Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour remains in Florida for the third of four consecutive tournaments, and this is the granddaddy with THE PLAYERS Championship on tap this week. This event has been played since 1974 when it was originally named the Tournament Players Championship, but it has been known as just THE PLAYERS Championship since 1988. We have 144 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 on Friday will play round 3 and round 4 on the weekend.
There’s a record-setting $20M available to be won this week, the winner banks an incredible $3.6M and also collects 600 FedEx Cup points. TPC at Sawgrass – Stadium Course is 7,256 yards in length, is a par 72, and the tiny greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten editions is -13.7, so this track presents lots of challenges. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid off the tee, strong on approach, excellent from tee to green, accurate off the tee blocks, and can get up and down from around the greens.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding THE PLAYERS Championship this week:
1. Which five players have gained the most strokes total in 2022? Patrick Cantlay, Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Viktor Hovland are a dead tie for 5th.
2. How should I deal with the soggy weather this week? There is expected to be a ton of rain throughout round 1, round 2, and round 3, and very windy on Saturday, as well. The longer hitters tend to benefit when the wet stuff is coming down, so Rory McIlroy and others who got the distance are especially valuable this week.
3. Can I bet 10 players outright? You could in theory, and it’s tempting since the quality of this field is outstanding, but sticking to three outright wagers and a bunch of hedging is likely the way to go.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+1000) – Rahm is another long hitter who I like as a betting target more so than a DFS play this week as he regularly finishes high but hasn’t won since last June’s U.S. Open. If his short game is just average this week, then he will be firmly in the mix to win as he gained an insane 11.42 strokes ball-striking last week at the API but lost 5.24 strokes between his putting and around the green play. He has a T9 and a T12 over the last two editions of THE PLAYERS, and I believe he will earn another top 10 this week but you can bet him to win or to finish top 5 since all of the potential in the world is there for a super-elite finish on any given week.
Avoid: Xander Schauffele (+2500) – He had a T2 here in 2018 but has missed the cut in the two most recent editions and just can’t seem to figure out the greens here as he has lost at least 1.23 strokes with the flat stick in each of his three appearances. He has been playing well lately, so he could have a huge week, but those missed cuts here and strong competition at the top has me a bit gun shy of Schauffele this week.
+2600 to +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000) – Fitzpatrick is on quite the roll right now with five straight top 12’s and he’s consistently gaining strokes across the board, so these results are very sustainable. Add to it that he finished T9 here a year ago gaining 8.51 strokes total. Betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 this week is a smart move, it’s just up to you on how aggressive you want to get, or bet both outcomes and have even more fun.
Daniel Berger (+3000) – I believe that Berger winning THE PLAYERS in his home state of Florida would be as exciting for him as any major victory, and I’m pulling for him to get the job done. He has two T9’s here since 2016 including one from last year where he was excellent in every facet of the game except for a mild 0.72 loss on the greens. If his back injuries are behind him now and I believe they are as he looked rock-solid in his most recent start at The Honda Classic finishing T4 and gaining strokes across the board, and he has five top 20’s over his last six starts. A top 10 wager is the most obvious play here, or you could venture into top 5 territory if you want to kick it up a notch.
Avoid: Dustin Johnson (+3500) – I think that Johnson will have an alright week but I need more from DJ if I’m going to bet him. He missed the cut in his most recent start at The Genesis Invitational and he needs to work on every part of his game since he hasn’t gained strokes across all major stat categories since last August. He has a respectable record at THE PLAYERS, but just one top 10 since 2008.
+5100 to +10000
Billy Horschel (+5500) – He has been ripping it up over his last four starts with all finishes in the top 16, and he’s coming off a T2 last week at the API where every club in his bag was on point. His finishes at this venue have been fine, his best coming in 2015 when he earned a T13, but I think he has more to give and could jump into the top 10 this week. I think a top 20 bet works well for Billy-Ho this week, or you could sneak in a top 10 wager if you believe he can put on a repeat performance from last week.
Jason Kokrak (+9000) – It took a few years before Kokrak figured out this course, but it all came together last year when he took home a T9 on the back of strong ball-striking and putting. He’s won two times since last May, has back-to-back T26’s, and will have a big week if he can regain his ball-striking form. I would be comfortable betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 this week, but I can also understand if you want to leave the big man on the sidelines.
Avoid: Russell Henley (+5500) – Henley is such a great approach player, so it’s surprising that he has missed the cut here in three straight editions, and four out of the last five he has failed to reach the weekend. He hasn’t missed a cut line since last July and could have a nice payday this week, but something is amiss for him at this course and I just can’t get behind him.
+11000 and higher
Keegan Bradley (+13000) – He’s such a solid ball-striker and his putter was really good last week gaining 3.65 strokes which was his best putting performance since July 2020. If his flat stick remains hot and his usual approach and off the tee play shows up, then I expect another good performance this week. He has three top 26’s in his last five starts including a T11 last week at the API, and he’s 5/5 here since 2016 with a T7 happening in 2018 thanks to incredible approach play gaining 6.5 strokes on the field. Betting Bradley to finish top 20 or top 30 this week is a smooth move in my books.
Cameron Young (+13000) – Young may be young but he’s got swagger and is playing lights-out golf right now with two T2’s over his last ten starts and has five straight top 26’s gaining anywhere from 3.63 to 9.87 strokes ball-striking during the stretch. He doesn’t have any experience at this event, of course, but finished T2 at The Genesis Invitational late last month in an elite field, and could really make a name for himself this week. I like him as a top 20 or top 30 bet this week, but if you want to make a statement then go all in on a top 10 wager.
Avoid: Harold Varner III (+18000) – HV3 won at the Saudi International a month or so ago, but is coming off of two nasty missed cuts including in his most recent start at The Genesis Invitational where he lost 8.17 strokes ball-striking. He has a T61 and a missed cut here since 2019, and unless he has sorted out his golf game since The Genesis, he will be staring down another mediocre finish this week, as well.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
