Super Bowl LVI Preview: Rams vs Bengals

Super Bowl LVI Preview

This year’s Super Bowl matchup has a different vibe to it, almost a youth movement feel. Most people don’t feel too strongly about one team or another which should make for an entertaining game. The Bengals are just happy to be this far and while the Rams were just here three years ago, the addition of Matthew Stafford has completely changed the offense and energy of this team. 

The new era of Burrow, Mahomes, Allen has begun, and I’m all in on the young AFC quarterbacks competing to get this far. 

Honestly, if we could watch the Bills play the Chiefs or the Bengals play the Chiefs repeatedly, then let’s do it. The AFC Divisional and Championship games lived up to the hype. Right after the 2021 NFL Draft, I wrote an article discussing the stock report that included the discussion of the logical pick of Penei Sewell or the sexy selection of Ja’Marr Chase. It’s safe to say that the Bengals needed Chase to make it to the Super Bowl. We dove deep, so let’s jump into the matchups, possible range of outcomes, and game picks for the big game. 

In this article, I’m going to break down my thoughts on Super Bowl LVI. I’ll compare each team’s offense versus the opponents’ defense to hopefully help you pick a winner and find prop bets for Super Bowl LVI.

Bengals Offense vs. Rams Defense

The Bengals will arguably face the toughest defense throughout the entire postseason. However, the Bengals have also averaged over 337 total yards per game to beat the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Rams defense allowed 274.7 total yards per game. The Bengals played close matchups.

Although the Rams allowed the 9th most passing yards to the quarterback position, they gave up the second-fewest passing touchdowns (16) and recorded the third-most interceptions (19). In Joe Burrow’s second season, he threw 34 touchdowns (No. 8) with a 6.5% touchdown rate. On the flip side, the Rams allowed a 2.6% touchdown rate, so we’ll see how the Bengals attack the Rams’ pass defense. 

Amongst all playoff quarterbacks, Burrow ranked 6th with 7.7 yards per attempt, with the third-most passing yards (842) behind Patrick Mahomes (1,057) and Matthew Stafford (905). Unfortunately, it’s only two weeks of advanced data, but Burrow ranked 2nd with 1.31 in Passing Air Yards Conversion Rate (PACR) and 4th with a 6.0 EPA. Regardless, it shows us the efficiency for Burrow amongst the top quarterbacks. 

In the 1st 2 playoff games, Joe Burrow ranked 2nd w/ a 1.31 PACR & 4th w/ a 6.0 EPA.

Aligns w/ the season-long data (min. 400 PA):
-1st w/ 8.8 YPA (No. 1)
-2nd w/ a 1.115 PACR behind Jimmy Garoppolo
-7th w/ 109 EPA

📷X-Factor = CIN Protection vs. Rams Defense pic.twitter.com/PSASPxkBDo

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) February 6, 2022

That aligns with the season-long metrics, evidenced by Burrow’s 8.8 YPA (No. 1), 1.115 PACR (No. 2) behind Jimmy Garoppolo, and 7th with 109 EPA amongst quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts. Look for Burrow to attack the Rams defense through the air, hopefully, with some high efficiency. 

Joe Mixon Versus The Rams 

The Rams also proved to have a run defense that limits production on the ground, evidenced by the 9th-fewest rushing yards to the running back position. However, they ranked middle of the pack in receptions allowed, with 85 at No. 14 and No. 17 in receiving yards. Joe Mixon garnered the majority of the running back touches in all three playoff games with a healthy target share in them too. 

In three playoff games, Joe Mixon ended with 63.3 rushing yards and 98.7 total yards per game. Assuming the Rams limit Mixon even more in the Super Bowl, we might want to bet the under on any prop bets surrounding Mixon’s yardage. 

Bengals Pass-Catchers Versus The Rams

Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase nearly eclipsed 100 receiving yards in two games each. However, Higgins just missed the mark by four yards. Regardless, Chase and Higgins remain Joe Burrow’s top targets in the passing game, with Tyler Boyd having a minimal role. 

Although we only have advanced data from the first two playoff games, Chase ranks 5th with a 0.678 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) and tied for 6th with a 1.271 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR) with Cooper Kupp. Since it’s the first two games, Higgins didn’t pop until the Divisional and Conference Rounds. On the season, Chase ranked 15th in WOPR and 28th in RACR, yet the 4th highest fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/Gm). Higgins trailed Chase with the 18th ranked WOPR, 40th ranked RACR, and 17th best FPOE/Gm. 

Unfortunately, I’ve only got data for the first 2 playoff games, but Ja’Marr Chase boasts a 0.678 WOPR & 1.271 RACR that’s tied with Cooper Kupp.

Chase’s season-long stats:
-0.61 WOPR (No. 15)
-0.9 RACR (No. 28)
-13.3 EP/G (No. 26)
-4.7 FPOE/G (No. 4)

8 Chase comps – @RotoViz pic.twitter.com/pHnu7NUvQQ

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) February 7, 2022

Without DeAndre Hopkins, the Rams limited Christian Kirk to a team-leading 51 receiving yards on six receptions. Since the Cardinals came in with limited weapons in the passing game, they lacked the elite option at receiver. Against the Buccaneers and Tom Brady, the Rams fed the ball to Mike Evans for 16 targets with eight receptions, 119 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Unfortunately, they didn’t have Chris Godwin, so Rob Gronkowski finished second on the team with 85 receiving yards on four receptions and 11 targets. Brady also fed Leonard Fournette the ball in the receiving game as Fournette reeled in all nine targets for 56 receiving yards. 

Then in game three, the Rams held the 49ers pass catchers in check, with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk hauling in four receptions. Samuel finished with 72 receiving yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Aiyuk boasted 69 receiving yards. Stud tight end George Kittle caught a touchdown, yet only two receptions for 27 receiving yards. 

Although it’s a small sample, Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense fits similarly to the Buccaneers, with arguably more healthy weapons at this time. No, we’re not saying Joe Burrow ends up as the next elite quarterback like Brady. Mostly, we’re comparing offensive situations and how the Bengals can win their matchups. Overall, the Bengals will likely struggle on the ground and thus will need to attack through the air with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. 

Bengals X-Factors

We also want to monitor C.J. Uzomah’s knee injury, but it sounds like he’ll play in the Super Bowl. Uzomah produced efficiently, with 13 receptions on 14 targets for 135 receiving yards and one touchdown. Amongst pass-catchers (WR/TE) with at least ten targets, Uzomah ranked 2nd behind Deebo Samuel with a 1.849 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR). Unfortunately, we only have advanced data for the first two playoff weeks, but that indicates Uzomah efficiently converted his air yards into receiving production. 

The other X-Factor includes the Bengals’ offensive line and protecting Joe Burrow, who got sacked 11 times in the playoffs. That aligned with Burrow’s season-long 51 sacks (No. 1) and 8.9% sack rate (No. 5). Meanwhile, the Rams recorded the third-most sacks (50) with the 5th-highest sack rate at 7.4%. If the Bengals can protect Joe Burrow, we could see two talented offenses go at it. Although we’re used to Burrow connecting with Chase and Higgins on deep plays, watch for Burrow connecting on quick passes with the Rams pass rush. 

Rams Offense vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals proved they’re no slouch and much improved. They allowed the 5th-most passing yards per game (248.4) yet the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game (102.5). That’s slightly improved from 2020 after allowing the 19th-most passing yards (241.2) and the 4th most rushing yards (148) per game. Overall, the Bengals’ defense allowed 389.2 total yards in 2020 to 350 in 2021. 

The Rams’ offense proved quite prolific, with just under 400 total yards per game (399.7) in the playoffs. That’s even better than their season-long average of 372 total yards per game. Like the Bengals, the Rams typically controlled the possession time, which makes sense given their playoff success to this point. 

Matthew Stafford Versus The Bengals

Like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford produced efficiently with 9.1 YPA throughout the playoffs compared to 8.1 (No. 3) in the regular season. Even the 7.8 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 3) and +7.6 Production Premium (No. 3) aligned with the efficiency. As noted earlier, the Bengals allowed 248.4 pass yards per game with 7.2 YPA and 7.1 AY/A. Stafford should continue to thrive with a healthy Cooper Kupp and surging Odell Beckham Jr. 

Rams Running Backs Versus The Bengals

The miraculous return of Cam Akers from the Achilles injury should give us reasons for optimism. However, Akers shared the rushing attempts in two of three games with brutal efficiency. The Rams also haven’t involved their backs with a measly target share outside of the Wild Card game. However, context matters, and Stafford only threw 17 passes that game. 

Although the Bengals rush defense improved in 2021, they gave up 127 total yards on 18 opportunities to Josh Jacobs, then 128 total rushing yards on 24 attempts against the Titans. Against Kansas City, the Bengals allowed 101 rushing yards between Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, plus four receptions and 34 receiving yards combined. That said, either Akers or Sony Michel could garner rushing production against the Bengals. However, monitor the shoulder injury for Akers, who may have a reduced and risky role in the Super Bowl.

Sean McVay also noted Darrell Henderson could return for the Super Bowl after dealing with a sprained MCL. That would make the Rams backfield even messier, but we expect one back to handle most of the work, which might be the healthier one in Michel. 

Rams Pass-Catchers Versus The Bengals

Like the Bengals, the target tree filters through Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., and an occasional third pass-catcher in Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. Unfortunately, Robert Woods suffered a season-ending injury, but Beckham stepped up. Kupp continued to thrive and feast against opposing defenses in the playoffs. It seems logical to bet on most prop bets involving Kupp, whether for scoring touchdowns or receiving yardage. Like Ja’Marr Chase, the sexy Super Bowl MVPs would be Chase and Kupp. 

Beckham popped against the 49ers for the first 100-yard game since Week 6 of the 2019 season. He consistently held a healthy target share of 21% to 24%, but Kupp demands the most looks. Higbee presents an unexciting option with less efficiency than C.J. Uzomah. However, Higbee’s 0.447 WOPR ranked better than Uzomah’s 0.427, although Uzomah bests him with a 1.849 RACR versus Higbee at 0.96 in the first two playoff games. 

Rams X-Factors

Kendall Blanton hauled in all five targets for 57 receiving yards against the 49ers since Tyler Higbee left with a knee injury. If Higbee misses, Blanton looks like an X-Factor for the Rams. However, the tight end spot for the Rams hasn’t produced consistently. 

Interestingly, Van Jefferson finished 3rd in Air Yards & Air Yards Share in Week 13 behind Cooper Kupp & Odell Beckham Jr. 👀🤔

Week 7-12, Jefferson edged Kupp in AY (509-472) & AY% (31.6% – 29.3%) but hadn’t converted those AY w/ a 0.627 RACR compared to Kupp’s 1.237. pic.twitter.com/iZdg2xUBV5

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 7, 2021

Van Jefferson presents another wild card for the Rams. From Week 7-14, Jefferson totaled the 13th-most Air Yards (621) with the 29th best WOPR (0.457) and the 19th-most fantasy points total (90.8). Unfortunately, Jefferson struggled with converting those air yards into receiving production, evidenced by the 0.673 RACR during Week 7-14. 

Super Bowl Range of Outcomes

With a 48.5 over/under, the Rams are a 4.5 point favorite. The implied points total for each team includes 26.5 for the Rams and 22 for the Bengals. In the playoffs, the Rams scored 30 or more in two games. The same trend applies to the Bengals with 24 or more in two games, not including the overtime contest against Kansas City. However, the Rams will play in their home stadium, like Tampa Bay, in 2021. 

It’s within the range of outcomes, where both teams start slow and rely on their defense. On the flip side, these prolific offenses could thrive and have us glued to the screens to avoid missing a second. Root for the underdog in the Bengals with their surging core of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. 

One final notable fun fact. A quarterback won the Super Bowl MVP in nine of the past 12 years. Julian Edelman (WR), Von Miller (LB), and Malcolm Smith (LB) serve as the only non-quarterbacks. Before 2010, receivers won the MVP in three of the six games in Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Deion Branch. 

If the Rams win, it’s within the range of outcomes for Cooper Kupp to win the Super Bowl MVP to cap off a truly elite season of 145 receptions (No. 1), 32% target share (No. 1), and 1,947 receiving yards (No. 1). Kupp’s 1.19 RACR ranked 9th. He scored 433.5 total fantasy points in PPR leagues, almost 100 more than Davante Adams (344.3). If we only include Kupp’s 17-game production, his 416.2 fantasy points bested all receivers since 2000, about 30 more points than Antonio Brown in 2013 and 2014. 

Ja’Marr Chase is (+1800) to win Super Bowl MVP 🐅

📸: @Bengals pic.twitter.com/AtjucyHNQU

— PFF Bet (@PFF_Bet) February 6, 2022

Ja’Marr Chase had an equally elite season for a rookie with the most receiving yards at 1,425 in a 17-game season, 25 yards more than Justin Jefferson in 2020. Chase edged Odell Beckham Jr. in total fantasy points as a rookie with 310.6 for Chase and 297 for Beckham. Like Kupp, Chase could buck the trend of a Super Bowl MVP being a receiver instead of a quarterback if the Bengals win. 

My Pick

I like the Bengals as the underdog winning by an Evan McPherson FG.

Bengals 31-28