Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour has moved on from Florida after being there for the past four weeks to set up in Texas for the next two weeks starting with this week’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. This WGC match play tournament has been played on the PGA Tour since 1999 on multiple courses and in two different countries, the U.S. and Australia. This Dell-backed event has been played in Austin, Texas, since 2016, and this year marks its fifth edition as last year was canceled due to the pandemic. The field is just 64 players coming from the top 69 ranked golfers in the world – the top 16 players from each of the 16 foursomes will move onto Saturday, and the top 4 will compete on Sunday to see who finishes 1st to 4th.
There’s $12M on the line to be won this week, the winner gets a sweet injection of $2.16M into his bank account, and also gets 550 FedEx Cup points. Austin Country Club is a short but challenging old-school track that’s just 7,108 yards in length, is a par 71, and the small greens are Bermudagrass. Billy Horschel is the defending champion at this event, he beat Scottie Scheffler a year ago to earn his first victory here. You will want to bet on the golfers you think will first win their group of four, then will need to narrow the bracket down from the 16 to 8 to 4 to 2 and finally decide who you think will take it all on Sunday evening in the last match of the event. Look at your projections for the elite 8 golfers and final 4 golfers, and get as many of those golfers into your lineups as possible. This is one of the more difficult tournaments to predict, for example, Kevin Kisner was the 48th ranked player three years ago and ultimately won, so you might want to consider wagering less money than normal or play the Corales Puntacana Championship on DraftKings which has a normal tournament setup. Invest in golfers who are strong putters on Bermudagrass, accurate off the tee blocks, solid getting up and down around greens, strong on approach, and are sound from tee to green.
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Groupings are below
- Group #1 – Jon Rahm, Sebastian Munoz, Patrick Reed, and Cameron Young
- Group #2 – Collin Morikawa, Robert MacIntyre, Jason Kokrak, and Sergio Garcia
- Group #3 – Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka, and Cameron Tringale
- Group #4 – Patrick Cantlay, Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, and Seamus Power
- Group #5 – Scottie Scheffler, Ian Poulter, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood
- Group #6 – Justin Thomas, Luke List, Kevin Kisner, and Marc Leishman
- Group #7 – Xander Schauffele, Takumi Kanaya, Tony Finau, and Lucas Herbert
- Group #8 – Dustin Johnson, Mackenzie Hughes, Max Homa, and Matthew Wolff
- Group #9 – Bryson DeChambeau, Richard Bland, Talor Gooch, and Lee Westwood
- Group #10 – Louis Oosthuizen, Alex Noren, Paul Casey, and Corey Conners
- Group #11 – Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, and Justin Rose
- Group #12 – Billy Horschel, Min Woo Lee, Thomas Pieters, and Tom Hoge.
- Group #13 – Tyrrell Hatton, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Daniel Berger, and Si Woo Kim
- Group #14 – Joaquin Niemann, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Na, and Russell Henley
- Group #15 – Abraham Ancer, Bubba Watson, Webb Simpson, and Brian Harman
- Group #16 – Brooks Koepka, Erik Van Rooyen, Shane Lowry, and Harold Varner III
Three questions I have regarding the WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play this week:
1. Is this a good week to roll out shorter hitters? This track isn’t that long and shorter hitters have fared well here including Kevin Kisner who won in 2019 and was T2 in 2018, Billy Horschel won last year, and Jason Day won here in 2016. Driving accuracy is more important than distance this week.
2. Who has the “easiest” group to advance into the sweet sixteen? I’ll go with Jon Rahm’s group since Young is inexperienced, Reed is flailing, and Munoz is hit or miss.
3. Bet on individual matches or bet for the final outcomes? I recommend betting on individual matches or group betting since there are always a bunch of upsets in group play, but you may want to pick an outright winner or two and make other bets to keep things interesting throughout.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some non-outright bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+1200) – Round-robin opponents: Sebastian Munoz, Patrick Reed, and Cameron Young. I believe that world #1 Rahm should be able to move onto the sweet 16 with relative ease since his competition isn’t nearly as good as the other groups have and he has a decent record at this tournament including a runner-up in 2017.
Xander Schauffele (+2000) – Round-robin opponents: Takumi Kanaya, Tony Finau, and Lucas Herbert. Schauffele hasn’t come out of his group yet in the three years he has competed here, but he’s well-positioned to make noise this week as his group is also lacking, especially with Finau scuffling.
Avoid: Dustin Johnson (+2000) – Round-robin opponents: Mackenzie Hughes, Max Homa, and Matthew Wolff. It’s hard to fade any of the elite golfers this week, but I’ll go with DJ since Homa has been hot for a while and Hughes’ torrid putting could lead him to the sweet 16. Johnson won here in 2017 but hasn’t done too much over the last three editions since, plus his form is inconsistent these days, as well.
+2600 to +5000
Kevin Kisner (+5000) – Round-robin opponents: Justin Thomas, Luke List, and Marc Leishman. This is a pretty strong group overall, but you got to like Kisner’s strong match play at this tournament over the years as he won in 2019 and was runner-up in 2018. He recently had a T4 at THE PLAYERS Championship and could be tough to beat this week if he sticks to his game plan.
Paul Casey (+3000) – Round-robin opponents: Louis Oosthuizen, Alex Noren, and Corey Conners. This is another group that I struggle to predict, but I do like Casey’s betting value as he has two T9’s here over the last four installments plus he just missed out in 2018 when he finished T17. He was in the mix to win at THE PLAYERS in his most recent start, and could be on point again this week.
Avoid: Bryson DeChambeau (+4000) – Round-robin opponents: Richard Bland, Talor Gooch, and Lee Westwood. DeChambeau sort of has a weak-ish group, but the problem with him is that he has been battling injury and could be way off of his game this week. He only has a T42 and a T40 here too, and this course doesn’t really fit his game since distance isn’t critical here and he’s not accurate off the tee blocks.
+5100 to +10000
Alex Noren (+6000) – Round-robin opponents: Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey, and Corey Conners. I went with Casey above and I’ll take another player from his group in Noren as he also has a great record at this tournament with a 3rd in 2018, a T5 in 2017, and he just missed out on getting to the sweet 16 in 2019 with a T17. He’s on a heater right now and that could continue this week at a course that clearly fits his eye.
Brian Harman (+6500) – Round-robin opponents: Abraham Ancer, Bubba Watson, and Webb Simpson. One of the top players here since 2018 is surprisingly Harman with a T5 a year ago and a T9 in 2018. All three of his opponents have had their ups and downs lately, and Harman could take full advantage. I also like that he finished T5 at the Valspar Championship last week, so momentum is on his side this week in more ways than one.
Avoid: Kevin Na (+9000) – Round-robin opponents: Joaquin Niemann, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Na, and Russell Henley. Na and his family recently welcomed their third child into the world, so it makes me wonder if we will see him flash baby swag this week or baby rust – I’ll go with the latter. Na has seen success here in the past, but his current game is crap and who knows how many sleepless nights he has had recently also.
+11000 and higher
Mackenzie Hughes (+13000) – Round-robin opponents: Dustin Johnson, Max Homa, and Matthew Wolff. If Hughes gets rolling with his putter this week, he could ride it all the way to the sweet 16 and possibly beyond. He hasn’t been so good lately, but did finish T9 here last year and tends to run hot and cold, so he may be due to heat up again.
Erik Van Rooyen (+13000) – Round-robin opponents: Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, and Harold Varner III. I probably like Lowry the best in this group, but Van Rooyen could be the player who comes out of this group. He had a T13 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago and came in T9 last year, so he could be a tough out this week.
Avoid: Matthew Wolff (+15000) – Round-robin opponents: Dustin Johnson, Mackenzie Hughes, and Max Homa. He has been off lately with a missed cut, a T61, and a missed cut over his last three starts, and Wolff finished T28 here last year. His ball-striking has been awful all year and his week will likely end in a hurry this week if he fails to find his form from last Fall when he had a 2nd, a T5, and a T11 in October and November. If you hear howling this week, it’s likely coming from coyotes in your area and not Matt.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
