Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars (-3) | Over/ Under 47.5
Week 3 begins with two Florida based teams fighting to right the ship after a week two loss. In the all-time series, the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the battle between the teams 5-4, with Jacksonville winning the last two contests. For both teams, the teams will have to find victory through their offense as their defense is ranked towards the bottom of the league (23rd/Dolphins, 24th/Jaguars).
So how will each team game plan to win this game, let’s break it down below.
How Do The Miami Dolphins Win The Game?
Although this is not a matchup that excites fans, this could be a battle of two passing offenses with a surprise back on each team leading the way. The run game will rely on Myles Gaskin, and when Ryan Fitzpatrick moves the ball through the air, he will be leaning on DeVante Parker. Although Parker is dealing with injury concerns, he played on a team-high 43 routes last week.
As a defense, the Jaguars are ranked 10th in all the NFL in rushing defense; however, as a passing defense, they are 30th rank giving up 294 yards per game. I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will be facing a woefully inept defense for the first time this year (he faced the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots to start the year) and this will allow him to air the ball out all night in a back and forth with the Jaguars.
How Do The Jacksonville Jaguars Win The Game?
The Jaguars have been one of the shocking teams in the NFL. When the season started they were ranked as one of the worst teams in the NFL. After two games and a surprise victory, the Jaguars (led by Gardner Minshew II) have shown they are a formidable team.
Unlike the Miami Dolphins, the Jaguars can bring a more balanced approach to their game plan to walk away with the victory. James Robinson will handle the load in the backfield, as he is averaging 16 carried per game. Minshew will use his plethora of weapons with DJ Chark, Keenan Cole, Chris Conley, and Tyler Eifert to facilitate a back and forth passing barrage between these two teams.
With a football game featuring two weak defenses such as this Thursday Night matchup, the real key will be which team can limit mistakes. The turnover battle will be crucial for this game as it can swing momentum to either side and change the outcome of the game.
Since this game features two bottoms of the barrel defenses, we have a lot of FS options to play in our showdown. Let’s break them down below by position.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($10,200)
Ryan Fitzpatrick has stuck to his image and has been aggressive and daring in and out of the pocket for the Dolphins this season. However, he also brings inconsistencies to the table. Fitzpatrick comes off a great fantasy output in week two as his stat line read: 31 of 47 for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns. There should be more of the same in this game as this will be his first matchup all season against anything other than a top tier passing defense. Fitzpatrick will be a play for your DFS lineup as they will need to put points on the board to keep pace with the Jaguars offense.
Gardner Minshew II ($11,000)
As someone who has been part of the Minshew Mania this offseason (click here to see my hot take on Gardner Minshew), Gardner Minshew will need to be a play in your lineup. Although starting both quarterbacks will cost us $21,200 of our cap, they both need to be in the lineup. Minshew is the first Jaguars player with three straight games of at least three passing scores in franchise history. The Miami Dolphins are also a defense allowing a thumping 30.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, most in the AFC. Minshew is a lock in this matchup Thursday night. In the battle of the beard vs the mustache, both quarterbacks have the ability to put a ton of yards/touchdowns on the stat sheet.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin ($7,200), Jordan Howard($4,800), Matt Breida ($1,800)
The run game is not what comes to mind when you think of the Miami Dolphins. This offseason the Dolphins went out and signed Jordan Howard, and then acquired Matt Brieda. However, the big name to look at in this backfield is Myles Gaskin. Gaskin has the 6th highest YAC in the NFL at 3.94 yards per attempt. He has effectively taken the backfield over and has pushed Howard to goal line only, and Brieda becomes non-existent. However, for Gaskins price point, he is not worth being put in your lineup, and thus we will look elsewhere outside of the Dolphins backfield to build our lineup.
Current YAC per attempt leaders at RB:
1) Kareem Hunt – 5.13
2) James Conner – 4.59
3) Aaron Jones – 4.53
4) Nick Chubb – 4.47
5) Leonard Fournette – 4.41
6) Myles Gaskin – 3.94
7) James Robinson – 3.88 #fantasyfootball— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) September 22, 2020
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James Robinson ($7,800), Chris Thompson ($2,600)
Right behind Gaskins in YAC per attempt is James Robinson at 3.88 yards per attempt. Robinson also averages 16 carries a game and has become the bell cow to this team’s backfield. The game plan will involve feeding Robinson to open up the play-action passing for the Jaguars down the field.
Chris Thompson, the hot name this offseason, has been relegated to backup duty and not worth a second look. Unless you are hoping for a random touchdown on his few touches a game, we would be wasting our salary at this position and can find a better cheap, yet high upside player.
As for your DFS lineup, as great as the start of the season has been to James Robinson, you can look elsewhere and save that cash for a better play on Thursday night.
Wide Receivers
DeVante Parker ($8,400), Preston Williams ($6,800)
As stated earlier DaVante Parker will be the main target to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Parker is still dealing with a banged-up hamstring but that didn’t stop him from gaining a touchdown last week on his eight targets. Preston Williams is Fitzpatrick’s other weapon (although he only has 3 catches on the season). Although this is a talented wide receiver core, Preston Williams needs to show his ability to make plays, coming off his injury before we slot him in our lineup, and Parker is costly for someone dealing with an injury on a short week. These are two risky plays to add to your lineup when we can find fantasy points elsewhere.
DJ Chark Jr. ($9,400), , Laviska Shenault Jr. ($6,600), Keelan Cole ($5,400), Chris Conley ($2,200)
Although DJ Chark Jr. was all the rage this offseason he hasn’t been getting a lot of targets thrown his way, as he only was able to ent four targets in week 2. It is encouraging, however, that his average depth of target is 17.3 yards. Chark is now paired with two players, a rookie in Laviska Shenault Jr and Keelan Cole. Shenault is more of a Swiss Army knife for the team, and although it is fun to watch the plays that are called for him, its a risky play to drop over 6k on him this week.
The better play is Keelan Cole. His production has been a surprise to the NFL community in this early part of the season. However, in PPR leagues, Cole was the WR 24 in week one and the WR 16 in week 2. On the season, Cole is WR 17.
He has a high percentage of snaps as well within this wide receiver core:
- DJ Chark: 101 snap (67% of total)
- Keelan Cole: 84 snaps (56% of total)
- Laviska Shenault: 74 snaps (49% of total)
Chris Conley is coming off a four catch for 48-yard performance. He can become a cheap home run play for your lineup.
With Bryon Jones (Dolphins cornerback) doubtful, these wide receiver core could have a been day Thursday.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki ($7,400)
8 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown last week, and somehow Mike Gesicki is still a cheaper option in DFS. Ryan Fitzpatricks became hyper-focused on his targets last week and Gesicki reaped the rewards. I expect more of the same in this game as Fitzpatrick has shown his comfort in this athletic tight end.
Tyler Eifert ($5,800)
Although he scored a touchdown last week, Eifert is low on the pecking order in this Jaguars offense.
Defense and Kickers
Jaguars Defense ($6,400), Dolphins Defense ($4,000), Josh Lambo ($4,400), Jason Sanders ($4,200)
There will be a lot of points in this Thursday night showdown. However, I do not want to touch either of these defenses as they are two of the lower rank defense in all the league. As for the kickers, this is a game where you can slot in more talented picks to drive your fantasy total up.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Miami Dolphins: 24
FREE DFS Head To Head Lineup
- Keelan Cole (Captain Pick $8,100)
- DJ Chark ($9,400)
- Chris Conley ($2,200)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick ($10,200)
- Mike Gesicki ($7,400)
- Gardner Minshew II ($11,000)
