Fantasy Baseball: Must-Have Hitters for 2022
With the talks about narrowing down the player pool, we’ll look at hitters I’m actively targeting in redraft leagues. Last time, we looked at five must-have pitchers for 2022, and now we examine five must-have hitters. These hitters have varying ADPs, and they should be available throughout redraft leagues, even slightly ahead of their ADP. Let’s state the case for these must-have hitters for 2022 fantasy baseball leagues.
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Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
After Bryan Reynolds flashed as a rookie in 2019, I believed in a bounceback in 2021 with a down 2020 season. Reynolds crushed last season with 24 home runs, five stolen bases, and over 180 runs plus RBI with a .302 batting average. According to the Razzball Player Rater, Reynolds ranked 41st overall.
Reynolds possesses skills to drool over, evidenced by the 25.6% LD%, 87.8% Z-Contact%, and 10.4% Barrel% in 2021. He uses the high BABIP approach (.345) versus a career BABIP of .346 to maintain a higher batting average. Overall, Reynolds remains a quality hitter contributing in all five rotisserie categories as an outfielder around pick 100. It’s worth targeting Reynolds even earlier, around pick 75.
Willy Adames (SS – MIL)
Outside the park factor concerns in Tampa Bay for hitters, the Brewers helped Willy Adames adjust his swing to unlock the potential. With the Rays in 2021, Adames posted a .197 batting average, five home runs, and one stolen base with a .625 OPS. The 50.6% FB% for Adames came with a quality 14.8% Barrel%.
Then with the Brewers, Adames totaled 20 home runs with four stolen bases, a .285 batting average, and .887 OPS. Adames’ batted ball profile notably changed with a healthy 24.1% LD% and 37.5% FB%. Although the Barrel% dipped to 10.3%, Adames optimized the launch angle to not so many flyballs.
Adames didn’t just improve the batted ball profile, but the plate discipline improved with a 70.1% Z-Contact% and 62.4% Contact% with the Rays. Then with the Brewers, Adames’ Z-Contact% and Contact% jumped nearly 10% for both.
Adames’ 2022 Outlook
Willy Adames and Dansby Swanson serve as the end of a shortstop tier where I target the position. Expect Adames to continue the success with the Brewers in 2022. Adames will bat towards the top of the lineup as a five-category contributor and one of my must-have hitters at shortstop.
Nathaniel Lowe (1B – TEX)
The once Rays prospect Nathaniel Lowe found a home for a full-time role with the Rangers. In 2021, Lowe totaled 18 home runs, nearly 150 runs plus RBI (147), eight stolen bases, and a .264 batting average in 642 plate appearances. With any lefty hitter, we must check the splits. Interestingly, Lowe performed nearly identical against lefties with a .754 OPS and 112 wRC+ versus a .780 and 116 wRC+ against righties.
Lowe compiles counting stats with the decent 85.4% Z-Contact% and 79.1% Contact%, yet a 54.5% GB%. That said, Lowe posted an above-average Barrel% at 9.5% in 2021, with maximum exit velocities in the top 10% of the league. With that high GB%, Lowe ranked 83rd with a 93 mph exit velocity on FB/LD.
Lowe’s 2022 Outlook
The Rangers added Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Mitch Garver to bolster the lineup in front of Nathaniel Lowe. The BAT X projects Lowe for 18 home runs, 73 runs, 63 RBI, and four stolen bases with a .254 batting average. Lowe remains a compiler of counting stats with a safe floor, plus above-average exit velocities, even though he rocks a high GB%. Target Lowe as a corner infielder in 15-team leagues.
Randal Grichuk (OF – COL)
With the Blue Jays, Randal Grichuk looked like the fourth outfielder. Although that’s not an awful spot to be in on a quality offense, we want regular or expected playing in deeper leagues. In 2021, Grichuk posted a .241 batting average with 22 home runs, 59 runs, and 81 RBI.
Grichuk struggled in plate discipline with below-average contact rates before 2021, not including 2020. We probably should include 2020 since the overall Contact% improved that continued into 2021. Although Grichuk’s improved Z-Contact% of 90.5% in 2021 versus a career of 84.5% doesn’t automatically translate into production, it’s positive to see the strikeout rate improve. In 2020 and 2021, Grichuk posted a 21% strikeout rate compared to a career 26.5% strikeout rate.
Throughout Grichuk’s career, he averaged an 11.6% Barrel% with an 8.5% Barrel% (51st-percentile) in 2021. The raw power exists, evidenced by Grichuk’s 113.8 mph maximum exit velocity (91st-percentile). Hopefully, Grichuk leans more into the first half of 2021 versus the second half, given the rolling expected wOBA. According to EV Analytics Park Factors, Coors Field ranked fifth in Home Run and first in BABIP. Grichuk’s power will play almost anywhere, and the park factor adds to that, plus the potential batting average.
Grichuk’s 2022 Outlook
The updated projections for the BAT X expect Randal Grichuk to hit 26 home runs, 65 runs, 70 RBI, and two stolen bases with a .261 batting average. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Grichuk hasn’t posted a batting average above .245 since 2015. In the Main Event leagues on NFBC, Grichuk had a 226 ADP through 12 drafts. That’s a jump of over 100 picks since Grichuk’s ADP sat around pick 343 before the trade to Colorado. The offensive environment and role appear more positive for Grichuk in 2022, with the power and improving plate discipline skills making him a must-have hitter.
Yoshi Tsutsugo (1B/OF – PIT)
In Yoshi Tsutsugo‘s MLB career before going to the Pirates, it’s safe to say he struggled, evidenced by the eight home runs, 34 runs, 31 RBI, and .181 batting average in 303 plate appearances. Then Tsutsugo went to the Pirates and garnered regular playing time. Tsutsugo ended with eight home runs, 20 runs, and 25 RBI with a .268 batting average in 144 plate appearances.
So what changed? Tsutsugo’s Barrel% jumped from 6.4% to 10.5% in Pittsburgh. Although the contact rates looked similar before the trade, Tsutsugo showed a slightly more aggressive approach with a 45.5% Swing% that jumped from 41.6% (2020 to the early parts of 2021). Unsurprisingly, when the contact quality improved, Tsutsugo’s success followed.
Tsutsugo’s Splits
It’s a small sample, but Tsutsugo also performed decently against lefties in Pittsburgh with a .841 OPS, .351 wOBA, and 120 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances. That’s better versus 2020 with a .781 OPS, .342 wOBA, and 122 wRC+ with the Rays in 43 plate appearances.
Before the move to Pittsburgh, Tsutsugo struggled in the small sample of 20 plate appearances against lefties with a .367 OPS, .175 wOBA, and nine wRC+. Hopefully, Tsutsugo builds upon the strong finish to 2021 as a must-have sleeper in 2022. Tsutsugo also lowered the pull rate and used a more balanced approach with a 35.8% Pull% and 34.7% Oppo% with the Pirates. The pull remained nearly identical at 34.7%, but the 27.7% Oppo% improved in 2020-2021 before Pittsburgh.
Tsutsugo’s 2022 Outlook
In Draft Champions leagues, Yoshi Tsutsugo had an ADP around pick 339. Even in the NFBC Vegas Main Event leagues, Tsutsugo’s ADP barely moved to 332. Fortunately, Tsutsugo shouldn’t lose playing time with other Pirates bats and projects to bat fourth behind Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes. The projection systems seem wary about Tsutsugo building upon the late-season success, evidenced by the BAT X expecting 16 home runs, 50 runs, 55 RBI, and one stolen base with a .225 batting average. Yes, it’s true that two Pirates hitters land as must-have hitters for 2022.
