Super Bowl LIII Preview: Rams vs. Patriots

Super Bowl 53 Preview

The Super Bowl is notorious for taking attention away from the game itself, whether emphasis arrives on the price of a 30-second commercial or a halftime performance, it’s time to prioritize the single most important contest remaining before we head into the depths of another long NFL offseason. Leave your referring reflections and overtime recommendations for after this Sunday—right now, all that matters is the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.

17 years after these teams faced off in Super Bowl XXXVI, they head to Atlanta with much different expectations despite the common goal of hoisting the Lombardi. Let’s take a dive in:

Rams Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Thinking about the current array of Los Angeles weaponry isn’t quite the same task as earlier in this Ram campaign. Seven games into the year, Todd Gurley was on pace to break LaDainian Tomlinson’s record for TDs in a season; now, rumors continue to swirl regarding his health, and C.J. Anderson appears at the very least in the mix for a share of groundwork in the big game. Unless the team is covering up an injury -(which would be against NFL rules), I expect Gurley to play a bigger role than he has in the playoffs thus far, particularly as far as receiving work.

While Gurley’s knee injury only sidelined him momentarily, the loss of Cooper Kupp to an ACL tear has put a dent in the efficiency of the high-flying offense from early 2018. Robert Woods has admirably slid inside to Kupp’s slot position with sophomore WR Josh Reynolds taking Woods’ place outside, but there’s no question Jared Goff has missed his safety blanket. In games Kupp hasn’t played this year, Goff’s completion percentage (69.6% with Kupp, 60.1% without), yards per attempt (9.7 with/7.1 without), and passer rating (111.9 with/88.6 without) have all taken substantial hits. This setup doesn’t suggest a specialized gameplan to take away an individual player, as Bill Belichick likes to employ, though limiting the opportunity for Brandin Cooks to play his revenge card with deep shots would force the L.A. offense to put together sustained drives sans chunk plays.

The battle in the trenches should provide a slight edge for Los Angeles, as the Rams finished among the best in the league for just about every notable rushing metric during the regular season in addition to amassing 350 yards on the ground in their two playoff games. New England’s pass rush dominated at the beginning of the AFC Championship game, though the Rams allow sacks on just 5.25% of Goff’s dropbacks (6th-best in the league) and keeping Goff comfortable will be a priority given his struggles this season have come most frequently when feeling pressure. Ultimately, Sean McVay will trot out his standard 11 personnel, develop plays that build off each other with similar looks, and aim to work his savviness though play-action/misdirection to keep the Patriots from halting his favored side of the ball.

Patriots Offense vs. Rams Defense:

In the first half of games this season, New England ran plays at the fastest pace of any team. Taking on a prolific Chiefs offense, however, they systematically slowed down their own—a 15-play TD drive eating up 8:05 on their first possession worked perfectly to minimize Patrick Mahomes’ time on the field. Against the Rams, expect to see the Patriots adjusting tempo throughout the contest—while chewing clock might be an objective, working their classic no-huddle will strain the stamina of L.A.’s pass rushers and prove useful at the end of the half.

Julian Edelman and James White should lead the charge as Tom Brady’s main weapons, as he’ll need them both on ever-crucial third downs to keep the ball moving. Slot WRs on each side could very well top each team’s receiving yardage (attacking New England over the middle of the field has been a common theme of recent, while Edelman has led the Pats in receiving five straight games dating back to the regular season), and the offseason additions of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib can only contribute so much if Brady is distributing work elsewhere. Alvin Kamara boasted 11 receptions for 96 yards against this Rams defense; it wouldn’t be a surprise to see White as a sleeper candidate for MVP depending on how this game winds up.

At the end of the day, the Giants sported two Super Bowl upsets of New England squads through getting basic four-man pressure. If Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh control the interior and keep Sony Michel from getting started, there’s no doubt regarding their ability to go after the quarterback in obvious passing situations. The Patriots will do their best to draw up screen plays and quick passes, knowing the threat, but it only takes one breakthrough or strip sack to turn a game on its head—particularly if this one shoots out. X-factor Rob Gronkowski lingers as another potential option, too, but the mammoth of the Patriots’ offense seems to work independently of special personnel. Sooner or later, favorable matchups or not, they’ll find some points.

Final Verdict:

With the total points for the game currently hovering around 56.5, Super Bowl LIII sits only a point below the highest over/under in Super Bowl history. Both teams play fast, both teams put up points, and both teams will have no hesitance in a neutral stadium after just winning on the road. In games such as these, it often is a lucky bounce here or trick play there that makes the difference.

The Patriots are 2.5-point favorites, and with the vast edge in experience in addition to at QB, it’s challenging to stray away from the old guard. However, this Rams team opened the season on a tear for a reason; top to bottom, Los Angeles has as much talent on its roster as anyone. A powerful defensive line should put a cap on upside against an offense lacking a true downfield weapon, while McVay’s magic does enough on the other side to pull off a close upset in Atlanta and bring a championship out west.

Prediction: Rams 27, Patriots 24

Preferred Fantasy Plays: James White, Julian Edelman, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds