Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Buffalo Bills (-4) | O/U 43.5
With Week 13 just around the corner, the playoffs are inching closer and closer. If we thought teams were playing with intensity already, this is the time of the year when teams really ramp up their efforts to secure the highly coveted spots in the NFL’s hectic postseason.
This week, we have a matchup that offers plenty of playoff implications as these division rivals are attempting to secure a spot among the best the NFL has to offer. From one of the best divisions in football, the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots will be facing off on a pivotal Thursday Night Football.
Team Breakdowns
Both of these teams have records above .500, but one has Super Bowl aspirations while the other is just banking on a playoff appearance. The Buffalo Bills are sitting at 8-3 and coming off of a win against the Detroit Lions while the Patriots are 6-5 coming off of a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Although these teams are divisional rivals, they haven’t had the chance to face off until this week. The consensus line has Buffalo as a four-point favorite while the over/under is set at 43.5. See all NFL Odds Here.
The Bills:
Notable Injuries: LB Von Miller (Out)
The preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl has been stacking up the wins up to this point in the season, but it hasn’t come without some bumps in the road. While still being considered an incredibly tough matchup for any team, the Bills have had their fair share of injuries, specifically to the defensive side.
On defense, this unit started out as a stout group, but they’ve been allowing a decent amount of yards as of late. They’re currently 12th in yards allowed per game, 19th against the pass, and seventh against the run. In addition, over their last three games, the Bills are allowing the sixth most points per game in the NFL. Even with these numbers that don’t necessarily live up to the lofty standards set for this team, they still rank top-10 in pressure rate as well as top-3 in defensive turnover rate.
Buffalo has been snakebit with defensive injuries and it has shown up.
The Bills are allowing 37.6 yards per drive since Week 5, ahead of only the Jaguars (38.3) and Lions (40.3) over that span.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 28, 2022
Their available personnel is the reason this defense has taken a step back. With injuries to starters like Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and most recently Von Miller, this team certainly has an injury bug floating around. They also recently welcomed back star cornerback Tre’Davious White after being unavailable up until Week 12. So far, the Bills have had 27 total games missed by defensive starters due to injury. That’s the most they’ve had at this point of the season in any of the last five years. They’ll hope to get healthier as the team ramps up for the playoffs, but as of now, it isn’t looking great for their defense.
On offense, what more needs to be said? They’re one of the most imposing groups in the league as they rank second in yards per game, third in passing yards per game, eighth in rushing yards per game, and second in scoring rate. However, they do have one alarming stat that has been holding them back lately as they lead the league in offensive turnover rate.
If you’ve been paying attention to fantasy football, you are probably familiar with the weapons this team has to offer. Josh Allen leads this group with his unique combination of incredible throwing prowess, unmatched size, and insane mobility. His receiving options are unmatched as Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis lead the way with Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox mixing in their occasional splash performances. The running game is the only aspect of this offense that could be better, but it’s decent with Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook taking the majority of the work.
If there’s one major aspect that this team needs to improve on, it’s the turnovers. Josh Allen has seven interceptions in his last five starts after having just four in his first six. Hopefully, he cleans up his play in this upcoming Thursday night game.
The Patriots:
Notable Injuries: RB Damien Harris (Out), WR Jakobi Meyers (Questionable)
The Patriots have been an interesting team up to this point in the season. Even though they look like a shell of the team that we saw last season while sitting at fourth in the AFC East, they’re still 6-5 just outside of the playoff picture. Once again, we have to credit the wizard that is Bill Belichick for having this team winning games in their current state.
Defensively, this group looks good on paper. They’re fourth in yards allowed per game, ninth against the pass, and ninth against the run. New England also ranks second in pressure rate and eighth in defensive turnover rate. While those stats all have the look of a dominant defense, you have to look at who they’ve played.
#Patriots vs Tua, Lamar, Rodgers & Fields:
29.3 points and 383.5 yards per game allowed#Patriots vs Trubisky, Goff, Brissett, Zach, Ehlinger & Zach:
8.7 points and 249 yards per game allowed— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) November 22, 2022
So, it’s clear that this Patriots defense might be pretending while being a product of whichever below-average quarterback they’re playing on a weekly basis. They do have some strong players that allow them to dominate subpar offenses though. Stalwarts like Matthew Judon, Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, and Ja’Whaun Bentley keep this defense in place while Bill Belichick keeps doing what he’s always done. They also have another breakout cornerback in Jonathan Jones to take the place of All-Pro J.C. Jackson who left in the offseason.
The Patriots’ offense has been an enigma due to various factors. They rank 21st in yards per game, 19th in passing, and 23rd in the run game. The unit is also 19th in scoring rate and fifth in offensive turnover rate. The two main factors for the mediocrity of this offense have to be the quarterback and the play-caller. Even though he’s coming off his best game of the season, Mac Jones has taken a noticeable step back from his solid rookie campaign. A major reason for that may be that a former defensive coordinator is calling the offensive plays for this team.
In his infinite wisdom, Bill Belichick thought it was a good plan to allow former disgraced head coach, Matt Patricia, to coordinate the offense. This has led to some less-than-stellar results and questionable plays, especially when New England enters the red zone.
Whenever the Patriots march into their opponents’ red zone, they score a touchdown on only 38.71 percent of their appearances, a rate that’s good for 31st in the NFL. What’s even more alarming is that over their last three games, they’ve only scored touchdowns on an abysmal 14.29 percent of their red zone appearances. The next closest team to that mark is the Houston Texans, and they’re at a rate of 30 percent.
The offensive weapons don’t look like that of a bad unit. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris have proven to be a solid running back duo when both are healthy, Jakobi Meyers and the rest of the wide receivers have had their moments, and the tight ends are solid with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith producing at times. Maybe they can pick up their red zone struggles against a Buffalo defense that has been struggling as of late.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
Everyone likes an upset, but it’s probably not happening this week. The Bills are one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this year, and the Patriots have the look of a good defense because of how badly they’ve beaten down their inferior opponents. Now that they’re finally playing Buffalo for the first time this season, I’d expect them to get exposed for who they really are on Thursday night.
The Pick: Bills -4
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Jakobi Meyers ($7,200)
Although this matchup against Buffalo might not look great on paper, it actually holds a lot of potential for New England’s playmakers. In the case of Jakobi Meyers, he might be able to have a big game against a Bills secondary that has been decimated by injuries. Over their last four weeks, Buffalo has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. With Meyers being the main beneficiary of targets in this offense, he could be in for a big game on Thursday.
TE – Dawson Knox ($6,200)
Even though he’s coming off of an ugly game on Thanksgiving, Dawson Knox is in a good position to take advantage of the New England defense this week. So far this season, the Patriots are allowing the eighth most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. With Knox coming off of such a disappointing game, he could be a solid under-the-radar play on Thursday night.
K – Nick Folk ($4,000)
The Patriots’ offense is terrible in the red zone, downright awful. However, they do get there a lot. This lack of touchdown scoring along with many red zone appearances has made the perfect recipe for the success of Patriots kicker Nick Folk. In his last four games, he’s finished with at least 15 points three times. While the wind in Foxborough has affected kicking performances in the past, Thursday’s forecast doesn’t look like it’ll be making a large impact. Fire up Folk for the possibility of another heavy-kicking performance.
