DFS Golf Picks: The Wells Fargo Championship
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Wells Fargo Championship, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you!
The Wells Fargo Championship
Preview for the Wells Fargo Championship: This event has been on the PGA Tour since 2003 when it was originally named the Wachovia Championship, but it has been the Wells Fargo Championship since 2011. This will be the first time that we have seen the tournament played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm though – a course that was last used on the PGA Tour in 2018 for the Quicken Loans National. Rory McIlroy has won this event three times, and has the all-time record for it when he shot a -21 in 2015 at the usual venue – the Quail Hollow Club. Quail Hollow hosts the Presidents Cup in September, so a different course is being used this year. Winners of the Wells Fargo Championship over the last five editions include Rory McIlroy in 2021, the 2020 edition was canceled due to the pandemic, Max Homa in 2019, Jason Day in 2018, Brian Harman in 2017, and James Hahn in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is 9M, the winner collects $1.62M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is 7,160 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass and average almost 4,300 square feet – which is small by PGA Tour standards. The winning score here at this tournament over the last ten editions ranges from -8 to -21, but that was on a different course. When this course was played on the PGA Tour in 2017 and 2018, the winning scores were -7 and -21, so who knows what the winning score might look like this week. Some core key stats to focus on this week are, in order, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: approach, and strokes gained: total.
The field: We have a full field with 156 players in action this week, and the field is fairly good-looking as per usual. We will see defending champ, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Corey Conners, and other talented golfers, as well. The top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will play rounds 3 and 4. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the Wells Fargo Championship:
1. Is this tournament more unpredictable than normal this week? It is because we are on a course that most players haven’t seen since the Quicken Loans National events in 2017 and 2018 when this course was used for that tournament. So if you’re a course history type of DFS user, be sure to check out the data from those events – read the answer to the question below to get the ball rolling.
2. Which 10 players gained the most strokes total on this course in 2017 and 2018? Francesco Molinari (4 rounds), Ryan Armour (4 rounds), Abraham Ancer (4 rounds), Sung Kang (8 rounds), Beau Hossler (4 rounds), Ben Martin (4 rounds), Keegan Bradley (4 rounds), Rickie Fowler (8 rounds), Chesson Hadley (4 rounds), and Marc Leishman (8 rounds).
3. Which 10 golfers have gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Sepp Straka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Cameron Young, Keegan Bradley, Paul Casey, Max Homa, and Gary Woodland.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: We have talent at the top and decent depth in the field as well, so you can go with a stars and scrubs or a hybrid approach for your GPPs this week. Be sure to see how the projected ownership looks on Wednesday and look for pivot plays where possible, and as always, leave a bunch of money on the table in the large GPPs if you’re after a clean 1st prize win.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K) – McIlroy has won this tournament three times in his career – too bad for him that they are on a different course than his beloved Quail Hollow this year. He won last October and has lots of glossy finishes lately as per usual including his runner-up at the Masters in his most recent competition. He has lost strokes putting in his last four starts, but the rest of his game is in fine form and he should fare quite well this week in Maryland. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won, 2019 – T8, and 2018 – T16.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – He’s one of the very best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, he just needs to solve his short game woes to win on a more consistent basis. He did gain 5.63 strokes with his short game at the Masters two starts ago when he finished 6th, so there’s hope for him yet. He consistently finishes in the teens, 20’s, and has two top 6’s in his last four starts including that high finish at Augusta and he beat Dustin Johnson at the match play event to finish 3rd. Expect another high finish this week, and he could threaten to win if his putter cooperates. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T43 and 2018 – T42.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – Fitzpatrick was cruising along until he missed the cut in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, but prior he had six top 10’s in thirteen starts including winning on the European Tour. He plays a well-balanced game, so his results are usually quite good and consistent. This course should be a great fit for him – expect a top 15 finish but he has upside to finish top 5. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
The $9K Range
Gary Woodland (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – With three top 8’s and two other top 24’s in his last seven starts, he’s clearly got his health and game back. His approach game is solid, he’s been great off the tee over his last two starts, and his short game isn’t half-bad either. I expect Woodland to do well this week and pay off his salary number, and that’s all you can ask for. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T5, 2019 – Withdraw, and 2018 – Cut.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – He has cooled a bit over his last three starts, but did have a 9th four starts ago at the match play event and prior to that he had five top 9’s in seven starts between the PGA Tour and European Tour. Hatton’s stats aren’t super impressive, but he’s a great putter and finds ways to finish high on a fairly regular basis no matter where in the world he’s playing. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T42.
Keegan Bradley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – Bradley is rolling along very well right now with three top 8’s over his last three starts including a 5th at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained an insane 10.15 strokes ball-striking. He also had a T5 on this course in 2017 at the Quicken Loans National, so everything lines up well for him to do lots of damage again this week. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – 76th.
The $8K Range
Max Homa (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – He has been ball-striking like crazy lately and just needs to get his short game back on track to consistently finish in the top 10. He should be good for a top 25 finish this week, especially if his putter gets back on track the way it was six starts ago at The Genesis Invitational when he finished T10 and gained 3.17 strokes putting. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – Won, and 2017 – Cut.
Cameron Young (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – The up-and-comer already has three top 3’s this season including a T3 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage where he pretty much gained strokes across the board except for a modest 0.89 loss on putting. He’s an incredible off the tee player and very strong around the greens as well, and he’s poised to continue doing well this season and beyond. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – You may remember his impressive 3rd place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship in mid-May as he was so strong on approach and with his putter. This track seems like a good fit for his strong ball-striking skills, and I like him a lot as a mid-tier option this week. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T4, 2018 – T5, and 2017 – T12.
The $7K Range
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Mitchell has seven top 13’s in his last thirteen starts and he has been strong in all facets of the game, so his results aren’t overly surprising. As long as everything stays on track, then I think we can expect another top 20 this week and he has top 10 upside, as well. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T3, 2019 – T8, and 2018 – T34.
Matt Kuchar (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He relies quite heavily on his short game now as he ages, but this track is ideal for him as it’s not very long and his chipping and putting will carry him throughout the week. Kuchar has a T2 and a T3 over his last two starts, and as long as his short game holds up, he should have another good finish this week – just don’t expect a third consecutive top 3 finish. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Brandon Wu (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Wu was really struggling with seven straight missed cuts, but he has found something over his last five starts as he has a T2, a T3, and three other finishes between 21st and T33. His approach and putting game have been fantastic as of late, and I really like seeing these two elements from players as it usually means high finishes. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
The $6K Range
Charl Schwartzel (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Don’t dabble in the $6K range too much this week, but I do have three options that are worth a look. Schwartzel had a T10 at the Masters three starts ago thanks to solid approach and around the green play as he gained almost 9 strokes combined between those two stat categories. He’s always iffy now, but does have upside and is quite cheap to own in DFS. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T14 and 2018 – T9.
Bill Haas (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Haas hasn’t been tearing the monkey up for quite some time now on the PGA Tour, but he has made eight consecutive cuts if you count the Zurich Classic – unfortunately most of it is stemming from his good short game. If he keeps chipping and putting well then he should make yet another cut line and finish in the 40’s or 50’s, but the upside isn’t there since he’s not a great ball-striker anymore. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – T50, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – Cut.
Brian Stuard (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Stuard has two top 9’s, a T16, and two 20-something’s over his last nine starts and some of it is actually due to his approach game as he gained 3.56 strokes at the Mexico Open last week en route to a T42. He should make the cut this week and could pop again for a top 10 if those long irons remain warm. Wells Fargo Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T37 and 2018 – Cut.
