Best Ball ADP Report
Best Ball ADP is a constantly changing landscape where player values fluctuate based on perception. In the past month, some players have seen a significant increase in their ADP, while others have experienced a decline. To understand these shifts, I analyzed the top 100 players in Underdog Fantasy’s ADP from the third week of May to the third week of June.
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Risers
Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
- May ADP 83.9
- June ADP 63.2
With Dalvin Cook’s release, Mattison’s ADP has risen rapidly. He is expected to carry the load for the Vikings and has proven his productivity as a starter, accumulating 477 yards and five touchdowns in six games. Additionally, the scarcity of top-tier running backs in the draft further enhances Mattison’s appeal as a solid RB2. His ADP has risen from RB32 to RB20. He is a great value in the 6th round.
Elijah Moore, WR, Browns
- May ADP 102.2
- June ADP 86.5
Moore has seen a substantial rise in his ADP due to optimism surrounding Deshaun Watson’s performance this season and reports of Moore having an increased role in the Browns’ offense. Despite being in a struggling Jets offense, Moore finished 12th in target separation and 5th in True Catch Rate last season. He is now being drafted as WR44 in the 8th round.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
- May ADP 65.2
- June ADP 52.4
Despite Mixon’s ADP increase, he is still undervalued. I have him ranked 25th overall in PPR scoring, 27 spots ahead of his Underdog ADP. Many experts have doubts about Mixon due to his lower number of carries in 2022 and his age (turning 27). However, Mixon remains a three-down back with a high opportunity share in his team’s backfield. He was the 7th most targeted RB last year, highlighting his value. Sharp drafters are recognizing Mixon’s potential, causing his ADP to rise.
Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
- May ADP 77.5
- June ADP 60.1
Brown had a strong start to the previous season, averaging over 18 points per game when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended. Although his performance dropped when Hopkins returned, his early-season success contributes to his rising ADP. Brown’s ADP is currently stable, but any updates on Kyler Murray’s situation could impact it.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
- May ADP 89.7
- June ADP 75
Dotson, the Commanders’ 2022 first-round pick, had limited receptions last season but showcased outstanding efficiency metrics. The addition of a new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, has positively influenced Washington’s offense, raising expectations for improved quarterback play. Dotson’s ADP has risen accordingly, and it aligns with expectations.
Fallers
Dalvin Cook, RB, Free Agent
- May ADP 61.6
- June ADP 82
Cook’s ADP had already been declining before news of his release. It was evident for months that he wouldn’t be part of the Vikings this season, leading to a drop in his ADP. It will be interesting to monitor Cook’s ADP to see how his release impacts it, and there may be potential value for drafters once he signs with another team.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
- May ADP 86.8
- June ADP 102.1
With a change in offensive coordinator and play-calling responsibilities, it is expected that there will be fewer passing opportunities for Prescott this season. Additionally, his performance in 2022 was not exceptional. The reason for his ADP decline in the last month is unclear, but it presents an opportunity for teams seeking value at the quarterback position.
Isaiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
- May ADP 68.9
- June ADP 80.2
The talk of a Clyde Edwards-Helaire resurgence in the Chiefs’ training camp, coupled with Pacheco’s recovery from injuries, has caused a decline in his ADP. Monitoring beat writer reports is crucial to assess Pacheco’s value as it depends on the role CEH ultimately assumes.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
- May ADP 87.7
- June ADP 99.4
Over the past month, there has been a market correction for quarterbacks within the top 100 players, leading to a decrease in their ADP. Richardson currently sits as QB11, which is still too high, in my opinion. I expect his ADP to continue to drop at least until we see him play in the preseason.
Justin Fields, QB, Bears
- May ADP 38.5
- June ADP 48.4
Fields’ ADP decline from the third to the fourth round can be attributed to a correction in the aggressive drafting of quarterbacks early in the Best Ball season. It is unlikely that his ADP will drop further to the fifth round. Fields is a good value at his current ADP.
