Underdog Fantasy Picks
Super Bowl LVI kicks off on Sunday and on Underdog Fantasy you can get in on the action where you can win up to 20x your entry on parlay style Pick ‘Ems. Below are my Best Bets for the Pick ‘Ems (o/u) on Underdog. Best of luck on Sunday!
What Is Underdog Fantasy?
Underdog Fantasy is a new way to play Daily Fantasy Sports focusing on Best Ball and Pick ’em type games. However, Underdog Fantasy is different than other DFS platforms, as they don’t use a salary cap game format. For the Super Bowl, you can play in a Draft tournament where you Fantasy Data is thrilled to be teaming up with Underdog Fantasy for 2022. Underdog offers a ton of different types of games including Drafts, Pick’em, and Best Ball. The Underdog App is really nice and easy to use. We’re big fans of them.
FantasyData Exclusive Offer: Underdog Fantasy will double your first deposit (up to $100) in bonus cash for first-time signups.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow Under 24.5 Completions – Burrow has gone over 24.5 completions just 37.5% of the time in the regular season and had not achieved that threshold in any of his 7 regular-season games away from Cincinnati’s Paul Brown Stadium. Joe Burrow has gone under in two of three playoff games– the exception was the Tennessee Titans, where the Bengals avoided the Titans’ run defense which allowed the 2nd fewest rush attempts and rushing yards on the season. The Rams allowed 24.47 pass completions per game during the regular season, and have only allowed 25+ passes once this postseason: to the pass-heavy Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense with Tom Brady.
Matthew Stafford Under 5.5 Rush Yards – Stafford has been under this number 76.5% of the time this season, and 83.3% of the time in wins. With the Rams favored by 4.5 points as of this writing, the game script favors Matthew Stafford to hit the under on 5.5 rush yards. Considering how many teams will allow their starting quarterback to kneel out the final drive if the Super Bowl is in hand, choosing the under makes sense.
Running Backs
Cam Akers Under 15.5 Longest Run – Akers hasn’t recorded a rush this long since January 9th of 2021. While he’s been a sensational comeback story recovering from a preseason Achilles injury, the Rams seemed to scale back his work after two fumbles in the NFC Divisional Playoff vs. Tampa Bay, though insisting that Sony Michel “deserved more work.” Not to mention Darrell Henderson, who is expected to be active in the Super Bowl and may take away a few carries from the volume of Cam Akers and his opportunity to break off a big run.
Sony Michel Over 7.5 Longest Run – Unlike backfield teammate Cam Akers, Sony Michel has displayed all kinds of explosiveness this season. Michel rushed for a game-high over 7.5 yards 76.5% of the regular season, with at least a 14 yard rush in each of the final six regular-season games. When Michel had a part-time role in the offense, which is what we would expect for the Super Bowl, he still rushed for a game-high over 7.5 in 63.4% of the first eleven regular-season games.
Joe Mixon Under 15.5 Fantasy Points (0.5 PPR) – Joe Mixon has hit the under on 15.5 ½ PPR fantasy points 57.9% of the time. The Eight Teams (and their rank vs. RB) he went over against: Pittsburgh(26), Baltimore (11), Cleveland (15), Las Vegas(29), Detroit(30), New York Jets(32), Minnesota- Overtime(22), Tennessee(1). Joe Mixon was able to eek the over against Tennessee because he fell into the endzone and caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 51 yards (longest 21 yards). It will take a fluky breakaway reception for Mixon to get the over, and the Rams only allow on average 18.8 ½ PPR fantasy points per game to the running back position. If you think Mixon will smash, taking his 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs is the Mixon pivot instead of taking over this line.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp Over 31.5 Longest Reception – Finally we get to Cooper Kupp, perhaps one of the most dangerous wide receivers in the NFL, who hit the line 64.7% of the time during the regular season, and also hit this line against Tampa Bay. The Bengals allowed a 32+ yard reception at least once in 55% of games in the 2021 regular and postseason; the teams who couldn’t do it: Cleveland (no Baker Mayfield), Baltimore (no Lamar Jackson), Denver, San Francisco, New York Jets (Mike White), Las Vegas (x2), Chicago, and Pittsburgh– these 8 teams had only 64 collective instances of a 32+ yard catch during the season (41.8% of games on average). Kupp is vastly superior to any receiver on these teams and will be fun to watch make big plays on Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 0.5 Rec TDs – Chase Scored 13 TDs (on average 0.765 TDs/game) in 17 regular-season games and scored in the AFC Championship contest against Kansas City. All 12 of Ja’Marr Chase’s RedZone targets were also EndZone targets during the regular season indicating that Chase is the first passing read when the Bengals get in close to the goal line, and trust will be at an all-time high in the biggest game of the year for the Bengals. Joe Burrow will be looking for his trusted WR Chase in the endZone.
Tyler Boyd Under 17.5 Longest Reception – Boyd has not come close to this number in any of the playoff games, with his game-high catches of 10, 9, and 10 yards. Given Tyler Boyd’s recent cold streak in the playoffs, along with 52.6% of Boyd’s games (regular and postseason) hitting the under, and with CJ Uzomah likely to play and also take the short-yardage, middle of the field routes, Boyd’s yardage ceiling is capped with downfield threats Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins full-go.
Special Line: Joe Burrow o1.0 Pass Yards
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