Surprising Fantasy Stats
Sam Howell (QB)
*Most pass attempts per game in the league
If you had asked me prior to the season who would have the most pass attempts this season I probably would’ve thrown out names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Kirk Cousins. While Cousins suffered a season-ending injury in week 8, Allen and Mahomes have been doing their fair share of passing. Still, it is Sam Howell who leads the league in pass attempts per game with over 40 anttenpts in each contest, and he’s looked good while doing it. Howell currently sits as the QB4 on the year. He has found that level of success by spreading the ball around and throwing it a ton. He also benefits from a talented group of pass catchers and a run game that has found new life and managed to keep defenses honest. It remains to be seen if this level of play can continue. He does have a favorable matchup against the Dolphins in week 13, but his fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, with two of those games against the Jets and the 49ers. His production could take a hit at the exact time managers need their players to come through.
C.J. Stroud (QB)
*On pace to break the record for most passing yards by a rookie quarterback in a single season
By now it’s been well documented that C.J. Stroud is playing at an incredibly high level. He is currently the QB9 and prior to a week 11 matchup where he threw three interceptions against the Arizona Cardinals, Stroud was very effective at protecting the ball. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Stroud threw 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also thrown for over 240 yards in all but two games. Still, what has not been spoken about enough is just how uncommon and historically great his performance has been. Stroud is on pace to break the record for most passing yards by a rookie quarterback in a single season. Andrew Luck holds the record with a rookie season of 4374 yards. Of course, that was in 16 games and teams not play 17 games, but Stroud is actually on a 16 game pace to break it. At his current pace of 296.2 yards a game Stroud would hit 4739 yards in 16 games. That would be an incredible accomplishment, and one that seems well within his reach. Unless Stroud gets injured are his quality of play really starts to diminish it would be a surprise if we didn’t have a new record holder by the end of the season.
Gus Edwards (RB)
*2nd most rushing TDs among running backs
Over the last five weeks, Edwards has been doing his best impression of 2022 Jamaal Williams. That is to say, he has been scoring touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Over that span, Edwards has nine rushing touchdowns. Before that Edwards had one rushing touchdown in six games for a total of 10, which is the 2nd most rushing touchdowns on the season behind only Raheem Mostert. Needless to say, anyone who held onto Edwards has been handsomely rewarded in recent weeks with four top-7 finishes in the last five weeks. Edwards has not been the lead back all season for the Ravens, but he has received at least 10 touches in all but two games and has easily been the most productive player in this backfield. That should continue in week 12 when he faces the Los Angeles Chargers’ bottom 8 run defense but after his week 13 bye he will have four straight difficult matchups. However, if he continues to get goal-line carries and score touchdowns at the rate he currently is he should still find himself with top-12 upside.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
*Most rush attempts in the league
The surprising thing is not that Jacobs is being used a lot in a Raiders offense that is being led by rookie Aidan O’Connell. What’s surprising is just how much he has been used. Through 11 weeks, Jacobs leads the league in rush attempts and is top-3 in targets among running backs as well. This workload has led to Jacobs being RB5 on the season. The fact that Jacobs has more attempts than running backs like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley is very impressive. Jacobs has not been particularly efficient with his attempts but in fantasy, volume is key and anyone who owns Jacobs has to be pleased with the volume he’s getting. I don’t see this changing anytime soon either. Jacobs is one of their best playmakers and putting the ball in his hands and taking the responsibility out of O’Connell’s hands makes sense. Although, in week 12, against the Chiefs, the Raiders may be forced to air it out. Jacobs’ role in the passing game has diminished in recent weeks, but if they get behind early then his number could be called often. Keep firing him up.
Brian Robinson (RB)
*Running back 4 on the season in fantasy
Anyone who says they had Brian Robinson as the RB4 on their bingo card is lying. Even those who believe in the player and the talent could not have expected such a successful fantasy season from the 2nd-year running back. Robinson is easy to root for. After being shot prior to his rookie season, he has made a comeback that should inspire each and every one of us. Robinson has five top-15 running back finishes this season, and over the last couple of weeks, he’s been a top-12 back. His workload has been unpredictable which can sometimes be frustrating. He’s had anywhere from six to 19 carries each game and zero to nine targets. However, he does have at least 17 carries in two of his last three games and 15 total targets over his last two. He does have some tough matchups coming up against some solid run defenses, but if he continues to get this type of workload he will be a worthy RB2 start every week.
Tyreek Hill (WR)
*On pace for over 2000 receiving yards
Don’t get me wrong. I know that Tyreek Hill is a stud. He has always been a stud. He continues to be a stud and that is not likely to change anytime soon. But how good he has been this season at the age of 29 is truly remarkable. In 10 games, Hill has 1222 receiving yards, putting him on pace for over 2000 receiving yards. If he were to do this, he would be the first receiver in history to hit 2000 yards receiving in the regular season, surpassing Calvin Johnson’s 1964 yards. Hill will have one more game than Johnson did to achieve this milestone, but even so, it would be an amazing accomplishment, especially on a team that boasts other playmakers like Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane. Plus, there’s nothing to say Hill couldn’t do it in 16 games. He would only need to average 130 yards per game to reach that goal. Hill has received at least nine targets in all but one game and with how he’s been playing, the record seems well within his reach. Hill is currently the WR1 and it’s hard to imagine anyone dethroning him in 2023.
Davante Adams (WR)
*2nd fewest receiving yards among top-12 wide receivers
On the other side of the spectrum is Davante Adams. Adams has had a very disappointing fantasy season in 2023 with only one boom game and just two more over 12 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. This is an unfortunate development for a player who is still among the most talented pass-catchers in the league. This issue has not been because of Adams. The problem has been the play he’s been getting from his quarterbacks. This lack of efficiency at the quarterback position has made Adams the WR12 on the year and has resulted in him having the 2nd fewest receiving yards among any wide receiver currently in the top-12. As long as O’Connell is under center it’s hard to imagine things getting better for Adams. As bad as Jimmy Garoppolo was playing, three of Adams’ best performances came with him throwing the ball. The one silver lining to all of this is that Adams does have 26 targets over the last two weeks, but he has only managed 13 catches and has yet to surpass 90 yards. The quality of the passes simply isn’t there, but as long as Adams is healthy and out there, the talent is undeniable making him someone who needs to be in your lineup.
Mike Evans (WR)
*Fewest receptions among top-12 wide receivers
This one really surprised me, because as the WR1 on the Buccaneers, I would expect Evans to have more than 48 receptions. That is an average of just over four receptions per game. For a player who has had at least eight targets in all but three games this year, it’s surprising that he has only managed an average of four receptions. Evans has also failed to reach 90 yards receiving in all but two games. The only explanation can be either defenses focusing on stopping Evans or the play of Baker Mayfield. To his credit, Mayfield has been better than anticipated in 2023, but he is still clearly a downgrade from future Hall of Famer, Tom Brady. Still, Evans finds himself in the top-12 at the position due to his nose for the end zone. Evans has seven touchdowns scoring a touchdown in all but three games this year. With that type of touchdown upside Evans is a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 even as he approaches a string of tough matchups that could make it hard to produce yardage. But, he has averaged 11 targets over the last two weeks, and as long as he gets that type of volume he is a safe floor play that could finish in the top-10 position any week he finds the end zone.
T.J. Hockenson (TE)
*Already has over 100 targets
I am not surprised that Hockenson is receiving targets in this Vikings offense, but coming into the 2023 season I don’t think anyone expected Hockenson to have over 100 targets with six games left in the season or to be the TE1 on the year, but both are currently the case. Some of this can be attributed to the loss of Justin Jefferson in week 5, but even with Jefferson in the lineup, Hockenson received at least eight targets in four of five games. Then when Cousins was lost for the season managers everywhere were considering selling Hockenson, but newly acquired Joshua Dobbs has been even better for the talented tight end. Over the last three games with Dobbs, Hockenson has had target totals of 12, 15, and 7, and that is while being limited by a rib injury. In Arizona, Dobbs showed that he loves to target his tight end, and that has carried over into Minnesota. It will be interesting to see if that changes once Justin Jefferson returns to the lineup, but my guess is Jefferson will hurt rookie Jordan Addison more than he will Hockenson. I expect Hockenson to continue to be good for 8-13 targets every game and one of the true set-it-and-forget-it tight ends.
Donald Parham (TE)
*More TDs than Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, & Evan Engram
Chargers TE, Donald Parham has had an interesting season. He has received three or fewer targets in all but two games this year and has still managed four top-12 TE finishes (including two that were top-4.) Teammate Gerald Everett has been the more involved tight end (when both are healthy), but Parham has been the more productive of the two, and in week 11 (with Everett lost to injury) Parham had the most targets (6) he’s seen all season, leading to him finishing as the TE8. Everett is expected to be back this week, but with four touchdowns on the season, Parham does have some TD upside, and after the top 3 or 4 at the position you could do worse. Parham’s four TDs are more than Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, or Evan Engram, and is tied with Hockenson and LaPorta. I’m not recommending you start Parham moving forward. You likely have a better option on your roster who sees a larger share of his team’s targets, but if your usual starter is hurt and you’re desperate for some help this week, Parham could be a decent option.
