Surprising Fantasy Stats
The hits just keep on coming. After a start to the season that saw players like Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Isiah Pacheco, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon sidelined, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, and DeVonta Smith can be added to the list. It’s getting difficult to field a fantasy lineup that resembles anything like the team we originally planned. Some managers remain unscathed, but most of us have at least one injured starter, and in many cases we have multiple. But among the disappointment are some interesting facts that may surprise you. Like real football, fantasy football can change on a dime, but here are 10 things I found interesting coming out of this past week.
Jayden Daniels (QB)
*Has the highest completion percentage in the NFL
On Monday Night, rookie QB Jayden Daniels looked like the superstar everyone thought he’d become. Against Cincinnati, Daniels completed 21 of 23 pass attempts for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran 12 times for 39 yards and one touchdown. Even more impressive is that he did it against a Bengals defense that is in the top 10 against the pass. But as good as he looked, it still blew my mind when I saw that Daniels has the highest completion percentage in the league (80.3%) and is currently the No. 2 fantasy QB. It looks like Daniels is the real deal and with three of his next four matchups against quarterback-friendly units, I don’t expect things to slow down anytime soon.
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
*Not a top 12 fantasy QB
It’s been a while since Patrick Mahomes has been an elite top-tier fantasy quarterback. Last season, he finished the year as the QB8, but if you were the manager who owned him, it was a frustrating season. Through three weeks, Mahomes has failed to finish as a QB1 once, and is the overall QB13. This is not what people were hoping for when they chose to invest in him early. Hopefully, this is not the new normal. If it is, then Mahomes will be a bust. He can still turn things around. Perhaps they’ll go even more pass-heavy now that Pacheco is on the shelf. But if we get another season where Mahomes finishes outside of the top five at the position, he will be viewed much differently next season.
Travis Etienne (RB)
*Not a top 20 fantasy running back
Travis Etienne has not lived up to expectations. Etienne was a second-round pick in most fantasy drafts. This means that for many, he is their No. 1 running back. But after the first three weeks of the season, Etienne is RB22 in all formats, making him barely an RB2. The entire Jaguars offense has looked inept to start the season, which has capped Etienne’s upside. Fellow running back Tank Bigsby has also been involved more than was expected. Perhaps the Jacksonville coaching staff is trying to keep him healthy for a playoff run, but at 0-3, it might be time to start getting their most talented playmaker involved.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
*Zero touchdowns this season
This isn’t an anti-Josh Jacobs rant. I think he’s been pretty solid up to this point. He’s had double-digit fantasy points in two of the first three games and in those games, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 25 touches per game. Those are elite numbers. The issue has been touchdowns. Jacobs has yet to find the end zone this season. I don’t expect that to last. Jordan Love was close to returning this past weekend and, barring a setback, should be out there in Week 4. As well as Malik Willis has performed in Love’s absence, getting Love back should help the entire offense. Expect Jacobs to be dancing in the end zone soon.
David Montgomery (RB)
*Has the lowest snap share of any top 12 running back
David Montgomery is, once again, doing what David Montgomery does. Producing with volume, efficiency, and touchdowns. Montgomery is averaging nearly 20 touches per game and has scored in each contest. He has also gained 4.5 yards per carry and has finished no worse than RB14 in any given week. He has done this all while getting the lowest snap share of any top 12 running back. Montgomery has taken 41.7% of the snaps. That knowledge may scare some Montgomery owners, especially since teammate Jahmyr Gibbs has enjoyed a 56.9% snap share. But this is one of the best run games in the league, so don’t overthink it. Keep Montgomery in your lineups.
Jauan Jennings (WR)
*Has the third most receiving yards in the NFL
What a difference a week makes! Before this past Sunday, Jauan Jennings had no more than five targets in a game and failed to crack the top 30 at the position. But sometimes all a player needs is an opportunity, and Jennings’s chance came against the Los Angeles Rams. With no Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle, Jennings stepped up in a big way, catching 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns, much to the chagrin of Brandon Aiyuk owners. This was good enough to give him the third most receiving yards in the NFL. Eventually, San Francisco will get most, if not all, their studs back and Jennings will be relegated to the fantasy bench, if not the waiver wire. But until then, keep putting him in your lineup.
Malik Nabers (WR)
*Currently the No. 1 fantasy WR in half and full-PPR formats
Even those who thought Malik Nabers was the best wide receiver in the 2024 NFL draft class could not have predicted the start he has had. After an underwhelming NFL debut where he caught five passes for 66 yards and failed to hit double-digit fantasy points, Nabers followed it up with two top-three performances. First, he caught 10 of 18 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown and then he hauled in eight of 10 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns. He has also looked incredible while doing it. I don’t know if we can expect nearly 25 points each week from Nabers, but he is currently the WR1 in fantasy and an automatic set-it-and-forget-it option.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR)
*Fewest air yards of any top 25 wide receiver
Ja’Marr Chase has had a slow start to the NFL season. Before this week, Chase had scored under 20 PPR points in the first two weeks combined. But against Washington, Chase broke out with nearly 30 PPR points. This was the type of performance that those who invested a first-round pick in him were waiting to see. Still, even with his recent success, he has not been catching the ball downfield. Chase has the fewest air yards of any top-25 wide receiver. If that changes, Chase should be able to produce weekly top three numbers. Chase is entering a seven-game stretch against some very fantasy-friendly pass defenses. If there was ever a time for consistent, elite production, it’s now.
Dallas Goedert (TE)
*No. 1 tight end in all formats
Like Chase, Goedert began the season slowly, and like Jennings, all it took to produce was other high-end targets being unavailable. Against the New Orleans Saints, Goedert caught 10 of his 11 targets for 170 yards. Not only was his performance enough to make him the top TE for the week, but it catapulted him to the top of the position overall. That may be more of an indictment of the tight end position than an endorsement of Goedert, but Goedert’s performance should not be ignored. Especially with the Week 4 status of both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith uncertain. If one or both are out, expect another heavy dose of Goedert.
The TE Position
*Through three weeks TEs have only scored 13 touchdowns
As I mentioned earlier, Goedert’s status as the TE1 may be more about the state of the tight end position than his domination. Tight end has been the worst position in fantasy. Through three weeks, there have been no clear-cut starters or consistency. Much of this has been due to the lack of touchdowns. There have only been 13 touchdowns thrown to tight ends this season. To put that into perspective, last season (a season considered by many to be abysmal for tight ends) there were 25 touchdowns in the first three weeks. So yeah, it’s been bad. Hopefully, it will change, but it’s more likely that our starting tight ends will continue to make us pull our hair out.
Bonus Stat: This stat isn’t fantasy-relevant, but it was one of the craziest football-related stats I saw over the last two days. The Washington Commanders/Cincinnati Bengals Monday Night Football game was the first game since 1940 without a turnover or a punt. That is insane. Do with that knowledge what you will. It’s unlikely to help you in fantasy football, but it could lead you to victory on trivia night.
