Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour had two stops in Florida (WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play) and the Dominican Republic (Corales Puntacana Championship) last week, but we will now see it shift to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open – an event that has existed for 100 years now! We have 144 players competing this week and will see the top 65 plus ties after round 2 on Friday advance to round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday.
There’s $8.6M on the line this week, the winner receives $1.548M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. TPC San Antonio – The Oaks Course is 7,435 yards long, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass and average 6,400 square feet. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten editions is -12.9, so the course proves to be a challenge during some years, especially the windy ones which Texas is famous for strong breezes. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid putters, especially on Bermudagrass, are strong around greens with wedges, have a sound approach game, can hit a long ball, and are tee to green specialists.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Valero Texas Open this week:
1. Which players have gained the most strokes total at this event over the last five editions? The top players at this tournament since 2016 in terms of strokes gained total, including Matt Wallace (4 rounds), Jordan Spieth (8 rounds), Lucas Glover (8 rounds), Gary Woodland (4 rounds), Corey Conners (12 rounds), Charley Hoffman (20 rounds), Patton Kizzire (4 rounds), Kevin Chappell (14 rounds), Brandt Snedker (12 rounds), and Branden Grace (12 rounds).
2. Will wind play a factor this week? There looks to be some wind around the San Antonio area this week, but nothing to be overly concerned about. Don’t worry about trying to bet on “wind specialists” since wind stats are hard to buy into as there are many variables involved and it’s hard to quantify.
3. Will a PGA Tour star win this week? Not many stars have won here over the years, at least on this course in particular, but Texas native, Jordan Spieth, was victorious last year, and Adam Scott won here in 2010 – the first year that TPC San Antonio played host. There are a few stars who could hoist the trophy this week including Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth could go back to back, Hideki Matsuyama could shine, and there are a few other stars/borderline stars who are capable also.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Rory McIlroy (+750) – The class of the field has only competed here once in his illustrious career but made the most of it with a runner-up finish 9 years ago in 2013. McIlroy’s top 18 streak got to nine in a row and would have been ten at THE PLAYERS Championship, but he lost 4.47 strokes putting which cost him a lot in the standings. His game is solid throughout and he intentionally took off last week’s WGC event to play this week in preparation for next week’s Masters and an opportunity to complete the career grand slam. I think you can bet him to win, finish top 5, and finish top 10 and you should win in at least two of those wagers.
Abraham Ancer (+2200) – Ancer made a statement last week at the match play event with a 5th place finish thanks to very strong putting, and that’s the biggest key stat to focus on this week. His results here have kept improving with a T58 in 2018, a T42 in 2019, and a T23 last year, and I expect that trend to continue this week. Betting him to finish top 10 is a calculated risk, or head into top 20 if you want to be a lot more conservative.
Avoid: Corey Conners (+1800) – It’s hard to say how much energy Conners has left in the tank this week after last week’s marathon match play tournament where he finished 3rd – beating Dustin Johnson to earn the honor. He won his only PGA Tour event here in 2019 and followed that up with a T14 last year, so the course history and good vibes are with him this week. If he is rested and ready to go, I expect a top 20 at least, but he could also falter and finish outside the top 40 – hard to say based on the current state of his body and mind.
+2600 to +5000
Maverick McNealy (+3500) – He played quite well last week at the match play event going 2-0-1 and still missed out on the sweet sixteen to finish 17th – tough break for the young player on the rise. McNealy has seven top 30’s in his last ten starts and has a fairly balanced golf game including being an excellent putter as he gained 5.55 strokes on the field last week. I think you can easily bet him to finish top 30 this week or bet him to finish top 20 if you want to be more aggressive.
Adam Hadwin (+4000) – Hadwin has been superb over his last two starts with a T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T7 in his most recent start at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago where he gained strokes across the board. He has gone cut-T72-T23 at this tournament, and I expect to see him inside the top 20 this week – that’s how I would bet him also.
Avoid: Bryson DeChambeau (+2800) – He’s a bit of a wild card this week given his injury concern and he has played here twice in his career with two missed cuts in 2016 and 2017. He had a terrible showing last week at the match play where everything was bad except for his putter and finished 58th out of 64 golfers. He hasn’t been good since last September, and I would wait on Bryson before laying down money on him.
+5100 to +10000
Charley Hoffman (+7500) – Hoffman has been an absolute beast at this tournament over the years with the win in 2016, two 2nds over the last two editions, and he has ten top 13’s here since 2008! He has been lousy lately though, so will recent form or course history reveal itself this week? Hard to say, but I think he’s worth a top 20 or top 30 bet and just hope that history repeats itself.
Kevin Streelman (+6500) – We didn’t see Streelman compete here last year, but he had two straight top 8’s in 2019 and 2018 and has five top 19’s in his last seven looks here. He earned a T7 at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago and has three top 22’s in his last four starts, so everything seems to be well aligned for Kevin this week. I think you can bet him to finish top 10, top 20, or top 30 depending on how bullish you are on Streelz this week.
Avoid: Takumi Kanaya (+10000) – Don’t let his 9th place finish last week impress you as he lost 6.75 strokes ball-striking and his only saving grace was his around the green play as he gained 6.17 strokes which is uncharacteristic of him. He has played here before, and unless his short game is all-world again this week, there’s a good chance he will be done on Friday after round 2.
+11000 and higher
Beau Hossler (+14000) – Hossler has three top 20’s in his last six starts including a 3rd at Pebble Beach and a T20 earlier this month at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has played weekend golf here over the last three editions and had a T36 three years ago. I think he will get inside the top 30, but he’s a risky bet just like all others in this range.
David Lipsky (+14000) – He has three top 26’s in his last seven starts including a T14 at The American Express in January, but his stats are hit or miss. He hasn’t competed here before so he comes with added risk, but might be worth a top 30 wager if you can find a taker.
Avoid: Aaron Rai (+20000) – It wasn’t too long ago when Rai was riding high, but over his last four starts he has two missed cuts and his best finish is a T61. His great ball-striking has left his body for now, and I don’t think we will see it return for at least a few weeks yet.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
