Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour moves on from the Masters Tournament in Georgia to the RBC Heritage in South Carolina – an event that has been live since 1969 when Arnold Palmer won the first edition. We have just 132 players competing this week and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will advance to play round 3 and round 4.
There’s $8M to be won this week, the winner receives $1.44M and also pulls down 500 FedEx Cup points. Harbour Town Golf Links is 7,121 yards long, is a par 71, and the tiny greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last decade is -13.9, but the all-time record came just two years ago when Webb Simpson stroked a -22. Place bets on golfers this week who are strong on approach, solid tee to green, keep the ball in the fairways off the tee blocks, do well off the tee, and can get up and down around the greens since they are hard to hit.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions about the RBC Heritage this week:
1. Which 10 players does your custom model like best? I just ran my first custom model of the week, and the top ten players, in order, are Corey Conners, Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, and Alex Noren.
2. Which players have the most top 10’s here over the last five years? The top 10 monsters here since 2017 include Patrick Cantlay with 3, Webb Simpson with 3, and a few players have 2 including Shane Lowry, Ian Poulter, Kevin Streelman, J.T. Poston, and Michael Thompson.
3. Which players have gained the most strokes total? Over the last 24 rounds, the players who have gained the most strokes total are Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann, Alex Noren, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, and Adam Hadwin.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Collin Morikawa (+1200) – Morikawa is starting to get dialed in again as he has finished 9th and 5th over his last two starts, and the top 5 came at the Masters last week where he gained strokes across the board including 6.85 ball-striking. He had an impressive T7 here a year ago and what’s best about it is that he gained 10.37 strokes ball-striking. If his putter shows up this week, even if he’s field average, then he will be right in contention as he lost 2.48 strokes with the flat stick last year and still finished inside the top 10. You can bet him as aggressively as you’d like to this week as he’s a major threat to win.
Shane Lowry (+1800) – He has been very consistent and popping here and there recently too with three top 9’s in his last nine starts and he has finished no worse than T24 during that stretch aside from his 35th at the match play event, but that’s a different kind of beast compared to stroke play. He has two top 9’s here over the last three years including a T3 in 2019 when every part of his game was on point. You can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 this week depending on how much risk and reward you’re up for.
Avoid: Russell Henley (+2200) – I actually like all of the options in this betting range, but I’ll pick on Henley since he doesn’t have a top 10 since January and he has missed the cut twice here in the last three years. He had a huge approach game last year gaining 8.76 strokes and finished T9 and he could do it all over again, but there are better plays around him in my opinion.
+2600 to +5000
Webb Simpson (+3500) – This is absolutely a Webb track as he won here two years ago, was T9 a year ago, had a runner-up in 2013, and has eight top 16’s here since 2010. His finishes lately are only a bit better than average and his stats aren’t too appetizing, but he almost always gets up for the shorter tracks and this is one of them. I think betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 is ideal this week.
Alex Noren (+5000) – Noren has two top 6’s in his last six starts and has four top 18’s during that same stretch thanks to a strong tee to green game. He has finished anywhere from T21 to T28 here over the last three years, so it makes a lot of sense to bet him to finish top 20 and/or top 30 this week.
Avoid: Jordan Spieth (+4000) – Spieth had a runner-up at Pebble Beach in February, so everyone was thinking that he was getting his game back together, but that hasn’t been the case as his best finish since then is a T26, he has two cuts including last week’s Masters where he had never missed the cut prior, and his stats aren’t Jordan-esque, especially on the greens where he keeps bleeding strokes. He will likely get his mojo going again, but don’t expect it to happen this week.
+5100 to +10000
Maverick McNealy (+5500) – He has nine top 35’s in his last eleven starts including a T7 at The Genesis Invitational in a very strong field. He finished T4 here last year thanks to gaining strokes across the board, and I can see him doing something similar again if his putter heats up. You can bet him to finish anywhere from top 5 to top 30 depending on your comfort level with McNealy this week.
Kevin Streelman (+10000) – Streelman has four top 22’s in his last five starts and has a fairly solid game in every stat category, especially off the tee and with his short game. He has played here fairly regularly over the years and has put up some great results including two top 7’s in the last four years. I think betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 is the way to go, but you could make your way into top 10 territory if you think he will add his third in the last half-decade.
Avoid: Cameron Tringale (+10000) – He has hit a bit of a wall lately with three missed cuts over his last six starts and it mostly has to do with a weak off the tee and short game. He hasn’t competed here since 2015 and hasn’t made the cut in three starts, and there’s a decent possibility that he will be packing his golf bag up on Friday and heading home.
+11000 and higher
Nate Lashley (+18000) – It’s hard to find consistently results from players in this range, but I like what Lashley has been selling over his last three starts with three straight top 27’s including a T7 at the Puerto Rico Open and a T18 in his most recent start at the Texas Open where he gained 6.05 strokes on approach. Betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 is fine by me, just don’t plop down a pile of cash.
Lucas Glover (+15000) – Glover has been regularly finishing in the 30-somethings lately with five in his last ten starts and he had a T5 at the Sony Open earlier this year when he gained an insane 9.55 strokes on approach. He has finished no worse than T33 here six times in the last seven years and seems poised to do it again. Look for a bet in the top 20 to top 40 range this week depending on how much risk and reward you’re willing to take on.
Avoid: Mackenzie Hughes (+13000) – I could have easily recommended not betting some sap golfer here, but went with Hughes since most of us know who he is. His best finish here in four starts is a T52 and he hasn’t been very good yet in 2022 with four missed cut lines in eight starts, and his best finish during this time span is a T16 which came at Pebble Beach thanks to gaining 6.40 strokes on the greens and didn’t do much else that week. He will find his rhythm again at some point, but I doubt he will this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
