Hot and Cold Hitters
With about a week of fantasy baseball in the books, we’ll focus on hitters. Since we’re dealing with uber small samples, take the data with a grain of salt. In future articles, we’ll likely look at hot and cold hitters and pitchers to decide whether we should drop or remain patient with these players. Fantasy baseball is a 26-27 week long season, which creates a daily and weekly grind. Each week, we’ll look at the recent data and break down any fantasy-relevant takeaways to project what to do moving forward.
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Hot Hitters
Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)
When a hitter posts a 5-for-5 day in their third major league game, that’ll put them on the map. Steven Kwan batted seventh on Opening Day, then quickly moved up to second in the lineup behind Myles Straw. At Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, Kwan slashed .328/.407/.527 with a .335 BABIP due to a line drive of 25-26%.
The Prospects Live scouting reports noted Kwan’s elite contact skills of 92% in the minors, which would’ve been almost 15% above the MLB league averages. However, the questions surround the power given the contact-based profile. Throughout two levels in 2021, Kwan compiled 12 home runs and six stolen bases in 341 plate appearances. Although Kwan might not possess the power for 25+ home runs, he boasts the bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline to translate into double-digit home runs.
After fouling off four straight pitches, Steven Kwan gets another hit!
The @CleGuardians rook is now batting .714 with a 1.773 OPS … AND ZERO SWINGING STRIKES. pic.twitter.com/c8Q3a6GtAC
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 12, 2022
So far, the scouting reports aligned with the early season results, evidenced by the triple slash of .667/.750/.933 with zero strikeouts and seven walks (26.3% BB%). Kwan rocks a 100% Z-Contact% and Contact%, plus an elite 20.9% O-Swing%. It’s a small sample, but Kwan’s 6.3% Barrel% (one barrel) and 103 mph maximum exit velocity look mediocre to below-average. Given the bat-to-ball skills and elite plate discipline, Kwan should accumulate double-digit home runs with a ton of runs.
Takeaways
In leagues with five outfielder spots, Kwan is a must-add player. As one of the hottest hitters to begin the season, Kwan likely isn’t available in most formats. In leagues with only three outfield spots, Kwan might be a borderline hitter to add. Regardless, Kwan warrants our attention, especially if he continues to hit towards the top of the Cleveland lineup for batting average and on-base skills. It’s hard not to love the hitting profile for Kwan to provide excitement with a game full of home runs and strikeouts.
Jeff McNeil (2B/OF – NYM)
Speaking of batting average and on-base skills, Jeff McNeil fits that profile too. Unfortunately, McNeil hasn’t lived up to the juiced ball expectations from 2019 with 23 home runs and five stolen bases with a .318 batting average. Since then, McNeil compiled 11 home runs in 2020 and 2021 with a .271 batting average. McNeil peaked at a 4.8% Barrel% in 2019, which ranked in the 21st-percentile, plus a mediocre maximum exit velocity of 107.2 mph (51st-percentile).
Throughout McNeil’s career, he posted higher BABIPs of .335 or above from 2018 to 2020. Then that dipped to .280 in 2021, which led to a career-low .251 batting average. McNeil rocks a quality 21.8% LD% in his career with a contact-based profile, evidenced by the career 89.6% Z-Contact% and 83.3% Contact%.
McNeil batted eighth in four out of five games to start the season. Since we’re jumping on small samples, McNeil’s early numbers fall into the hot hitter’s group with a .368 batting average, 9.5% walk rate, and 14.3% strikeout rate. Like Kwan, McNeil rocks an elite 22.2% O-Swing%, which likely won’t stick given the career O-Swing% of 37.6%.
Takeaways
The lineup spot isn’t great for McNeil, but the lineup context projects above-average with Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso up top. Ideally, the McNeil-type profile sits atop a lineup to accumulate runs, plus a quality batting average and OBP. However, Brandon Nimmo occupies that spot, though Nimmo has dealt with his share of injuries in the past. Unfortunately, McNeil lacks much upside, given his profile. Ride McNeil’s heater in most league formats, especially for batting average and OBP.
Cold Hitters
Jo Adell (OF – LAA)
As the 2017 first-round pick by the Angels, Jo Adell struggled in his first 272 plate appearances in the majors with seven home runs, two stolen bases, and a .205 batting average. The 5.5% walk rate and 32% strikeout rate align with the plate discipline concerns.
In 2020 and 2021, Adell had a 37.8% O-Swing%, 73.1% Z-Contact%, and 66.8% Contact%. With Adell chasing 6-7% more than the league average and struggling to make contact, it indicates the contact quality needs to remain high. Towards the end of the 2021 season, Adell’s zone contact rates increased from late August. Unsurprisingly, Adell has a 68.2% Z-Contact% and 51.4% Contact% with the early struggles in 2022.
So far, Adell’s 7.1% Barrel% sat near the league average. The raw power isn’t in question, with a 113.4 mph maximum exit velocity (89th-percentile) in 2021, although we’re hoping for consistency. It’s a small sample, but Adell’s hard-hit rate rose towards the end of 2021, like the zone contact rates.
Through five games, Adell has a .133 batting average and .533 OPS. Adell walked zero times yet struck out nine (60% strikeout rate). Initially, Adell wasn’t in the Angels lineup on Monday but then slotted in because Mike Trout had a stomach bug. A minor note to file away before we discuss the recent success.
Against the Marlins on Monday, Adell crushed a four-seamer from Elieser Hernandez down the middle at 90 mph. In the next at-bat, Adell watched a called strike slider for his first strikeout of the game. Then in Adell’s final at-bat, he smoked a double on a slider from Shawn Armstrong. Monitor how Adell fares against non-fastballs, as he struggled in a couple of plate appearances over the weekend against the slider.
Takeaways
The Angels plan to platoon Adell early on, but we figured Adell and Brandon Marsh would garner full-time playing time with Justin Upton DFA’d. Hopefully, Adell beats out Jose Rojas, who erupted for 31 home runs and 208 runs plus RBI in 2019 at Triple-A. Although we focused on Adell’s struggles against non-fastballs, it seems logical for the Angels to let Adell learn and develop via consistent repetitions and at-bats. Don’t cut Adell in any league format because the upside is tremendous. In dynasty, toss out some offers or reach out to the manager with Adell and see how they’re feeling. Adell also might be worth tossing in a DFS lineup if it’s a lefty that struggles with home runs.
Marcus Semien (2B/SS – TEX)
In three straight full seasons (2018, 2019, and 2021), Marcus Semien logged an average of 724 plate appearances. During those three years, Semien posted an average of 31 home runs, 109 runs, 88 RBI, and 13 stolen bases. Semien not only accumulated the stats due to health, but he also batted towards the top of the lineups that added to the counting stat totals. Only Whit Merrifield logged more plate appearances (2,427) since 2018, with Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Carlos Santana rounding out the top five behind Semien.
With Texas, Semien is still batting first or second with an underrated lineup of Corey Seager, Mitch Garver, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis García. The counting stats should remain high, assuming Semien stays healthy and productive.
Through 23 plate appearances, Semien has two hits, including one double and zero barrels in 14 batted ball events. That comes with five strikeouts (21.7%) and one walk (4.3%) in the small sample. Given the lengthy track record, don’t panic on Semien. With hitters, it’s easier to have patience, particularly with those that play nearly every day. Outside of Semien’s pull-heavy, flyball approach, it’s hard to poke holes in Semien’s profile with the quality plate discipline.
Regardless, Semien used that approach to tap into the peak 9.8% Barrel% (63rd-percentile) and 41.3% Hard-Hit% (52nd-percentile) in 2021. Although Semien doesn’t light up the Statcast metrics, he should compile another quality season for the Rangers.
Takeaways
Due to the longer track record, it’s easier to stomach the early-season struggles from Semien versus Adell’s lows. Even if you’re not a Semien believer, his three-year stretch of 700+ plate appearances with quality results means we’ll likely forget the early season struggles soon. Baseball is a long season with ups and downs, and hopefully, we have more ups than downs.
