The Valspar Championship
Preview for the Valspar Championship: It’s no Players Championship, but the Valspar Championship still features some quality golfers and the big storyline is that Sam Burns is trying to win this event for the third consecutive year. This tournament has only been around since 2000 when John Huston won the inaugural edition by three strokes over Carl Paulson. The record at this event is held by Vijay Singh who shot a -18 in 2004 to win by five strokes other two other players. Winners of the Valspar Championship over the five past editions include Sam Burns in 2022, Sam Burns in 2021, there was no 2020 edition due to the pandemic, Paul Casey in 2019, Paul Casey in 2018, and Adam Hadwin in 2017.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $8.1M, the winner collects $1.458M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead Course) is 7,340 yards in length, is par 71, and the greens are poa trivialis OS. The winning score here over the past decade ranges from -7 to -17, so the track is a pretty good challenge for the pros in most years. Some core key stats to focus on this week, in order, include strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: putting, and driving accuracy percentage.
The field: We again have a 144-player field again this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 will move on to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. We have a decent field this week that is headlined by Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, and others. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B-.
DFS PGA Tour Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Valspar Championship. And check out our PGA Projections and Optimizer tools to make more informed player selections for your DFS DraftKings lineups. Best of luck this week!
Three questions that are relevant to the Valspar Championship this week:
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Justin Rose, Justin Suh, Justin Thomas, Taylor Moore, Wyndham Clark, Jordan Spieth, Taylor Montgomery, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, and Ben Griffin.
- Which 10 players does my custom model like the most? Justin Rose, Adam Hadwin, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Wyndham Clark, Keegan Bradley, Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai, and Nate Lashley.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes total (minimum 8 rounds) at this event since 2018? Sam Burns (16 rounds), Justin Thomas (8 rounds), Matthew NeSmith (8 rounds), Keegan Bradley (12 rounds), Rory Sabbatini (10 rounds), Stewart Cink (10 rounds), Adam Hadwin (12 rounds), Troy Merritt (10 rounds), Russell Knox (16 rounds), and Denny McCarthy (12 rounds).
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are (in no particular order) 15 DFS golf picks on DraftKings (DK), plus I also include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last five years, and add in some tasty data.
15 Players Who Are Either High-Potential or Solid-Value Plays This Week – Get Them Into Your DFS Lineups
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) – Can he three-peat this week?! It’s entirely possible given he seems to own this course now, but I am a bit concerned given the top stat for success here is a strong approach game and Burns has now lost almost 12 strokes on approach over his last three starts. He has been so solid here though and has absolutely dominated these greens gaining 30+ strokes putting since 2018 which is hard to believe! Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Won, 2021 – Won, 2019 – T30, and 2018 – T12.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – McCarthy was in the mix to win for a while last week at The Players, and settled for a T13. He has three top 14’s over his last five starts including a T4 at Pebble Beach – when his putter is smoking hot like it was at Pebble, he’s one of the best if not the best putter on the PGA Tour. He has done pretty well here including a top 10 four years ago, and if he gains around 6 strokes putting like he did that year, it’s possible he will register another solid finish. He gained 3.76 strokes ball striking last week, so if that carries over this week, he should fare quite well. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T48, 2021 – T39, and 2019 – T9.
Justin Suh (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Suh is playing the best golf of his career at the moment with two top 6’s over his last three starts including a T6 last week at The Players thanks to gaining strokes across the board. He also has three straight top 25’s, and five top 40’s over his last six starts – four of those were in difficult fields. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Brandon Wu (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – He’s playing solid golf right now with two straight top 20’s, and he had a T2 five starts ago at Pebble Beach where he gained 6.55 strokes ball striking. He had a T33 here last year in his only look at this tournament, and that was despite losing 4.07 strokes around the green. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T33.
David Lingmerth (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – I was as surprised as you were last week when Lingmerth shot his way up the standings at The Players to finish T6 on the back of solid ball striking and putting. That gives him two top 10’s over his last four starts and he has played weekend golf in four straight events. He has never missed the cut here either in four looks, and finished T27 in 2017. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T64.
Taylor Moore (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Moore has been playing sound golf since late January with three top 15’s and two other top 39’s including a T35 last week at The Players. He has a well-rounded game and should do much better than he did here a year ago as he missed the cut and lost 4.77 strokes via his short game. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Cut.
Aaron Rai (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – It was a true pleasure watching Rai ace the 17th last week, and it helped propel him to a T19 finish at The Players – gaining 6.12 strokes ball striking doesn’t hurt either. His putter is really holding him back from success, but the last time he gained at least one stroke in the stat category he went on to finish T7 at the Houston Open last November. I also like that he finished T29 four starts ago at The Genesis Invitational since that was a strong field and he managed to gain 5.14 strokes ball striking there. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – JT actually played fairly well last week, but he was dreadful on the greens losing almost 5 strokes to the field, and finished T60 as a result. He did have two top 5’s and four other top 25’s prior to The Players, and he was fabulous here a year ago finishing T3 thanks to gaining 7.37 strokes on approach and 3.04 putting. He has four top 18’s here in five starts, and should land another one this week. The potential for Thomas to win on Sunday is there as long as his short game shows up. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T3 and 2021 – T13.
Adam Hadwin (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Hadwin turned in a good performance last week at The Players with a T13 thanks to solid ball striking and around the green play, but he has now lost 6.5 strokes putting over his last three starts, so he needs the flat stick to pick it up like it usually does. He had a T10 four starts ago at the Phoenix Open and had a T7 seven starts ago at the Houston Open. Most notably, he won here in 2017, was T7 here last year, and also had a T12 five years ago – so he’s quite comfortable on this course. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T7, 2021 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T12, and 2017 – Won (had to include his win here)
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – Not so bad play from Spieth over his last four starts with three top 19’s and two of those were top 6’s including his T4 two starts ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has played well at this event as he won in 2015, was T7 in 2013, and has four top 20’s in five looks. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2018 – Cut.
Ben Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Griffin is a steady player as he has finished in the teens, 20’s, or 30’s in eight out of his last nine starts. He’s quite strong with his short game gaining more than 17 strokes in the state category over his last three starts, and he can pop in the other stat categories also. He gained 5.79 strokes around the green last week en route to a T35 at The Players. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Ben Martin (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – He had a T5 two starts ago at The Honda Classic, a T13 in the start before that at Pebble Beach, he’s coming off a T54 last week, and has four top 32’s over his last seven starts. He hasn’t played here in five years, but his record keeps improving with each start as he went cut-T52-T46 between 2014 and 2018, so it’s entirely possible we see a top 40 this week from Martin. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T46.
Tyler Duncan (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Duncan locked down a solo 3rd at The Honda Classic two starts ago, is coming off a T54 last week at The Players gaining 6.47 strokes ball striking, and had a T33 three starts ago at The Genesis Invitational. He has two consecutive top 40’s here over the last two years including a T25 last year when he gained strokes in all of the major stat categories. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T25, 2021 – T39, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – Cut.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – We all know about his high upside, so in an average field like this I’m looking for players who can win and Fitzpatrick certainly fits the profile. He has been shaky over his last five starts though with three missed cuts, but also had a T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T29 at the Phoenix Open, and prior to that he had four straight top 15’s. He was outstanding here last year finishing top 5 and was solid throughout his bag. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T5 and 2018 – Cut.
Kramer Hickok (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – I couldn’t really find a $6K player that I like, so I went with Hickok since he’s just $300 removed from the range. Hickok finished T14 two starts ago at The Honda Classic, had a T29 at The Genesis Invitational, and is coming off a T44 last week. He’s also 3 for 3 here and his best finish came just last year when he finished T33 thanks to superb putting. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T33, 2021 – T57, and 2019 – T46.
