10 Prop Bet Picks for Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl 53 Prop Bet Picks

It’s that time of the year again; the week where every Tom, Dick, and Harry in America with a little spare change looks to spice up their Super Bowl viewing experience by placing a wager or two on the granddaddy of them all. Those looking for action will have plenty to choose from, as the number of Super Bowl prop bets easily eclipses the century mark between all gambling platforms. I narrowed my Super Bowl Prop Bets down to 10 for this article, sharing with you my thoughts as we head into Sunday’s big game. Some of these are long shots that have a huge return, while others are a few of my favorites with excellent odds. 

After you check out my 10 Super Bowl prop bets, don’t forget to give FanatsyData’s Super Bowl LIII Preview article a read, it goes into great detail about who will win and why.

1. Coin Toss- Heads (-105)

Throughout our lives, we’ve heard the old saying “tails never fails” before the coin flip that decides who will be riding shotgun and who will be forced to pack into the back seat of your buddy’s two-door. Some of you were left grinning as you stretched your legs and buckled your seatbelt. Some of you were left replaying the moment you saw George Washington’s left eye staring back at you from the top of your friend’s hand, knees in the chest, as you struggled to hear your friends talk from the back seat of the car.  I expect a heavy public backing on Tails; so let’s avoid the trap and take the contrarian route. Super Bowl week? It might as well be Shark week because I’m going to hammer-heads.

Now that I got that out of my system, let’s get to some real value bets.

2. Cordarrelle Patterson to Win Super Bowl MVP (+8,000)

To those of you who were left kicking yourselves after passing on the “Dexter Jackson to Win Super Bowl MVP” bet in 2002, take your shot.  Contrary to public opinion, I believe both defenses will show up in this game and keep the score relatively low. If the Pats offense becomes stagnant, they may give Patterson a shot to make something happen on a reverse or some kind of trick play. He saw 4 targets last week, so he was at least somewhat involved in the passing game. Patterson is also the Pats primary kick returner; though his opportunities on special teams may be limited given Rams Kicker Greg Zuerlein’s 76% touchback rate this year. Here’s to hoping Patterson can break off at least two big scoring plays.

3. James Develin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1200)

Develin had 4 touchdowns on 6 carries during the regular season. So far this postseason, he’s seen two more carries and one target. The volume isn’t great, but for these odds, I’ll take my chances. With the Rams defense likely to key on Michel, Gronk, and Edelman inside the 5, we may see Belichick dial up a quick handoff or give him a look off of play action in flat.

4. National Anthem- Under 1:47 (+120)

Gladys Knight takes the Midnight Train to Georgia to start off the prop betting frenzy. Since 1990, the National Anthem has eclipsed the 1:47 mark a total 21 of times compared to just 8 for the under. While the Over 1:47 may look like The Best Thing That Ever Happened, a quick google search has my mind set on the Under. I Heard Through the Grape Vine (YouTube) Gladys Knight’s 1991 performance of the National Anthem clocked in at 1:33 from the first to last word. The problem is there’s no record of where that performance took place or its authenticity. However; I do not believe this is a ploy to throw off the Over/Under on the anthem for this Super Bowl, as the video was uploaded on Feb 24, 2018. Over bettors will be hoping Gladys adds some Fergie-esque.

flavor to our National Anthem, but I don’t see that happening. Take the Under here.

5. Will the Super Bowl Winning Team Visit the Whitehouse- Yes (-150)

This will be one of the less popular bets of the night as your money will be tied up for quite some time. Robert Kraft and Donald Trump’s friendship has been well documented over the years, so it’s easy to assume that if the Patriots win they will be visiting the Whitehouse. With the Patriots sitting at -140 as of this writing, I believe it’s worth sacrificing the 10 cent vig. Even if the Patriots lose, you still have a chance to win if the Rams decide to make the trip to DC.

6. Will There Be a Penalty for Roughing the Passer? Yes (+105)

I assume the line on “Will Tom Brady be Playing Quarterback for the Patriots?” would be set somewhere around -999,999, so there’s tremendous value in getting this at +105. Rumor has it Chris Jones bet his entire playoff bonus on this prop.  

7. Total Passing Yards for Tom Brady- Under 300.5 (-110)

The Rams pass defense is nothing special. They rank 16th, surrendering an average of 237.5 yards through the air per game. However, they did excel when it came to taking the ball away through the air, ranking 3rd in interceptions with 18. While Tom Brady is still one of the best in game, he did throw two interceptions last week. I see Belichick taking full advantage of the Rams porous run defense (more on this later) and going with a run-heavy approach in this game as he’s done throughout this postseason.

8. Total Touchdowns for the Rams in the 1^st Quarter- Over 0.5 (-115)

 Although the Rams have been held without a touchdown in their first two games this postseason, they found plenty of success in the first quarter during the regular season, averaging 6 points and scoring a touchdown in 10 out of their 16 contests. Look for Sean McVay to take some pressure off of the defense by taking chances down the field and getting off to an early start.    

9. Sony Michel to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1200)

 Sony Michel has been a beast this postseason, totaling 242 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on a whopping 53 carries. New England has given Michel plenty of opportunities, and I don’t see them pulling any punches against a defense that allows 122.3 rushing yards per game; good for 5th worst in the NFL. A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP award since 1998, when Terrell Davis had 152 yards from scrimmage and 0 touchdowns against the Dirty Birds. This may have something to do with the far odds. With Michel averaging 121 yards and 2.5 scores so far this postseason, the +1200 is far too much value to pass up.

10. James White Longest Rush- Over 5.5 Yards (-115)

James White has seen a lowly 13.6% carry share so far this postseason but has been a force in the short passing game for Tom Brady. After not getting a single carry in the Divisional Round, White carried the ball 6 times for 23 yards, including a 9-yard scamper out of the shotgun formation late in the 2nd Quarter.  For all the talent the Rams have across their defensive line, they were a huge disappointment against the run this season, allowing the 6th most yards per carry during the regular season. Look for the Pats to catch the Rams off guard and hand the ball to White out of the shotgun for a big gain at some point in this one.