Underdog Fantasy Picks
We are now into week 12 of the NFL season and man, has it gone by fast. It seems like it wasn’t that long ago that we were all preparing our fantasy draft strategies in anticipation of the season. Now we are at that point in the year where some teams have clinched a playoff spot, others don’t have a chance to, and the rest are on the bubble aware that each decision they make in the coming weeks will determine their fate. The good thing about week 12 is that there are no teams on bye, everyone will play. The bad news is that managers will be without players like Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow during a crucial time in the fantasy season. Still, there is a lot of star power and if you managed to draft well then you hopefully have a deep enough team to carry you through any injuries you may be dealing with. Then of course, beyond season-long leagues, there are other wagers to be made based on each matchup. For the sake of this article, I am focusing on Friday’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. With that said, let’s take a look at 7 of my favorite Underdog Fantasy Prop bets in that game.
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WR JAYLEN WADDLE UNDER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Dolphins have been a very good offense this season, both in real and fantasy football, but one of the more frustrating cogs in this well-oiled machine has been WR Jaylen Waddle. Through 11 weeks, Waddle is the WR32 on the season and only has three top-20 finishes at the position. With teammate, and current WR1, Tyreek Hill dominating targets, Waddle has failed to find anything resembling consistency in this offense. I don’t see that happening in week 12 against a Jets defense that is the best fantasy defense against wide receivers, allowing just 96 yards total per game to the position. It may not impact Tyreek Hill much as he has proven to be matchup-proof, but it’s hard to imagine two wide receivers (even as talented as Waddle is) producing against this secondary. On top of that, Waddle has hit the over in two of the last seven games and since week 2 has only surpassed 55 yards receiving twice, and both times were in far more favorable matchups. With Washington and Tennessee on the horizon, there could be brighter days ahead for Waddle, but in week 12 he should once again disappoint.
RB RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 12.85 FANTASY POINTS
As good as the Jets are against the pass they are far more easy to run on. The Jets have allowed over 100 yards rushing per game and over 24 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. With how Mostert has been playing, I’m not sure Friday will be the day they slow down a running game. Mostert is managing several minor injuries, but he has been doing so for weeks now and has still managed to be out there on game day. This week should be no different. Mostert has been about as consistent as they come at the running back position. He has hit the over on this prop in four of his last seven games and has managed to surpass 13 fantasy points in over half of his games this season. His usage has been a bit over the place receiving between 7 and 22 carries in each game, but he has averaged over five yards a carry in all but four games this season, and against a Jets defense that is much easier to run on than pass, Mostert could be very busy on Friday. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t crush this prop. He could even be close to it by halftime.
WR TYREEK HILL OVER 6 RECEPTIONS
Tyreek Hill has arguably been the most consistent player in fantasy this year at any position. Hill is currently the WR1, and I would be hard-pressed to find anyone that I believe could take the crown from him this year. At 29 years old, Hill appears to be as good of a route runner and as fast as he has ever been. Hill has seven games this season with at least 20 fantasy points, seven, and has nine targets in all but one game. Betting on Hill is about as sure of a bet as you’re ever going to make. Yes, it is hard to pass on this Jets team, and yes, they are vulnerable on the ground, but do you really believe that coach Mike McDaniel isn’t going to do everything he can to get his best player involved as much as possible? Besides, Hill has had other tough matchups this season and still managed to produce. He is nearly impossible to guard, making him as matchup-proof as they come. He has hit the over on this prop in six of his last seven games and has over six receptions in all but three games this season. Tagovailoa will continue to pepper Hill with targets and as a result, Hill should catch a lot of balls.
QB TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 247.5 PASSING YARDS
With how Tagovailoa has been performing this season it may seem crazy to take the under here, but while I think Tyreek Hill can easily surpass six receptions, that doesn’t mean I think there are going to be a ton of yards through the air. This is a very tough matchup against a Jets defense that is only allowing 178.7 passing yards per game. Some of that does have to do with the inadequacies of players like Aidan O’Connell, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito, but they also managed to hold Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes under 240 yards passing, so it’s not all due to the level of their competition. Plus, the Jets offense could have a lot of trouble scoring after turning quarterback duties over to backup Tim Boyle, meaning there might not be a lot of cause for Tagovailoa to air it out in this one. He has hit the over on this prop in all but two games this season, so if you wanted to take the over I wouldn’t blame you. Still, I don’t see Tagovailoa having to throw it much more than 30 times, and I could see Mostert getting upwards of 20 touches. If that happens, and the Dolphins play clock management football after jumping out to an early lead, you’re going to be happy you took the under.
RB BREECE HALL UNDER 13.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Hear me out. Breece Hall is an incredible talent and if the Jets were a better team he would be a true workhorse, receiving 15-20 carries every single game. But the Jets are not a good team and have been unable to get anything going on offense. That’s the main reason they are giving Tim Boyle the nod at quarterback this week. They just need to try something new. The issue is there’s no guarantee that Boyle will be better than Zach Wilson was and so far through 11 weeks, even with a struggling Zach Wilson, Hall has only managed over 13 carries twice. There is always the possibility that in an attempt to slow down the Dolphins’ offense and keep them off the field, the Jets go very run-heavy instead of relying on Boyle’s arm. That would even be the smart way to play it, but the Dolphins may leave the Jets no choice but to throw it if they find themselves playing catchup all afternoon. This stout Jets defense may be able to keep the game close and allow for a more balanced offensive attack, but that’s a tall order for any defense. Besides, until the Jets show any sort of commitment to running the ball, it’s best to bet we’ll see much of the same on Friday.
WR GARRETT WILSON OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS
As I mentioned above, I expect the Jets to be forced to go pass-heavy in this one and that would benefit all pass-catchers, but none more than Garrett Wilson. Wilson is the clear WR1 on this team with double-digit targets in five of his last seven games and at least eight targets in all but two games this season. While those games were with Zach Wilson, I don’t expect much to change with Tim Boyle under center. Wilson is easily the most talented wide receiver on this team and will continue to demand targets. The question is what will the quality of those targets be, but even if Boyle isn’t an improvement over Zach Wilson, I find it hard to believe he’ll be worse. Garrett Wilson should still find it pretty easy to eclipse this mark, especially in a game that should have the Jets playing from behind for most of it. Wilson has also hit the over on this prop in six of the last seven games, and the Dolphins do allow over 162 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, making Wilson a pretty safe bet.
QB TIM BOYLE OVER 169.5 PASSING YARDS
Admittedly, I’m going a bit out on a limb with this one, but I love taking some risks with these prop bets because if they hit it’s far more rewarding. Yet, I don’t think this is that much of a risk. While it’s true that we can’t draw from any recent game history to determine the chances of Boyle hitting the over here, we can look at the matchup, and the logical game script, and conclude that he should surpass this mark out of sheer necessity. There’s no simpler way to say it than to say the Dolphins are the much better team in this matchup. They should get up by a score or two pretty early on and force the Jets to rely more on Boyle’s arm than they were hoping to. Besides if you take a look at Zach Wilson’s numbers as the starting Jets QB he surpassed 169.5 yards in all but one game in which he played 100% of the snaps. So Boyle just has to be as good as Wilson to hit the over here, and maybe that’s not even required. Boyle may have to throw it 35-45 times just to hope to stay in this one so he may be able to be slightly worse than Wilson and still payoff. If he’s better, though, he should easily eclipse this total. Placing a bet on a player like Boyle feels risky, but in the end, it could be one of the surer bets you’ll make.
