Golf Betting Tips and Picks
One last stop in Florida this week to complete the four-tournament swing, and the PGA Tour shifts from THE PLAYERS Championship to the Valspar Championship. This event has been played since 2000 with just two installments getting canceled, the 2020 one because of the pandemic and in 2001 due to the September 11th attacks. We have 156 players competing this week, and the top 65 plus ties after round 2 will move on to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $7.8M available to be won this week, the winner secures $1.404M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is 7,340 yards in length, is a par 71, and the small greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten editions is -11.1, so the course is a challenge. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid on approach, strong tee to green, crafty from around the green, hit an accurate ball from the tee blocks, and are good at putting on Bermudagrass surfaces.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Valspar Championship this week:
1. Stay off of the big players from last week? I’m hesitant to bet the big players who competed last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and went all four rounds as there could be some fatigue this week. Those who missed the cut are actually more interesting to me as they should be fresher and more motivated to play well this week and collect a paycheck.
2. Which golfers have gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? Strokes gained: total is perhaps the most important stat to look at from week to week since it takes into account a golfer’s ability to gain strokes across all of the stat categories. The top five players in this category over their last 24 rounds are Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa.
3. How much does course history matter this week? It looks like that course history does play a factor this week as there are patterns with golfers playing good or bad here, but first-timers can do fine as lots of Valspar rookies have done well in their first look including Hovland who had a T3 here a year ago.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Justin Thomas (+900) – JT is always a safe bet almost every week as he’s one of the best ball-strikers in the world and when his putter is cooperating with him, he often finishes top 10. He already has three top 8’s this year in five starts and has a good track record at this event with three top 18’s in four starts including a T13 last year when he lost 6.45 strokes putting, so if he’s field average this week, there’s a good likelihood he will win. Betting Thomas to win, finish top 5, or top 10 makes too much sense to me depending on how much risk and reward you’re up for.
Viktor Hovland (+900) – The young stud has won three times since last October and has three straight top 9’s including a co-runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago. As previously mentioned above, Hovland was a rookie here last year and finished T3 thanks to gaining strokes across the board including 4.02 on the greens which is a good sign since putting is his second weakest area after his around the green play. You could bet him to win, but the safer plays of course is a top 5 or a top 10 finish.
Avoid: Jason Kokrak (+2200) – I really like all of the golfers in this range, but I’ll pick on Kokrak since he doesn’t have a top 15 since last November and his ball-striking results have been merely average over his last three outings. He has a great record at this event and could keep things rolling this week as well, but I’m more of a recent results type and don’t like what I’ve seen from him over his past six starts. Feel free to bet him if you’re really into past performance because the Valspar results are very much present for Kokrak.
+2600 to +5000
Abraham Ancer (+3500) – Accurate hitters tend to do well here and Ancer is one of the PGA Tour’s best, and the results here have been great for him with a T16 in 2018 and a solo 5th in 2021. He’s due for a top 10 finish and it could very well come this week on a course that fits his golf game quite well. Betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 works for me.
Keegan Bradley (+5000) – Had he not taken a two-stroke penalty for a ball-marking infraction and went +3 over his last two holes last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, he could have won but still finished 5th thanks to gaining 10.15 strokes ball-striking. He had a T11 two starts ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seems poised to do well this week as well given he finished sold 2nd last year. It’s hard to say which Bradley will show up this week, but as long as his putter is around field average then expect a high finish since he’s a superb ball-striker on a consistent basis. You could bet him to finish top 10 this week and do well, or go with a top 20 finish if you’re a bit hesitant.
Avoid: Gary Woodland (+5000) – Woodland had back-to-back T5’s before last week’s PLAYERS where he lost strokes across the board except for a small 0.25 gain on approach and missed the cut. He has missed the cut here three straight times and his best finish over his last six starts at the Valspar is a T42 which came six years ago. This isn’t the right event to bet Gary, so I would recommend holding off of him for now.
+5100 to +10000
Bubba Watson (+5500) – Watson had the tough wave time last week going off in the afternoon in round 1, but at least he made the cut unlike others including Morikawa who fell victim to the horrible weather at THE PLAYERS. He has four top 28’s here in his last five looks at the tournament including a T4 in 2019 and a 3rd in 2010 and has gained strokes in almost every category during that stretch. You can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, top 20, or even top 30 depending on how bullish you are on the hard-swinging lefty.
Adam Hadwin (+6000) – He won here in 2017 and should make some noise this week as he has been playing some good golf lately with three top 26’s in his last four starts including an impressive T9 last week at THE PLAYERS where his approach play and putting were solid. He has two top 12’s in the last four editions of the Valspar, and I like him as a top 20 bet this week, or move into top 30 territory if you want to play it extra safe.
Avoid: Cameron Tringale (+6500) – Tringale has been downright brutal off the tee and with his putter over his last two starts, and it has resulted in missed cuts – three in all over his last four starts. He did have a T3 here last year, but three straight missed cuts before that at the Valspar, and I think he will add a fourth if the driver and flat stick let him down again this week.
+11000 and higher
Patton Kizzire (+13000) – He has three top 32’s over his last four starts including a T10 at the Phoenix Open last month and he locked down a T22 at THE PLAYERS last week. A top 20 or a top 30 wager this week for Kizzire gets my approval, or if you could stay off of him if you’re concerned that his best finish is a T33 here in four starts.
Pat Perez (+11000) – Perez has five top 42’s in his last six starts including a T6 and a T9, and he has two top 30’s here over his last three appearances including a T7. I think the way to bet him this week is a top 30, but you could go lower if you’re optimistic about his play and mullet this week.
Avoid: Henrik Stenson (+18000) – Stenson has two missed cuts and a withdraw over his last three starts and the withdraw came last week at THE PLAYERS. He has played well here in the past when he was more in his prime, but he had a T63 a year ago and I expect more of the same this week if he manages to see weekend play.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
