The WM Phoenix Open
DFS PGA Tour Golf Picks
The WM Phoenix Open
Preview for the WM Phoenix Open: What a fun week ahead with $20M on the line and a star-studded field fighting for the huge $3.6M top prize! This event began back in 1932 as the Arizona Open, but since 2010 it has been known as the Waste Management Phoenix Open until last year it’s simply the WM Phoenix Open. Since 1987, the tournament has been held at TPC Scottsdale and we will again see the same Stadium Course used this year, as well. The record at this event happened 10 years ago when Phil Mickelson shot a -28 but he wasn’t the first player to go that low as Mark Calcavecchia put up that same number in 2001. Winners of the Phoenix Open over the last five years include Scottie Scheffler in 2022, Brooks Koepka in 2021, Webb Simpson in 2020, Rickie Fowler in 2019, and Gary Woodland in 2018.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is a ridiculous $20M, the winner collects a godly $3.6M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, the greens are Bermudagrass, and average over 7,000 square feet. The winning score here over the past decade ranges from -14 to -28, so weather can play a huge role at this venue. Some core key stats to factor in this week, in order, include strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: around the green, and driving distance.
The field: We will see 132 players in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties will advance to weekend play after round 2 on Friday. We will see some elite players this week including world #1, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and lots of other talented golfers, as well. It’s pretty much a major this week, so enjoy! On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A.
Three questions that are relevant to the WM Phoenix Open this week:
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Brian Harman, Taylor Montgomery, Joel Dahmen, Brendon Todd, and Maverick McNealy.
- Which 10 players does my custom model like the most? Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, and Wyndham Clark.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at this event since 2018? Patrick Cantlay (4 rounds), Sahith Theegala (4 rounds), Justin Thomas (20 rounds), Xander Schauffele (20 rounds), Matt Fitzpatrick (4 rounds), Scottie Scheffler (10 rounds), Jhonattan Vegas (4 rounds), Jon Rahm (20 rounds), Tyrrell Hatton (4 rounds), and Garrick Higgo (4 rounds).
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are (in no particular order) 15 DFS golf picks on DraftKings (DK), plus I also include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last five years, and add in some tasty data.
15 Players Who Are High-Value Plays This Week – Get Them Into Your DFS Lineups
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – Rahm has been hard to stop lately with two wins in his last three starts and he has seven top 8’s over his last eight starts – his worst finish was a surprising T15 at the Tour Championship. He has super-elite ball striking skills and had he not lost 3.04 strokes via his short game last year, he likely would have won as he gained a massive 11.95 strokes ball striking. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T10, 2021 – T13, 2020 – T9, 2019 – T10, and 2018 – T11.
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – Rory has been scorching hot lately as well with back-to-back PGA Tour wins, he won two weeks ago on the DP World Tour, and it seems as though he has been in the mix to win every time he has teed it up since last April. His stats are incredible, and I suppose the only knock against him this week is his inexperience at this venue, but he still finished T13 here two years ago. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – He’s so strong ball striking, and his ice-cold putter showed signs of life two starts ago gaining 2.95 strokes, so he seems poised to be all over the leaderboard again this time around. He has five straight top 11’s and that includes a 2nd at the Hero World Challenge and a T3 in Mexico. He likely won’t defend his title this week given the airtight field, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Won, 2021 – T7, and 2020 – Cut.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – He just keeps putting up top 10’s as he has seven over his last 11 starts excluding with withdrawal at the Tournament of Champions. He also has three top 10’s here since 2019 including coming within a stroke of forcing a playoff against Brooks Koepka two years ago. He’s money in the bank this week as per usual. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T3, 2021 – T2, 2020 – T16, 2019 – T10, and 2018 – T17.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Morikawa is on a nice little heater at the moment going 6th-2nd-3rd over his last three starts and gained 10.33 strokes ball striking two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open. It’s also a huge positive that he’s gained more than 6 strokes putting over his last two starts, as well. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T25.
Tom Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – This kid has mad skill-winning twice since last August, and he has four top 11’s over his last five starts. His putter can really go off and when it does, he tends to win or finish top 5 given his solid ball striking prowess. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – He comes at a high price this week but seems worth it given he has two top 4’s over his last four starts including a T2 at The RSM Classic, and he had a tidy T3 here last year with strong stats throughout. He will work well this week in hybrid or balanced lineups. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T3.
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Threes are wild with Kirk lately as he had a 3rd at the Sony Open two starts ago and is coming off a T3 at The America Express with all parts of his game on fire. It also doesn’t hurt that he almost had a top 10 here last, so he should feel a wave of momentum coming into this week. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T14, 2021 – Cut, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T50, and 2018 – T11.
JT Poston (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Poston had three consecutive T21’s and is coming off a T6 at The American Express. He has put up some good numbers at this event including a T11 two years ago, so JT seems like a decent scrub option this week. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T23, 2021 – T11, 2020 – T37, and 2019 – T26.
Taylor Moore (Salary: DraftKings – 7.0K) – He’s starting to work back into form after missing three straight-cut lines as he has back-to-back top 15’s and it’s his ball striking leading the way. He has no experience yet at this tournament, but he should hold his own this week and put up a top-40 finish. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Cameron Young (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – He has threatened to win on numerous occasions, but his time hasn’t come just yet on the PGA Tour. Once his short game returns to form then he will get back into top 10 territory, and he had a 3rd three starts ago at the Hero World Challenge but we don’t have stat lines for that venue so it’s hard to say how he got the job done – likely through impressive ball striking. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T26.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Cantlay was excellent here a year ago in his only appearance at this event finishing 2nd and was so sound throughout his bag. He had a T2 three starts ago and can win on command since his putter can go bananas and seems to on a frequent basis. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – 2nd.
Jason Day (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He’s starting to rediscover his game with six top 21’s over his last seven starts and three of those were top 11’s. I thought that his career was going to completely fall off a cliff, but he seems to have rededicated himself to the sport and the results are following suit. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut.
Garrick Higgo (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – This one is a bit of a wild card but Higgo has two top 20’s over his last three starts and had a T21 here last year gaining strokes across the board except for a tiny 0.14 loss on approach. I wouldn’t be overweight on him this week, but he is projected to be only 2% or so owned so he would make a good pivot play in the low $7K range. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T21.
Scott Stallings (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – There are just so many talented players in the middle to top range but I wanted to get one $6K golfer included so I’m going with Stallings who has a solid record here and is coming off a T15 last week where he gained strokes across the board except for a modest 0.86 loss with his putter. He’s a pretty decent scrub option this week. WM Phoenix Open finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T21, 2021 – T36, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – T23.
