Winners, Losers, and Takeaways
In a wild weekend of football, many fantasy managers got tricked or treated on Halloween. With a fuller slate of games after the silly bye week in Week 7, the injuries piled up as well. With some injuries and inactive players, some players benefitted as waiver wire pickups in Week 9. We watched the Justin Fields breakout game, the Tyler Lockett Trick or Treat edition, and the Jets running backs. The last part about the Jets running backs isn’t a typo, as we legitimately need to adjust our values given the recent uptick in opportunity.
Injuries to Monitor:
- Davante Adams tested positive for COVID-19 and didn’t clear to play in time for Thursday. Since Allen Lazard ended up as close contact, he missed Thursday’s game too. The questions surrounding the Packers involved who benefits or where do the opportunities go. In six games without Adams from 2018-2021, Aaron Jones averaged almost ten fantasy points more. The added fantasy production for Jones came from about twice as many targets and receiving yards.
- Robert Tonyan (knee) caught a long pass for 33 yards, then came down and grabbed his left knee area. Tonyan walked off the field to the sideline. Reports on Friday indicated that Tonyan tore his ACL, which ends his season. Don’t pick up a backup tight end on the Packers.
- Chase Edmonds went down for a brief moment, then came back in the game shortly. Thankfully, no injury updates on Edmonds, which should indicate he’s just fine.
- Jameis Winston (knee) left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and then the cart came to take him off the field. Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian filled in for Winston, and the Saints came away with the divisional win against the Buccaneers.
- Although it’s not injury-related with Calvin Ridley, it’s worth noting that Ridley posted he’s stepping away from the game for mental health reasons. Fantasy aside, focusing on his mental health is relevant to many of us in our current society. There are moments and decisions larger than football.
- T.Y. Hilton (concussion) will go through the concussion protocol. Hilton reeled in two catches for 16 receiving yards on five targets.
- Kyler Murray (ankle) suffered a sprained ankle on Thursday. Hopefully, the extra rest will help Murray heal up.
- Sam Darnold (concussion) took a hit in Sunday’s contest against the Falcons and suffered a concussion. Outside of that, Darnold struggled in the passing game.
- Damien Williams (knee) sustained a knee injury and left Sunday’s game against the 49ers. Khalil Herbert once again led the Bears backfield and showed that he’s the backup behind David Montgomery with upside.
- Jalen Reagor (ankle) suffered an ankle injury. Unfortunately, Reagor hasn’t contributed much, even though he rushed twice for 21 yards on Sunday.
- Jamaal Williams (thigh) ended up as a surprise inactive. The Lions have their bye week in Week 9, but Jermar Jefferson should be a top waiver wire add in deeper leagues if Williams’ thigh issue lingers. However, it’s understandable if fantasy managers can’t stash Jefferson through their bye week. In a blowout loss, Jefferson rushed twice for six yards and one touchdown. He also hauled in all four targets for 23 receiving yards and outproduced D’Andre Swift for fantasy purposes with the touchdown.
- James Robinson (heel) is dealing with a heel injury. Carlos Hyde benefitted from Robinson’s absence, especially in the receiving game with six receptions on eight targets for 40 receiving yards – second on the team on Sunday.
- Justin Jackson (quadriceps) is dealing with a quadriceps issue. After all the worries of Austin Ekeler’s hip injury coming into Sunday, Ekeler played and totaled 124 yards with one touchdown. However, Jackson showed a highlight play with a 75-yard run and finished with three carries for 79 rushing yards. If Ekeler ever misses time, Jackson looks like the priority backup to scoop up.
- Justin Jefferson left Sunday night’s game briefly into the medical tent but then returned shortly.
Update:
- Monday morning, Adam Schefter reported that Derrick Henry may have suffered a season-ending foot injury. With Darrynton Evans also on injured reserve, it could mean more playing time for Jeremy McNichols. The Titans involved McNichols a bit with a 10.8% (No. 20) target share, 18 (No. 18) receptions, and 170 (No. 12) receiving yards amongst running backs. They could also make a trade and add a running back too.
Titans’ RB Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury during Sunday’s 34-31 win over Indianapolis, sources reported ESPN. Henry is undergoing an MRI today to determine the full extent of the damage.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 1, 2021
Week 8 Highlights
A Game Without Davante Adams
In a game without Davante Adams, the running backs garnered the opportunities, particularly to Aaron Jones. On Thursday night, Jones led the Packers with 11 targets for a 29.7% target share. Also, Jones rushed 15 times for 59 rushing yards and one touchdown plus the seven receptions for 51 receiving yards. We love the elite usage, and A.J. Dillon’s increased role intrigued us.
Top-3 in targets for the Packers without Davante Adams
🔥Aaron Jones led the Packers with 11 targets for a 29.7% target share.
🧐Juwann Winfree finished 2nd with six targets. Never heard of Winfree tbh.
🙃Randall Cobb two TDs on three receptions on five targets for 15 yards. pic.twitter.com/ybTVA2INHx
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 29, 2021
Juwann Winfree (a player I’ve never heard of) finished second on the team with six targets for a 16.2% target share. Winfree hauled in four receptions and 30 receiving yards. However, old friend Randall Cobb appeared and scored two touchdowns on three receptions for 15 receiving yards. Hopefully, Adams returns soon because the Packers will need their top receiver against Kansas City next week. If Adams misses another week, then look for Jones to soak up the high usage, and Dillon’s role could remain primarily as a rusher.
Justin Fields Breakout Game
Outside of the fourth quarter, the Bears played it close with the 49ers with a 16-15 lead heading into the final quarter. Justin Fields broke out and rushed for 103 yards on ten carries and one rushing touchdown. Fields also threw for 175 passing yards with one pick and one touchdown. Fantasy managers drooled over the dual-threat ability of Fields heading in 2021, and it finally exploded in Week 8. In Week 6 and 7, Fields rushed for 43 and 38 yards, so it’s nice to see that trend continue with a massive fantasy performance.
Trick or Treat – Tyler Lockett Edition
After 159 receiving yards over the past five games, Tyler Lockett dominated on Halloween with 12 catches on 13 targets (54.2%) for 142 receiving yards. Some fantasy managers may have sat Lockett due to the recent inconsistencies with Geno Smith at quarterback. However, Lockett possesses the type of upside he displayed on Sunday as we ask ourselves Trick or Treat with Lockett.
Trick or Treat with Tyler Lockett
After 159 receiving yards over the past five games, Tyler Lockett dominated on Halloween with 12 catches on 13 targets (54.2%) for 142 receiving yards.
Geno Smith with an uber-efficient day with 8.1 YPA#Seahawks pic.twitter.com/Ev0o8PcODu
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 1, 2021
On a positive note, Smith provided efficient production and completed 20-of-24 attempts for 195 passing yards with 8.1 YPA and two touchdowns. If anything, it’s a nice treat with Lockett even though Smith likely can’t sustain this type of efficiency.
Two Receivers Dominated the Titans-Colts Game
Against the Colts, A.J. Brown hauled in ten of 11 targets for 155 receiving yards and one touchdown. No other Titans’ pass-catcher notched more than 33 yards. With no Julio Jones, Brown garnered a 33% target share with efficient production. After early-season struggles for Brown, he moves back into the WR1 group or at least a top-15 receiver for the rest of the season.
First catch goes for 6. 😏 @1kalwaysopen_
📺: Watch #TENvsIND on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/0OMb8hgId4
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 31, 2021
On the flip side, Michael Pittman Jr. matched Brown with ten receptions yet 86 receiving and two touchdowns. In a much higher volume passing day, Carson Wentz attempted 51 passes and targeted Pittman 15 times for a 29.4% target share. With T.Y. Hilton banged up and healthy, Pittman averages 10.8 targets in five games and only 3.7 in three other games played. Value Pittman as a WR2/3 with upside, especially in an offensive-friendly environment.
Week 8 Wonders
Jets Running Backs Rising
With Mike White at quarterback, the Jets running backs took a step up in opportunity and produced. Michael Carter led the Jets with 172 total yards and one touchdown. Carter rushed 15 times for 77 rushing yards and a touchdown then, hauled in nine of 14 for 95 yards. That’s a 28.6% target share for Carter with 49 total passes thrown combined between Mike White (45) and Josh Johnson (4).
% of routes run per dropback for #Jets #CINvsNYJ
Denzel Mims- 92%
Keelan Cole – 80%
Jamison Crowder- 78%
Michael Carter – 71% 🔥
Tyler Kroft – 55%
Elijah Moore – 45% 🙃
Ryan Griffin – 35%
Ty Johnson – 33%
Braxton Berrios – 31%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 31, 2021
Carter’s role increased in Week 7 with a 74.2% snap share and 104 total yards with a then season-high of nine targets. With back-to-back weeks where Carter’s opportunities increased, he should be valued as an RB2 moving forward. Let’s note that backup quarterback Mike White seems to favor the running backs, particularly with Carter over the past two games. Ty Johnson also hauled in five of six targets for 71 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Bengals.
We’ll have to monitor how their roles evolve when Zach Wilson returns. However, Wilson expects to miss a couple more weeks, which means let’s ride the wave with the Jets running backs for now. That’s something I never thought I’d say in 2021. Carter led the backfield with a 70.2% snap share, and Johnson performed efficiently on 28.6% of the snaps. Johnson may factor in more with a negative game script moving forward, similar to J.D. McKissic.
The WFT Backfield
With Antonio Gibson’s shin issue in previous weeks, fantasy managers should’ve stashed Jaret Patterson. J.D. McKissic’s role remained consistent over the past two weeks heading into Week 8 with 12 receptions on 16 targets. In Week 8 against the Broncos, McKissic led the team with 83 receiving yards with eight catches on eight targets.
Been stashing Jaret Patterson since the Antonio Gibson shin news. The preseason usage looked interesting with rushing/receiving work.
Rush/Rush Yards➡️Targets/Rec/Rec Yards
-Week 1: 10/40➡️4/4/30
-Week 2: 16/71➡️3/3/25 (1 TD)
-Week 3: 2/-1➡️6/3/15🔥93rd-percentile Dominator pic.twitter.com/hOCcFjRR9y
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 1, 2021
Meanwhile, Patterson rushed 11 times for 46 rushing yards. That’s something to monitor if Patterson eats into Gibson’s rushing share because we already know McKissic’s pass-catching role will remain steady and based on game script. Overall, we need to keep stashing Patterson, but it’ll look messy if it’s a three-back committee besides McKissic.
Elijah Mitchell & Deebo Samuel Dominance
For the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel dominated. Mitchell led the 49ers’ backs with 137 rushing yards and one touchdown on 18 carries. Once again, Mitchell didn’t factor into the receiving game with zero targets. Imagine if Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t take away two rushing touchdowns at the goal line on Sunday, or Mitchell would’ve put up the top running back performance of the day.
Meanwhile, Samuel hauled in six of nine targets for 171 receiving yards. Both Mitchell and Samuel are auto starts regardless of matchup. However, we also saw a mini-revival for Brandon Aiyuk, who caught four of seven for 45 receiving yards. Aiyuk landed as a Week 8 sleeper, but it’s hard to rely on Aiyuk until we see more consistency.
Week 8 Disappointments
Falcons Pass-Catchers
With a surprise inactive for Calvin Ridley, the Falcons’ offense struggled against the Panthers on Sunday. Ridley tweeted that he’s taking time away to focus on his mental health, and we wish him well during these past and upcoming days and weeks.
— CALVIN RIDLEY (@CalvinRidley1) October 31, 2021
It’s safe to wonder that Ridley’s absence will impact the Falcons pass-catchers, especially when Tajae Sharpe led the team with five receptions on six targets for 58 receiving yards. After Kyle Pitts smashed with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games, he only caught two of six targets for 13 receiving yards. Cordarrelle Patterson salvaged his day with 14 touches for 72 total yards and one touchdown. Outside of Patterson and Pitts, fantasy managers may want to temper expectations moving forward.
Panthers Pass-Catchers
Sam Darnold put up another awful day with 13-for-24 for 129 passing yards and no passing touchdowns. Although Darnold didn’t throw a pick, he targeted D.J. Moore eight times and Robby Anderson just once. The Panthers played a defensive-minded game and relied on the run game as Chuba Hubbard rushed 24 times for 82 rushing yards and one touchdown. Even Darnold added 66 yards on the ground. The Panthers dominated the time of possession with over 35 minutes compared to the Falcons under 25 minutes.
It’s something to monitor and makes sense if the Panthers focus on the run game since Darnold struggled the past three weeks with a YPA of five or fewer. That said, we could see quite a low floor for the Panthers receivers, similar to the Seahawks outside of Week 8, with Geno Smith at quarterback. We should continue to start Moore, but he’s fallen into the WR2 range instead of a borderline WR1.
Another Down Game For Mike Williams
After three straight dominant performances to begin the season, Mike Williams averaged 25.8 fantasy points with four touchdowns. Then Williams posted 11 receiving yards and 27 receiving yards with a 36.5 point performance in between. Well, in Week 8, the Chargers’ passing game struggled against the Patriots. The Patriots limited Williams to two catches on five targets for 19 receiving yards. Williams dealt with a knee issue a couple of weeks ago, so maybe that’s lingering into Week 8.
In games where Mike Williams and Justin Herbert thrived, Herbert boasted a YPA 8.0. Meanwhile, in games where both players labored, Herbert’s YPA ended up at 5.7.
Attempt to acquire Williams with that WR1 upside. pic.twitter.com/b2GhT4BqiW
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 1, 2021
Or there’s the narrative that the Patriots defended well and seemingly confused the Chargers as Justin Herbert went 18-for-35 with 223 passing yards with a pair of passing touchdowns and interceptions. It’s no surprise that in games where Herbert struggles, Williams didn’t perform well. In games where Williams and Herbert thrived, Herbert boasted a YPA 8.0. Meanwhile, in games where both players labored, Herbert’s YPA ended up at 5.7. Attempt to buy low on Mike Williams if fantasy managers have concerns since Williams possesses the week-winning type upside.