Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM Week 13
Let’s reflect on how my recommended start and sits fared during Week 12. James Conner was the RB4 in PPR formats against a bad Chargers’ run defense, absorbing 28 touches and finishing with 148 yards and a receiving touchdown. Rhamondre Stevenson was held out of the end zone but stayed busy as a receiver for Mac Jones, finishing with nine receptions for 76 yards, while averaging 5.1 YPC, good enough to produce an RB7 finish. Tony Pollard finally cooled off against a good Giants defense, ceding the touchdowns to Ezekiel Elliot, and winding up as the RB40. Michael Pittman Jr. had his best game in weeks on Monday Night Football against Pittsburgh, finishing with 7/61/1 on 11 targets to produce a WR14 finish. Unfortunately, Gabe Davis (WR64) and Tyler Boyd (WR83) were barely involved in the game plan, while Pat Freiermuth only caught three receptions for 39 yards on a meager four targets, finishing as the TE19. It was a great week to start Justin Herbert, who finished as the QB3 with 274 yards and three touchdowns. As for my sits, D.J. Moore (WR11) was the only player to exceed expectations. Daniel Jones (QB19), D’Andre Swift (RB31), and Cole Kmet (TE24) all busted, so I hit on three of my four recommended sits.
Hopefully, you’ve been following along all season and tailing my advice. If you’re new and looking for a way to maximize points in your fantasy lineups, you’ve arrived at the right destination. Here are my favorite players to start and sit as we enter the final couple of weeks looking for a playoff berth toward the end of the regular fantasy football season.
Start
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) New England Patriots
Second-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been New England’s most valuable player this season. While he only has one game with over 100 rushing yards, it’s the way the Patriots utilize Stevenson in the passing attack. He’s as sure-handed as they come, hauling in six or more receptions in four of his past five games played. Stevenson is on a mini-touchdown drought, failing to find the end zone in his last two games played, but he’s delivering fringe RB1 production without scoring. He’ll face Buffalo’s run defense, which has been vulnerable with numerous injuries throughout the year. Stevenson finished with 24 carries for 78 yards in his only matchup against the Bills, which came during Week 13 in 2021. With Damien Harris expected not to play on Thursday night, Stevenson should be locked and loaded into fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes in Week 13.
David Montgomery (RB) Chicago Bears
Due to injuries in Chicago’s backfield, fourth-year running back David Montgomery has seen a spike in his production over the last two games. The Bears’ defense is bad, forcing the offense to score points, but Montgomery was actually quieter without Justin Fields as QB1 against the Jets in Week 12. He is getting roughly 20 touches per game without Khalil Herbert, which is plenty of volume to make Montgomery a solid RB2. He’s gifted a top-seven fantasy running back matchup in Week 13 against Green Bay’s run defense, who has been getting gashed all season. Plug Montgomery in as a high-end RB2 with low-end RB1 upside at home in Week 13.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB) Miami Dolphins
We were all waiting for Jeff Wilson to deliver a 30-point burst against Houston’s 32nd-ranked run defense, but he only ended up with 12.2 PPR points in Week 12. Part of it was due to the cramping that hit him in the middle of a lopsided blowout win over the Texans, but he was given several red zone carries, which only netted one touchdown. He caught one of his three targets for 13 additional yards, but without Raheem Mostert active, it was a disappointing performance. Wilson will face his former team, the San Francisco 49ers, during the game of the week in Week 13, and it’s a difficult matchup. However, Miami head coach Mike McDaniel spent years learning under 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, so he’ll know how to scheme up an effective offense to counter the strong defensive front deployed by San Francisco. Tua Tagovailoa has been throwing the ball quickly, which could lead to more targets for Wilson, while opening up valuable red zone touches by targeting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle downfield. Wilson is a bit of a risky start but we’re looking for upside and he’s provided three straight double-digit PPR finishes since joining the Dolphins at the trade deadline. Fire Wilson up as an RB2 with RB1 upside, even if Mostert is activated.
D.K. Metcalf (WR) Seattle Seahawks
Seattle lost in heartbreaking fashion in Week 12, but D.K. Metcalf had a solid outing, reaching 20 PPR points for just the second time this season. He didn’t find his way into the end zone but Geno Smith peppered Metcalf with targets, hauling in 11 of 15 targets for 90 yards. Tyler Lockett and Metcalf can co-exist with each other whenever Smith throws for 275 yards and two touchdowns, which is what he’s been doing for the majority of the season. In Week 13, Metcalf gets a top-ten matchup against the Rams’ secondary, which is allowing 35.24 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. Treat Metcalf as a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside on the road at SoFi Stadium.
Christian Kirk (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk took a back seat to Zay Jones in Week 12 during Jacksonville’s electrifying win over Baltimore’s porous pass defense. He gets another juicy matchup against Detroit in Week 13. The Lions are surrendering 39.48 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts, which is the third most this season, so Kirk is due for a bounce-back after delivering 8 PPR points last week. Prior to the dud performance, Kirk had 21.6 and 31.5 point outings, and he’s only finished below double-digit PPR production four times this year. Treat Kirk as a WR2 with a top-five ceiling at his position.
Josh Palmer (WR) Los Angeles Chargers
It’s been difficult to gauge how third-year wideout Josh Palmer will perform for fantasy purposes this season. He popped without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while also delivering a couple of dud finishes, including 7.4 PPR points against San Francisco’s constrictive defense. Palmer caught eight receptions for 106 yards in two of the past four games against the Falcons and Chiefs, adding two touchdowns to deliver a monster ceiling finish against Kansas City in Week 11, so he’s an exciting prospect ahead of Sunday’s road matchup against a porous Las Vegas secondary. The Raiders are the 11th-best matchup for fantasy wideouts in PPR, allowing 34.15 points per game. Yes, Palmer was held in check during a Week 1 win over Las Vegas, catching three passes for five total yards, but the Chargers are hitting their stride with Justin Herbert looking healthier and adding back other weapons. Plug Palmer in as a low-end WR2 with low-end WR1 upside on the road against the Raiders in Week 13.
David Njoku (TE) Cleveland Browns
David Njoku caught an impressive one-handed touchdown in a clutch moment during Cleveland’s 23-17 overtime win against the Buccaneers in Week 12. He was relatively quiet outside of that play, but Njoku will get a significant boost with Deshaun Watson returning from suspension against Houston in Week 13. The Texans are the 14th-toughest matchup for tight ends, but Njoku is going to be a nice safety valve for Watson as he gets reacclimated in the pocket. Njoku has four games with over 57 receiving yards, so if he catches a touchdown, he’ll be a top-five tight end during Watson’s return to Houston.
Joe Burrow (QB) Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow’s MVP odds have rocketed up since leading Cincinnati to a three-game win streak following a bad loss to Cleveland. Burrow has done this without star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, as well as running back Joe Mixon in Week 12, throwing for at least 270 yards in his past two games. He’s expected to get Chase and Mixon back in Week 13 during a huge AFC Championship rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Burrow could explode for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, so add him into starting lineups without hesitation.
Sit
Devin Singletary (RB) Buffalo Bills
It’s difficult recommending any running back against New England’s run defense in 2022. The Patriots are the toughest matchup for fantasy running backs, allowing a meager 15.56 PPR points per game to the position, which does not bode well for Devin Singletary’s outlook in Week 13. The fourth-year running back only saw one target against Detroit in Week 12, while failing to find the end zone for the first time in three games, ruining his ceiling and showcasing his low floor. 5.1 YPC couldn’t save Singletary, so in a difficult matchup, fade him and pivot elsewhere, particularly with a divisional road game on Thursday night in Foxboro.
Mike Evans (WR) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin outperformed Mike Evans in every single facet of the game against Cleveland in Week 12. Evans saw nine targets, including several downfield, but only hauled in two receptions for 31 yards. The big-bodied wideout is experiencing notable touchdown regression, going from 14 touchdowns in 2021 to three touchdowns through ten games played this season. Evans will face the Saints secondary, who aren’t the most difficult matchup, but they held him under 10 PPR points in Week 2. He blew up with a 30.3 PPR finish back in Week 3 against the Chiefs, but it’s been slim pickings since. Bench Evans, as he has not shown sustainable WR2 production in recent matchups.
Cole Kmet (TE) Chicago Bears
Justin Fields’ absence due to a separated shoulder in Week 12 did not do Cole Kmet any favors. It was a difficult matchup for tight ends against the Jets, and Kmet will get another tough outing against the Green Bay Packers in Week 13. Whether Fields plays or not, Kmet has quickly fizzled out from producing consecutive 22-point PPR finishes. He needs touchdowns, which are not coming as easily anymore, so temper expectations for Kmet and look at other tight end streaming options like Tyler Conklin or Juwan Johnson.
Lamar Jackson (QB) Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson continues to disappoint from a fantasy football perspective. The former 2019 NFL MVP showed elite production at the beginning of the season, but injuries and a porous defense have caught up with him. Jackson only completed 50 percent of his pass attempts against Jacksonville in Week 12 and hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in three weeks. He’s utilizing his legs more, which is great for fantasy purposes, but the lack of passing production, combined with relying on a rushing touchdown, which has only happened once in the past eight games, is taking on a lot of risk. Denver has a putrid offense but the Broncos’ defense is the second-toughest matchup for quarterbacks in 2022. As difficult as it sounds, bench Jackson in Week 13 and look at better streaming options such as Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Trevor Lawrence.
