Thursday Night Football Props & Odds: Raiders vs. Chargers

Thursday Night Football Props

AFC West foes clash in a game that could have the potential to shake-up the AFC Playoff picture indefinitely. Rookie of the Year front-runner Justin Herbert leads the Chargers into battle against the struggling Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Can LA play spoiler to their longtime rivals? Can the Raiders take advantage of the Bolts’ inability to close games? All these questions should be answered in this article, so keep on reading! Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this matchup between Jon Gruden and Anthony Lynn, as the loser of this game may very well be shown the door by the end of the weekend. 

Game Info

• Spread: Raiders -3.5
• Total: 53
• See Live Odds

The Raiders have been a very alright team this season, with some very impressive wins over Kansas City and New Orleans mixed in with some inexplicable losses to the likes of Atlanta and New England. Following the dismissal of former defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, it’s very possible that we see a revival on defense for Las Vegas this week. While shutting down Justin Herbert is easier said than done, the rookie has thrown four picks in his last three starts, looking rather shaky since cutting off his locks. Losing Mike Williams this week could be a killer for the Chargers’ passing game, as teams can now focus more heavily on Keenan Allen with Williams off the field. Yet even with Williams out, Los Angeles possesses a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. While the Chargers may be the more talented team on paper, we’ve seen time and time again that they struggle to close games. As long as the Raiders show up to play in this one, victory can be achieved. The points total of 53 for this game is laughable, as only the wonky Week 4 game between Denver and New York and the Week 2 battle between Cleveland and Cincinnati have combined for more than 53 points. Teams are generally worn out from the previous Sunday’s game and rarely put up massive offensive outputs, especially this late in the season. Bet the under if you’re going for total points. 

Las Vegas Raiders

• Overall: 7-6
• Road: 5-2

The Raiders have been a really good road team this season, with five of their seven wins coming away from Nevada. This Raider team ebbs and flows with the play of Derek Carr, as they are 3-1 in games where he’s thrown for three or more touchdowns while their last four losses have come in games where he’s thrown a pick. Getting Josh Jacobs involved has been equally important to this team’s success, as they’re undefeated in games where Jacobs has rushed for 60+ yards. By mixing the run and the pass in a balanced manner, Las Vegas should be able to win this game — assuming their defense holds up its end of the bargain. The Raiders rank 25th in the league against both the run and the pass — which is about as mediocre as a team can be before being “bad”. If their secondary can play inspired football and lock up Keenan Allen for the better part of this game, while also getting some pressure on Herbert, this game should be in the bag. Herbert is 1-9 in games where he’s been sacked at least twice, with his lone victory coming against — guess who? — the Jets. As a unit, Las Vegas’s defense has accumulated at least two sacks in five games this season, though they’ve been sackless entirely in five games, as well. If we get the good version of this defense, it could be a long night for Herbert and the Chargers. 

Los Angeles Chargers

• Overall: 4-9
• Home: 3-4

While Las Vegas has been better on the road, the Bolts have been better at home, with 75% of their wins coming in LA County. If Mike Williams is forced to miss this contest, it is imperative that the team gets the ball to Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler in order to open up the field for Keenan Allen. This cannot be another game where Allen is targeted 10+ times while double covered, as that is simply not a good example of winning football. This is a team that is susceptible to giving up yards on the ground, ranking 21st in the NFL as a run defense. If the Chargers allow Josh Jacobs to run all over them we can call this one at the half. While LA’s pass defense is the 7th best in the league, locking up Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs won’t mean much if they can’t stop the run. I like the Chargers’ odds to beat this spread, as five of their games have been determined by three points or less, while ten of their games have been decided by one score. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been involved in six games where the score has been one score or less. As tempting as it may be to take the Chargers’ money line, I’m feeling fairly confident that the Raiders will emerge in this must-win game. If the Chargers drop to 4-10 it’s hard to see Anthony Lynn surviving until next week. 

Best Player Props

These odds and more found at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Derek Carr | Touchdown Passes Less Than 1.5 +145

Carr isn’t the guy to throw for a ton of yards or touchdowns unless he has to. Facing the stout pass defense of the Chargers this week, I like the odds against Carr this week. Assuming Josh Jacobs does his job, there will be no need for Carr to air it out this week. 

Darren Waller | Under 6.5 Receptions +110

This prop ties into my theory that Carr will not have a huge passing performance. Waller is clearly the No. 1 target for this offense and the Chargers know that. I expect them to throw a ton of coverage in his direction this week, forcing Carr to throw elsewhere. Waller has eight games this season with less than six receptions, which makes me feel even better about chasing this hunch. 

Nelson Agholor | Under 3.5 Receptions +115

Agholor has more than 3 receptions in each of his last four games. Consider this a contrarian pick, as I think much of Agholor’s production has been a result of defenses not respecting him. The Chargers won’t make that mistake, and I think the veteran could be in for a quiet day.