Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads south-east from Northern California to the Phoenix, Arizona, area for the WM Phoenix Open, an event that dates back to 1932. We have 132 players competing this week, and after round 2 on Friday, we will see the top 65 players plus ties advance to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $8.2M to be won this week, the winner banks $1.476M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are huge featuring Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -17.6, and I would expect something similar this week. The -28 tournament record is held by both Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia in 2013 and 2001, respectively. Place bets on golfers this week who are strong on approach, solid tee to green, sound off the tee, are good around greens, and hit a long ball from the tee blocks.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the WM Phoenix Open this week:
1. Is it too tempting to not bet Jon Rahm? Whenever the world’s top golfer is playing I’m usually all over him, he has a strong track record at this event finishing no lower than T16 in six starts and his best effort was a T5 in 2015.
2. Is Hideki Matsuyama too good not to bet? Yes. He has won here twice already in 2017 and 2016, and he also has two wins in his last four starts, everything looks really good for the Japanese superstar this week. I couldn’t feature him over Rahm or Thomas below, but he’s a good betting option, as well.
3. Which player will entertain us the most on hole 16? There is perhaps no more enjoyable hole to watch in golf than TPC Scottdale’s par 3 16th as 20,000 people surround it and go crazy for each shot. It’s hard to say which player will give us the goods this year, but a few of them will certainly make us laugh and astound us.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+600) – He’s consistently spot on with every club in his bag, and the results prove it as the #1 ranked player in the world has finished T5 to T16 here in six starts, and Rahm has eight top 9’s in his last twelve starts including winning the U.S. Open last year. I also like the narrative that he went to Arizona State University, and still lives in Arizona, so he’s extra invested in winning this local tournament. I think you can bet him to win, finish top 5, and top 10 – if you want to be tight with your money just bet him to finish top 10 and that should work out quite well.
Justin Thomas (+1000) – Thomas has five top 5’s in his last eight starts, and with strokes gained: approach being the most important key stat on this course, I love me some JT since he has been one of the very best approach players in the world for years now. He has four straight top 17’s at this venue – one of them was a 3rd in 2019 and in 2020 he earned a T3. Almost everything points to Thomas having a big week, and I think betting him to win, finish top 5, or top 10 makes too much sense.
Avoid: Daniel Berger (+2500) – I really respect how good of a player Berger is but he has missed the cut here in two of the past three years and he had to withdraw from Pebble Beach last week due to a back injury. He could still withdraw at some point this week, or could bow out after the event starts. He has my attention most weeks, but not this one.
+2600 to +5000
Louis Oosthuizen (+3500) – I’m very glad to see that Oosthuizen has committed to playing this week as we haven’t seen him since last November. He has competed here just twice but had a T11 last year and a solo 3rd in 2017, so he clearly likes this course and can handle it with ease. He had seven top 8’s last year and three of them were either runner-ups or co-runner-ups. He could show some rust this week, but I’m betting that his game is in fine shape and he will make a spectacular 2022 debut. I think betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 is the way to go, it just depends on how much risk you can afford to take on.
Seamus Power (+4000) – Power has been lights out since last April with eight top 9’s including winning the Barbasol Championship, and he has another six top 19’s since last Spring. He can beat you every which way, and when something isn’t working too well, there’s another part of his game that’s strong and he rolls with it. His last five starts have gone for a T4, T15, T3, T14, and a T9, so you can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 depending on how bullish you are on the talented Irishman.
Avoid: Tony Finau (+3500) – I really like Finau as a person and a professional golfer, but he only has one top 10 in his last ten starts and his putter is not too good at all as he keeps bleeding strokes on the short grass. He finished runner-up here two years ago, but he missed the cut three straight years prior, and I just don’t trust him enough right now to make a wager on Tony.
+5100 to +10000
Denny McCarthy (+10000) – With five top 15’s in his last six starts, McCarthy is officially in the zone as an athlete right now. He’s one of the very best putters on the PGA Tour and his short game is quite solid also. He has played here three times and his best finish is a T33, but I suspect that he will crush that this week and finish in the top 20 – that’s how I would bet him also.
Aaron Wise (+6500) – Wise shook off the rust two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open where he missed the cut after not playing on the PGA Tour since last November. Prior to this year’s start though, he had seven straight top 26’s including a T5 at THE CJ CUP in a fairly elite field. He’s a superb ball-striker and has a good short game to match, so what I’m trying to say is that he’s a solid all-around player. He’s still getting the hang of this course as he missed the cut two years ago, finished T66 last year, and I believe he will take a big step forward this week to finish top 30. I think betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 is very calculated, just don’t venture into top 10 territory with him this week.
Avoid: Abraham Ancer (+5500) – He had a T8 last week at the Saudi International on the European Tour but we don’t have strokes gained data to see how Ancer got it done, plus he could be a tad jet-lagged all of this week after coming back. He hasn’t been playing to his DNA since early November of last year and his putter has been giving him fits over his last three measured tournaments played. He has only played here once missing the cut three years ago – wait for him to warm up again before betting him.
+11000 and higher
Nate Lashley (+15000) – With a T3 and a T17 here over the last two years and approach stats that resemble Rahm’s, Lashley looks like an interesting target for this week. He came in T28 last week at Pebble Beach thanks to gaining 2.97 strokes ball-striking, and if he can keep the momentum going, he could finish top 20 here for the third consecutive year. A top 20 or top 30 wager holds some appeal to me this week, just don’t put down a ton of coin on him though.
Nick Taylor (+15000) – Taylor has finished no worse than T41 over his last five starts including a T16 last week where he gained strokes across the board. He doesn’t have the greatest course history here so it’s a bit of a recent form versus past results kind of conversation to have, but I think betting him to finish top 30 or top 40 is perfectly fine.
Avoid: Cam Davis (+13000) – He has two missed cuts in his last five starts, a T10 at the Tournament of Champions in a small field, a T27 two starts ago, and he had a T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. He’s also not very accurate off the tee blocks, so he could find himself up against random rocks or cactus plants if he’s not careful. This will be his first time competing here too, so that’s a slight knock against the Aussie also. There are better tracks for Davis’ raw talent and I advise you to wait for those opportunities to come along.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
