the top 12 for most points allowed that could give up RB1-caliber production. Aside from getting an inconvenient Week 13 bye, the playoffs aren’t too rough either outside of that matchup against the Vikings in Week 14, but at least it’s at home in Tampa.
Remaining Backfields with Above-Average SOS:
- Las Vegas Raiders: Avg. PA Rank – 15
- New Orleans Saints: Avg. PA Rank – 15
- Miami Dolphins: Avg. PA Rank – 15.1
- Carolina Panthers: Avg. PA Rank – 15.9
Top Five Toughest Strength of Schedule for RB: Full Season
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags don’t really have it easy anywhere this season when it comes to SOS as Gardner Minshew, their backfield, and their WR corps all have schedules inside the bottom eight. At running back, however, we still get some green sprinkled into our sheet here. You get four matchups through their first seven games where we could see some RB1 potential based on the matchup. The back half of the season starts fairly generous as well with only Houston and Pittsburgh being potentially tougher matchups. Houston could actually wind up being easier than this rank as well as they gave up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs just last season at 20.3 PPG. Whoever is leading the Jags backfield right around the time that we usually see the trade deadline in redraft leagues around Week 12 could be a good player to sell high on as this team has one of the toughest schedules where it really counts between Weeks 13-16. We’ll discuss that more below.
29. Cleveland Browns
It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not the Browns will be able to recover from the nightmare season they had just a year ago after they were being hyped as a potential team to make a run for the Super Bowl. Their backfield presents a few unique challenges heading into the season with a dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt leading the way. The downside here is that both backs eat into the true potential of either being a stud ball carrier and now they’ll also be fighting one of the tougher schedules in the league for RBs as well. The first half of their season really sets up some boom/bust potential as their matchups are either really good with four inside the top 10 or really bad with four inside the bottom 10. The back half isn’t much better with just the Week 12 matchup against the Jags being one that could allow RB1 production. A daunting Week 14 matchup against the Ravens stares you in the eyes at the start of the traditional fantasy playoffs as well and three of their four games between Weeks 13-16 being on the road is less than ideal. If we get some movement in player personnel in the backfield, for example, Kareem Hunt is traded, then this could potentially be a schedule that is tolerable for Nick Chubb if he were given a bell-cow workload. But if we’re looking at a committee and an offense that isn’t capable of taking that necessary step forward overall, this could be a problem.
30. New York Giants
When you have a running back like Saquon Barkley, you don’t really let a projected strength of schedule deter you much from drafting him super early. But you really would prefer he didn’t have the third-toughest schedule for RBs this season. The first three games all pose a problem from the get-go with the Steelers, Bears, and 49ers all being staunch run defenses. I guess the silver lining here could be that two of those games will be at home for the Giants. Up until the team’s Week 11 bye, the only two matchups we see against a team that ranks inside the top 12 are two games against their division rivals, the Washington Redskins. If you’re able to weather the storm through those first 11 weeks, you will be gifted with the Bengals generous run defense in Week 12 who have allowed a league-high 23.6 PPG to RBs over the last two years on average. Saquon will also come home to generous matchups in the heart of the fantasy playoffs against the Cardinals in Week 14 (3rd, 22.45 PPG) and Browns (8th, 20.75 PPG). You then get stuck with an absolutely awful matchup for the championship round on the road against the Ravens in Week 16 (31st, 14.55 PPG).
31. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are another team who don’t really have any favors coming their way in the form of an easy schedule. Joe Burrow, their RBs, and WRs all have schedules that rank inside the bottom eight. Joe Mixon was absolutely dreadful for most of the season last year but decided to show some life with over 150 total yards in three of his last four games, two of which were against the Browns. We could see some tough sledding from this backfield once again as they’re given the second-toughest SOS for RBs. Similar to what we saw with the Browns RBs, half of the Bengals matchups through the first eight games are against opponents who rank inside the top 10 for most points allowed and the other half rank inside the bottom 10. The back half of the season starts off rough on the road in Pittsburgh. Over the last two seasons, Mixon has averaged 12.1 PPG against them. The Bengals get three solid matchups before a string of tougher opponents through the bulk of the fantasy playoffs.
32. Green Bay Packers
The vibe around the Packers just keeps getting worse through the offseason/preseason. First, they have an absolutely dreadful draft where they insulted Aaron Rodgers by drafting a QB early and giving him literally nothing in the way of weapons. Then they use their second-round pick to take RB A.J. Dillon, adding more frustration to a backfield that saw Aaron Jones dominate last season. And now, we see that their RBs are also given the toughest SOS in the league. They only get five matchups this season against teams who are projected to be above average in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Luckily for them, three of their four matchups against teams that rank inside the top 10 for most points allowed will be at home. You also get two of their best matchups of the season in Weeks 14 and 15 during the fantasy playoffs. So, there could still be some hope for solid starts here and there. If your team looks strong heading into the playoffs, I would even try and pull off a trade around Week 12 for Aaron Jones if he’s underperformed up to that point as those Week 14 and 15 matchups could be really valuable.
Remaining Backfields with Below-Average SOS:
- Houston Texans: Avg. PA Rank – 17.9
- Detroit Lions: Avg. PA Rank – 17.8
- Los Angeles Rams: Avg PA Rank – 17.6
- Minnesota Vikings: Avg PA Rank – 17.6
- Tennessee Titans: Avg PA Rank – 17.3
Best Backfields for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Denver Broncos
By this point in the fantasy season, we should have a pretty good idea of what this backfield looks like as far as week-to-week production. If this SOS stands fairly well, you’re looking at a smash spot for Broncos RBs to help carry you to a championship. The only downside of these great matchups is that three-of-four are on the road. Carolina is a matchup we could see change drastically here as they made that wild jump from ranking 26th in points allowed in 2018 to allowing the most points in 2019.
2. Tennessee Titans
I would take this schedule over that of the Broncos all day. First of all, you’ll feel a lot more confident in Derrick Henry carrying the load here. Second, all four of these teams are trending towards allowing more points between the last two seasons as well. We saw King Henry carry teams last season and this schedule sets him up to do that again.
3. Miami Dolphins
There’s loads of sleeper potential in the Dolphins backfield this season with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida set up to likely form something of a committee. They get three home games in a row to kick off this important stretch of the fantasy season with only that matchup against the Pats looking like a tough spot. We really don’t know what the Pats are going to look like on either side of the ball this season though with the overhauls we have seen in personnel and the team has also randomly struggled to beat the Phins in Miami.
Worst Backfields for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ RBs have a pretty average schedule overall this season ranking 16th in the league. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, they get easily the worst stretch of games they will see all season over the course of the all-important fantasy playoffs. Not only are these all pretty poor matchups, but three of them also happen to be on the road, and three of them also have the potential of some really crappy weather. The Bills have some really intriguing potential on offense this season for fantasy purposes at a decent value, but they may be useless to you come the end of the season.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
We saw that the Jags RBs have one of the worst schedules overall this season, and this final quarter here is a big reason why. Of these matchups, one where I could see Leonard Fournette specifically have some success in is Week 14 vs. Tennessee. He rumbled for 159 total yards and two TDs against them in Week 12 last season on his way to 36.9 fantasy points and on overall RB1 finish that week. There’s not much to like about the rest of the matchups here though.
3. Minnesota Vikings
There’s a pretty decent drop off in these schedules between the Bills and Jags and the Vikings. The Vikes schedule will progressively get tougher over the final quarter of the fantasy season just as the matchups get progressively more important to you cashing in on a championship. The Week 13 matchup against the Jags is a welcome sight, but finishing it off with a worst-case scenario matchup against the Saints and in New Orleans no less, is not what you want in your lineup. The Saints have allowed just 13.9 PPG to RBs over the last two seasons on average.
