Start 'Em Sit 'Em Week 13
Start 'Em Sit 'Em Week 13
Start 'Em and Sit 'Em is the definitive weekly study of NFL Matchups and the effect they'll have on your fantasy football team. It will not focus on obvious players like Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, or Travis Kelce. All player matchups are based on PPR formats. The column will leverage all of the stats, advanced metrics and other resources available at FantasyData. For your final starting lineup decisions, please review our weekly fantasy football rankings. You can also reach out to me on Twitter (@EricNMoody).
The 12th week of the 2019 NFL season was defined by a number of astonishing performances. Lamar Jackson finished as the QB1. He completed 15 of 20 passes for 169 yards and five touchdowns in the Ravens' eradication of the Rams on Monday Night Football. Jackson added 95 rushing yards on eight attempts and is shaping up to be a league winner from a fantasy football perspective.
Leonard Fournette finished as the RB1. He finished with 97 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 24 attempts against the Titans. Fournette also caught nine of 12 targets for 62 yards. He set a new career-high in touches with 33.
Chris Godwin caught seven of eight targets for 184 yards and two touchdowns in the Buccaneers win over the Falcons. He and Mike Evans are now over 1,000 receiving yards this season.
Zach Ertz caught 12 of 14 targets for 91 yards and one touchdown in the Eagles loss to the Seahawks. He's accumulated 36 targets over the last three games with Philadelphia's receivers dealing with numerous injuries.
Zach Ertz is now the only player in Eagles history with 9 or more catches in three straight games.— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 24, 2019
Are you staring at your fantasy football starting lineup this week wondering what happened? You put together an amazing team during the draft. Others in your league were envious of the players you had on your bench. There was only one problem. You left points on your bench. This shortcoming may have cost you a victory in Week 12. Are you aware of the old adage “start your studs”? If the answer is yes then it’s time to erase that phrase from your memory. It’s okay to take informed risks. These are risks in which the calculated potential payoff outweighs the calculated possible loss, given the knowledge someone has about the circumstances. You’re in the right place to accelerate that change. I will reference expected points (EP), fantasy points over expectation (FPOE), and breakaway runs. EP is based on the average fantasy point value of plays in similar down, distance, and field position instances. FPOE, on the other hand, takes a player’s actual fantasy points and subtracts out the expected points. EP measures volume while FPOE measures efficiency. Start Percentage shows the number of ESPN fantasy leagues a player is started in divided by the number of leagues he is eligible in. This helps indicate how the public views a player. Without further ado, here are my recommendations for Week 13.
Start Andy Dalton
The winless Bengals announced on Monday that Dalton has been renamed the starter against the Jets in Week 13. Ryan Finley had started the three previous games after Dalton was benched. The rookie quarterback completed 47.1 percent of his passes for 474 yards, two touchdowns, and five turnovers in his three starts. Dalton had been the Bengals starting quarterback since he was drafted by Cincinnati in 2011. He averaged 42.2 pass attempts, 25.5 completions, 281.4 passing yards, 285.5 air yards, 1.1 touchdowns, and 1 interception per game this season. Dalton averaged 16 fantasy points per game in eight starts this season with negative passing fantasy points over expectation. He faces a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 23 fantasy points per game to top quarterback scorers over its last five. This game has shootout potential and Dalton can be viewed as a QB2 with upside in Week 13.
Start Carson Wentz (44.4% ST)
Wentz completed 33 of 45 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the Eagles loss to the Seahawks. He was missing Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, and Nelson Agholor. Wentz rushed for 27 yards on five attempts and lost two fumbles. It would have taken a herculean effort for him to thrive in this situation. Wentz's only averaged 230 passing yards and 16 fantasy points per game this season. He is day-to-day with a bruised right hand and it shouldn't keep Wentz from playing against the Dolphins in Week 13. Miami's defense has allowed an average of 21.02 fantasy points per game to top quarterback scorers over its last five. The Dolphins' allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 327 yards and three touchdowns last week and Josh Allen to finish with 36.4 fantasy points back in Week 11. Jeffery and Agholor should return this week to help Wentz. He can be viewed as a high-end QB2 with upside in Week 13.
Start Sam Darnold (10.7% ST)
Darnold completed 20 of 29 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns in the Jets domination of the Raiders. He also scored a rushing touchdown. Darnold has taken advantage of plus matchups against the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders over the last three weeks averaging 28 fantasy points per game. He looks confident as the Jets have scored 34 points in three consecutive games. Head coach Adam, Darnold, and his playmakers are all on the same page and the results are glorious. The fun continues with the Bengals this week and the Dolphins in Week 14. Cincinnati has allowed an average of 23.7 fantasy points per game to top quarterback scorers over its last five. Darnold can be viewed as a low-end QB1.
Start Nick Foles (11.8% ST)
Foles' performance last week was fueled by garbage time. He completed 32 of 48 passes for 272 yards while adding 20 yards on the ground in the Jaguars' loss to the Titans. Jacksonville's head coach Doug Marrone said the staff hasn't considered a quarterback change. The Jaguars are unlikely to bench Foles after he signed a four-year deal worth $88 million. He gets a matchup at home against the Buccaneers. The Jaguars offense will continue to be propelled by Leonard Fournette, but Foles has QB1 upside in Week 13. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 40.2 pass attempts, 25.6 completions, 279 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns, 0.4 interceptions, and 26 fantasy points per game to top quarterback scorers over its last five. Foles can be viewed as a high-end QB2.
Sit Deshaun Watson (76.5% ST)
The only quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points against the Patriots defense over their last five games has been Lamar Jackson (30.25). The other four top quarterback scorers have averaged 8.77 fantasy points per game. Watson has a similar skillset to Jackson and Dak Prescott when it comes to their rushing ability, but the play of the Texans offensive line will be his undoing in this difficult matchup.
Start Rashaad Penny (2.3% ST)
Penny rushed 14 times for 129 yards and one touchdown in the Seahawks win over the Eagles. The second-year running back had averaged only 5.7 opportunities per game prior to Week 12. Penny finished with more rushing attempts than Chris Carson (8) and played a season-high 49 percent of the Seahawks' offensive snaps. Carson's fourth lost fumble this season also casts a dark cloud over his usage in Week 13 as the Seahawks host the Vikings. It will be difficult to put the genie back in the bottle after this performance. Head coach Pete Carroll has insinuated that "competition is a good thing." Penny suddenly finds himself on the RB3 radar with RB2 upside in Week 13.
Start Jonathan Williams (13.7% ST)
Williams rushed 26 times for 104 yards and a touchdown in the Colts loss to the Texans. He also had three receptions for 17 yards. With Marlon Mack already ruled out for Week 13 as he recovers from a hand injury Williams is slated to lead the Colts backfield again. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins will act as backups as the Colts face the Titans. Tennessee has allowed an average of 110 rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey, Damien Williams, and Leonard Fournette over the last three weeks. Williams can be viewed as a solid RB2 in Week 13.
Start Kareem Hunt (52.1% ST)
Hunt rushed eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown while catching two of three targets for nine yards against the Dolphins. The Browns continue to deploy Hunt and Nick Chubb in two-back formations. The former Chiefs running back has 79 rushing yards on 18 attempts and 15 receptions for 99 yards since returning from suspension. Hunt is a dual-threat and can threaten defenses as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. He's also done an excellent job in pass protection. Hunt can be viewed as an RB3 with upside against the Steelers in Week 13. He caught six of eight targets for 46 yards and rushed for 12 yards against the Steelers back in Week 11.
Start Courtland Sutton (54% ST)
Sutton only caught one of eight targets for 27 yards in the Broncos loss to the Bills. This was expected as he dealt with shutdown cornerback Tre'Davious White. Sutton has seen a 29 percent target share over the last four games following Emmanuel Sanders' trade to the 49ers. The quarterback situation isn't optimal, but Sutton's target share is. He and the Broncos face a Chargers defense that's tied for fourth in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game (220). Sutton can be viewed as a low-end WR2 in Week 13.
Start DeVante Parker (42.8% ST)
Parker caught six of 11 targets for 91 yards against the Browns. He continues to be one of the few fantasy-relevant players in the Dolphins offense. Over the last nine games, Parker's averaged 7.7 targets, 4.8 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 87 air yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. He's had at least five receptions in five of the last six games. Parker's 695 receiving yards through 11 games is the second-highest of his career. He is on the WR3 radar against the Eagles secondary in Week 13. Philadelphia's defense is allowing the ninth most PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
Start Christian Kirk
Kirk leads Arizona's receivers with 9.5 targets and 87.2 air yards per game this season. He only caught six of nine targets for 41 yards against the 49ers back in Week 11. Kirk caught six of 10 targets for 138 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 10. He faces a Packers defense in Week 12 that was picked apart by Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday Night Football. Kirk can be viewed as a high-end WR3 with upside in the Cardinals pass-heavy offense against the Rams this week. Los Angeles' has allowed an average of 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receiver scorers over its last five. With the most recent being Marquise Brown who finished with seven targets, five receptions, 42 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
Start Tyler Boyd (36.8% ST)
Boyd caught five of nine targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals loss to the Steelers. He's averaged 9.3 targets all season with negative receiving fantasy points over expectation. This was Boyd's third 100-yard game of the season. He made an electrifying one-handed grab and lost a costly fumble. With Dalton back under center, Boyd can be viewed as a high-end WR3 this week against a Jets defense allowing the sixth-most PPR fantasy points per game (38.47) to wide receivers this season. New York has allowed an average of 19 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receivers over its last five. This includes a 34.1 PPR fantasy point game from Darius Slayton. Dalton will provide Boyd all the targets he can handle at home against the Jets in Week 13.
Start Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has missed the Eagles last two games with an ankle injury. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6 and is only averaging a dismal 11.7 PPR fantasy points per game this season with one WR1 finish. The Eagles desperately need him to be active in Week 13 and the matchup against the Dolphins is enticing. Miami has allowed an average of 9.8 targets, 6.8 receptions, 100.4 receiving yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 24 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receiver scorers over its last five. Jeffery has a WR3 floor and a WR1 ceiling in Week 13.
Start Robby Anderson (12.6% ST)
Anderson caught four of five targets for 86 yards and a touchdown in the Jets win over the Raiders. This statistical explosion took place after quiet games against the Giants and Redsksins in which he combined for two receptions for 17 yards. It was nice to see Gase get Anderson more involved with his play calling. This trend will continue against the Bengals in Week 13. Cincinnati's defense has allowed an average of 37.5 PPR fantasy points per game with positive receiving fantasy points over expectation to wide receivers over its last five. Anderson can be viewed as an upside WR3 this week.
Sit Will Fuller (12.6% ST)
Fuller caught seven of 11 targets for 140 yards in the Texans win over the Colts last week. This was his first game since Week 7 in which he went boom for fantasy players. Fuller's 140 receiving yards were the second-most of his career. His start percentage is likely to shoot up after this performance, but Fuller is not a recommended start against the Patriots defense. New England has allowed an average of 9.42 PPR fantasy points per game over it's last five to top wide receiver scorers. It would be surprising if the disciplined Patriots defense allows itself to get beat deep by any of the Texans receivers.
Start Jack Doyle (23.5% ST)
Doyle caught three of four targets for 28 yards in the Colts loss to the Texans last week. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport reported yesterday that Eric Ebron needs to have surgery on both ankles and will be placed on injured reserve. The Colts will turn to Doyle to fill the void. Indianapolis has provided its tight ends 9.3 targets per game this season. Doyle will be competing with backup Mo Alie-Cox for offensive snaps and targets. He and the Colts face the Titans in Week 13. Tennessee's defense has allowed an average of six targets, 4.6 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game to top tight end scorers over it's last five. Doyle can be viewed as a high-end TE2 this week.
Start Kyle Rudolph
The last time Rudolph was on the field prior to the Vikings bye week he caught five of five targets for 67 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's win over the Broncos in Week 11. He was more involved as a receiver with Adam Thielen dealing with a hamstring injury. Rudolph should still be involved in Week 13 against the Seahawks defense. Seattle's defense has allowed an average of 7.6 targets, 4.8 receptions, 46.2 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns, and 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game to top tight end scorers over its last five. This includes monster games from Zach Ertz (27.1) and Austin Hooper (18.5). Rudolph can be viewed as a high-end TE2 with upside against the Seahawks.
Bringing It All Together
Making lineup decisions in fantasy football whether it's redraft, dynasty, or DFS is mind-numbing. It's important not to second guess yourself or make ungrounded last-minute changes. One good best practice is to set your lineup the night before your matchup begins. Breaking news should be the only thing that prompts you to make changes.
If you have additional questions please refer to our fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody).
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Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee