Bold NFL Predictions
I enjoy writing this column because it gives me a chance to review all of my weekly research and take it to the extreme level. I do try to make predictions that are within the range of outcomes, although they usually stretch the outer limits. I don’t mind so much if I don’t get them right, but I do expect the results to at least trend towards whatever my prediction was. For example, last week, I predicted Tank Dell would have 100 receiving yards, which he did, plus another 49 yards. That’s a clear win for my prediction. But sometimes I don’t get it exactly right, but the process was solid. In Week 11, I predicted the Cleveland Browns would hold the Pittsburgh Steelers to zero offensive touchdowns. I was wrong as the Steelers did score one offensive touchdown, but it was on a 74-yard TD run from Jaylen Warren. Aside from that one play, Pittsburgh was terrible on offense. So, even though I was technically wrong, I feel good about that prediction.
I did have some big misses last week as well. I predicted Russell Wilson would throw for three touchdowns. He only threw for one. And I predicted Trey McBride would have another 100 yards receiving day. He didn’t. Not even close. Such is the life of a bold predictor, but we carry on, week to week, making more bold predictions and trying to forget all of our misses. At any rate, it’s time for my Week 12 bold predictions.
Hill Encounters Turbulence Against Jets
The Dolphins head to New York to take on the Zach Wilson-less Jets. These teams seem to be going in different directions, and the Jets are desperate for a win to have any kind of shot to make the playoffs. I don’t know if they can beat Miami this week, but their defense should keep the game from getting out of hand. The Dolphins have struggled against good defenses, averaging just 17 points in their losses to the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles. In those games, Tyreek Hill is averaging 13 fewer PPR fantasy points than in his other games. On top of that, the Jets hold opposing wide receivers to the fewest fantasy points in the league. In order to have a chance to win, New York will have to shut Hill down. I think they will be able to do that. I don’t know if the Jets will be able to score any points of their own, but I think they’ll keep Hill under 12 fantasy points.
Williams Goes on a RAMpage
Kyren Williams is set to make his return this week as the Rams take on the Cardinals in Arizona. Before going out with an injury, Williams was tearing it up, averaging 18.5 PPR fantasy points per game, including 21.8 points in LA’s first matchup against the Cardinals in Week 6. In that game, Williams rushed for 158 yards on 20 carries and scored a touchdown. Almost 53% of the Rams touchdowns have come from rushes, the second-highest rate in the league, behind Baltimore. On the road, the number shoots up to 66%, so it’s very likely that with an implied Vegas total of 23, there’s a good chance the Rams score twice on the ground. Arizona is giving up the most rushing yards at home in the NFL, so I expect Los Angeles to go run-heavy. The main benefactor of that will be Williams, who is set up for a huge day. I believe when Week 12 is in the books, it will have Williams as a top-three fantasy back for the week.
Allentown Invades Philadelphia
The biggest game of the week is the Eagles versus the Bills. Philadelphia has not lost a beat from last season, looking every bit like a team going to the Super Bowl again. Buffalo, on the other hand, has played below expectations, managing only a 6-5 record and sitting half a game behind the Steelers for the final Wild Card spot. Although Josh Allen leads the league in interceptions, he has played well and leads the league in fantasy points, averaging 23.6 per game. Jalen Hurts is right behind him with 23.3 points per game. There have been 10 times this season when a quarterback has scored over 30 fantasy points. Allen has two of those himself. The Eagles, as good as they are, allow the 28th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. I have a feeling this is a Josh Allen-takeover game where he carries the team on his back. This is going to be a fun game to watch. While I wouldn’t put money on the Bills winning, I do think it will come down to the final moments, and Allen will have a huge game. I predict he will have his league-leading third game with over 30 fantasy points and be the top fantasy quarterback of the week.
A Likely Top 3 Tight End
The Baltimore Ravens are hurting after losing Mark Andrews to injury last week. Isaiah Likely will step in once again, as he did last season, and try to make up for the huge loss to the offense. Likely only has nine catches this season in limited action, but in his last start in Week 18 of last season, he collected 8 receptions for 113 yards on 13 targets. The Chargers are one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends, so Likely should get a fair share of targets. If he can find the end zone this week, which I believe he can, he Likely will have enough volume to finish the week as a top-three TE.
Chargers Shocked by Raven Flock
Sticking with the Ravens-Chargers game, I see the potential for a lopsided game in favor of the Ravens. LA is going through some turmoil, and Head Coach Brandon Staley is feeling the pressure. Staley is known for questionable play-calling, and I think desperation could result in even more suboptimal decisions than usual. Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, and I think John Harbaugh senses chaos and confusion in the Chargers right now. I look for the Ravens to pounce immediately and control this game from the start. Los Angeles won’t be able to recover, and Baltimore will win in a blowout by 20 or more points.
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