Xavier Worthy Fantasy Impact
While most eyes are on Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze, I have a feeling they might be overdrafted (particularly in redraft formats) and could not be worth the heavy draft price. There are others, though, who have the talent and a seemingly good landing spot being overlooked. Chief (no pun intended) among them is rookie WR Xavier Worthy, who the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to select at No. 28. While being on the defending champions is likely to impact his draft cost, he should still be much cheaper than any of the top-3 rookie wide receivers, making him a great value. So, how high can Worthy soar in 2024? Let’s take a look and see if we can figure out what to expect.
Fantasy Value
When drafting in redraft, you are not looking for the player who will be the best long-term player overall; instead, you want the player who will have the most productive season. That player could be Worthy. What gets me so excited about Worthy, even in his first season, is that while he is mostly known for his record-setting 40-yard dash, he is so much more. The Kansas City offense relies heavily on yards-after-the-catch production, and Worthy is one of the best in this year’s class in that regard. But he also excels as a serious threat in the screen game. On the surface, the one downside would be that there are many mouths to feed in Kansas City, plus Rashee Rice is the presumed WR1 on the team. But Rice’s availability is uncertain with a potential suspension looming. If that happens, Worthy will be essential to the success of this team and if he proves his worth on the field he may be able to keep his position as a primary offensive weapon even when Rice returns. Right now I still view Worthy as a WR3 or flex option for draft purposes with WR2 upside, but there may not be a receiver in this year’s class in a better situation to reach his ceiling in Year 1.
Dynasty Value
The dynasty value of Worthy is a bit more difficult to evaluate. Whereas in redraft, I would feel fine waiting on Worthy and bypassing Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze, in dynasty, Worthy ranks as my WR4 (yes, ahead of the Bills’ Keon Coleman.) Worthy brings his elite speed and playmaking skills to a team where he’ll be tied to the best quarterback in the league for the foreseeable future. This team also has Travis Kelce (who just signed a two-year contract extension) and Rashee Rice (who is facing disciplinary action) as solid offensive weapons. Still, Kelce is bound to retire at some point, and there’s a decent shot that Worthy leapfrogs Rice in the pecking order if the latter ends up missing significant time. Also, over the last four seasons, the Chiefs have been in the top-5 in pass-attempts-per-game, and I don’t see them changing their identity any time soon. Worthy’s speed and route-running could make him difficult to guard and force the ball into his hands. His big play and game-changing upside will only grow with time as he develops. In a dynasty rookie draft, I would draft Worthy anywhere from No. 4 to No. 6.
Conclusion
How good Worthy can be in his rookie season will depend, at least partly, on Rice’s status and whether or not Worthy can supplant him as the go-to wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes. Kelce will continue to be the No. 1 target but with so many targets to go around, the No. 2 or even No. 3 target on the Chiefs has a lot of value. Worthy is a little under-sized at 172 pounds, but I expect him to put on some weight and with his blazing speed, his size might not factor in as much as it would for a different type of receiver. Worthy’s ability to make plays downfield and off-screen passes should provide a safe floor. But it’s his ceiling and league-winning upside that should have you most excited. In redraft, it won’t cost you much to get him which makes him a low-risk/high-reward pick. Don’t reach for him in redraft formats, but right now his ADP is in the ninth round. I expect that to rise a bit as we get closer to drafts, but if he settles around the late sixth round to early eighth round don’t hesitate to grab him. In Dynasty, he is at least a top-6 pick, but I would understand taking him a couple of picks earlier at pick No. 4.
