NFL Fantasy Stats
It never fails. Every year in fantasy there are surprises. Players who break out who no one expected to, as well as players who disappoint even though they were being drafted in the early rounds. As we watch the season unfold some of these surprises are obvious, while others are only discovered when looking deeper at the individual player. As we head into the last regular season game of the fantasy season (at least for the majority of leagues) managers are looking for any piece of information that might give them an advantage and help them make the playoffs. While not all of this will prove actionable from a fantasy perspective, some of it may be useful in helping decide who to start in your crucial week 14 matchup. Here are 10 surprising statistics heading into week 14.
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C.J. Stroud (QB)
*Most passing yards of any QB
The fact that C.J. Stroud has been good this season is no surprise, but you may not be aware of just how good Stroud has been. Through 13 weeks, not only is Stroud on pace to break the NFL rookie passing record (at his current pace he’d break it by week 16) but he also has the most passing yards in the NFL with 3540. Put simply, Stroud is having an historic season. Coming out of the NFL Draft not everyone was sold on C.J. Stroud as a franchise QB, and very few expected too much from him in his rookie season on a Texans team that looked to be a few years away from actually contending. But at 7-5, the Texans are very much in the playoff race and the main reason is the play of their rookie signal caller. In week 13, Stroud did lose one of his favorite targets in Tank Dell to a season-ending ankle injury. It remains to be seen how that will impact Stroud’s production, but with pass-catchers Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and John Metchie still there, as well as Dalton Schultz returning at some point I expect the Texans to continue to rely on the arm of their talented rookie as he continues on his way to breaking that NFL record.
Lamar Jackson (QB)
*Fewest passing yards of any top-12 QB
Some people may wonder why it surprises me that a QB like Jackson, who has typically relied heavily on his legs for fantasy production, has the fewest passing yards of any top-12 quarterback. The answer is twofold. First, coming into the season with the additions of Odell Beckham, Jr. and Zay Flowers, not to mention having one of the premier tight ends in the league as well as the hiring of Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator the general belief was that they would be more pass-heavy in 2023. Yet, Jackson is only attempting 27.8 passes per game, so the volume has not been there even though they have a much deeper receiving core than in 2022. But what’s even more surprising than Jackson having the fewest passing yards are the players that have more than him. Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, and Brock Purdy all have more passing yards than Jackson. One is a rookie and the other three are in their first full season as starters. Still, Jackson has looked good this season and at 9-3, I don’t see the Ravens changing things any time soon, so expect the passing volume to stay down.
Rachaad White (RB)
*Top-5 fantasy running back
Coming into the 2023 season I’m not sure anyone had Rachaad White as a top-5 running back on their bingo card, and yet, that is where we find ourselves. What is even odder is how White has gotten there, with a lot of his production coming through the air. After a slow start to the season, White has scored at least 13 PPR points in seven straight games. White has also managed a top-15 RB finish in five of his last six games, and a top-12 finish in four. With Baker Mayfield running the show in Tampa Bay, there have been more dump-offs to the running back and White has made the most of those opportunities. No one would argue that White is a better talent than Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, or Bijan Robinson, but he is currently ahead of all of them and with how the Buccaneers are having to play, I don’t see White’s involvement going down anytime soon. He is a borderline RB1 moving forward and a solid RB2 that many managers (because of where he was drafted) can play in their flex. Keep firing him up.
Kyren Williams (RB)
*Most yards per attempt among top-12 running backs
No one expected Williams to be doing what he is doing this season. At the start of the season, Cam Akers was the presumed starter and many managers saw him as a sleeper pick who you could get in the later rounds but who would be a steal when all was said and done. Akers finished the 2022 season with three consecutive 100+ yard rushing games and finally looked recovered from his Achilles injury. But then Akers was inactive early in the 2023 season and there were reports about him being on the trading block (ultimately he got traded to the Vikings where he suffered what could be a career-ending Achilles injury), opening the door for Williams who seized the opportunity and (no pun intended) ran with it, earning the most yards per attempt of any RB in the top-12. Unfortunately, Williams dealt with an injury of his own that forced him to miss four games, but in the eight games Williams has played, he has been a top-10 RB six times and a top-5 one four times. He is involved heavily in both the run game and passing game for this offense and with injuries continuing to plague the Rams, I would expect that involvement to continue. Williams appears to be one of the true matchup-proof running backs out there and at the end of the season, there’s a real chance he is on the roster of many league winners.
Saquon Barkley (RB)
*Only one rushing touchdown this season
When on the field, Barkley has not been as bad this season as some may think. In the nine games he has played, Barkley has been a top-12 running back four times. The unfortunate thing for Barkley is that he is on one of the worst offenses in football. The Giants are 4-8 this season and have looked completely incapable of moving the ball downfield. Many might point to losing starting QB Daniel Jones in week 5 as the reason this offense has sputtered so much, but they didn’t look much better with Jones under center. This has allowed defenses to focus on stopping Barkley who is clearly the best offensive weapon on this team which has led to only four games where Barkley has averaged more than four yards a carry. But that wouldn’t be so bad if Barkley was still finding ways to get into the end zone, but through 13 weeks, he only has one rushing touchdown. He does have four receiving touchdowns, but needless to say, it’s been a down year for Barkley. If there is any silver lining, it’s that in three of the last four games he has averaged over five yards a carry, but that’s about all that is positive about the situation. The hope is that as they come out of their week 13 bye, they’ve figured some things out, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
D.J. Moore (WR)
*Fewest targets of any top-10 wide receiver
This is only surprising to me because of what D.J. Moore means to this offense. To put it simply, there is not much behind Moore, and after going out and getting him in a blockbuster trade with the Panthers (a trade that, at least at this point, looks like the Bears got the better part of) we all expected him to be peppered with targets, and he largely has been with eight or more targets in seven games this season. But that has still left him as the only top-10 receiver with fewer than 100 targets through 13 weeks (Moore has 93.) Some may blame a lack of creativity on offense with the Bears still relying heavily on the run game and allowing Fields to attempt more than 30 passes just three times. Others may just chalk it up to an offense that has struggled all season and has had fewer opportunities in general. Whatever the reason, the Bears would be smart to unleash Fields as the season reaches its conclusion. Either they’re going to retain him or move on from him. If they are considering keeping him then they need to see what they have in him. If they want to move on from him then they should use these last few games as a showcase of his ability to raise his stock. Either way, they need to start running the offense through the most talented players on the field, and those are Fields and Moore.
Chris Olave (WR)
*Most air yards per game among wide receivers
Chris Olave has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but in recent weeks has been able to find some consistency. In his last four games, Olave has scored at least 13 points in every single one. He is currently a top-20 WR and a solid WR2 for any fantasy squad. Still, I can’t help but feel that he has underperformed based on the expectations for him coming into his second season. But too many times talented wide receivers are held back by poor QB play (think Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets) and while the QB play in New Orleans could be worse, it could also be much better. What makes Olave a player that you have to continue to plug into your lineups is that he’s just one big play away from being the difference between a win and a loss. Through 13 weeks, Olave has the most air yards per game of any wide receiver with 128.81. He is a talented wide receiver who is often open due to great route running. His quarterback just can’t always get him the ball. But in those games when he can, Olave has top-10 potential, although he’s only realized that potential twice this season. Olave should be viewed as a low-end WR2 with upside every week.
Devonta Smith (WR)
*Fewest red zone targets among any top-40 wide receiver
To be fair, as a 6’0, 170 lb. receiver red zone targets have never been a huge part of Devonta Smith’s game. But I was surprised to find that through 13 weeks he has only received four such targets, which is the lowest mark among any top-40 fantasy wide receiver. This is even more surprising when you consider that Smith is the WR14 on the season and is on one of the most potent offenses in the league. Still, when they get in the red zone it is the bigger, stronger A.J. Brown who gets the look, not Smith. This makes sense since Brown is one of the best in the league at coming down with contested catches. This lack of red zone targets has not hurt Smith’s production overall. Smith is a solid WR2 with WR1 upside every week. The matchups coming up for Smith are also very favorable. After this week’s contest against Dallas, Smith faces the Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals. That is a great trio of matchups for the fantasy playoffs and could lead to big numbers for Smith who has scored 20+ points in each of his last two games.
Dalton Schultz (TE)
*Most end zone targets among tight ends
If I were to ask you to name the tight end with the most end zone targets I’m not sure the first name that would come to mind would be Dalton Schultz, but that’s symbolic of how unpredictable this whole 2023 season has been. Even more surprising might be the fact that the 27-year-old Schultz has four top-5 finishes this season. The Texans have been passing a lot, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud attempting nearly 35 passes per game. This has meant plenty of opportunities for all Texans pass catchers, Schultz included. More often than not, Schultz has been a recommended start, and with more end zone targets than any tight end (8), he always has a chance to score, which he’s done five times this season. Stroud is playing at an elite level and this should continue to boost the value of every player catching passes from him. Unfortunately, Schultz is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined in week 13 and there has been no report on how close he is to returning, but once he’s healthy he should be inserted right back into your lineup. With the loss of Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz should all see an uptick in usage. Hopefully, (if not this week), Schultz will return just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
George Kittle (TE)
*Most yards per reception among tight ends
At the beginning of the season, there was some concern about Kittle. Many analysts and experts predicted him as a bust because he was on a team with so many mouths to feed. With Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey all demanding their share of targets, people weren’t sure how much would be left for Kittle. Well, as we approach the end of the regular season (for fantasy anyway) those concerns were clearly exaggerated. Kittle is the TE4, finishing as the TE8 or better in seven of 12 games. He also has the most yards per reception among tight ends with 14.7. He is catching the ball downfield and breaking tackles to get yards after the catch. No one has ever denied Kittle’s ability, but with injuries plaguing him the last few seasons and so many other elite-level playmakers on the 49ers, the concern about just how good he could be was reasonable. Now that we’ve seen how good he can be and how involved he is in the offense he is one of the few set-it-and-forget-it tight ends in fantasy. He should continue to produce for you as the 49ers face off against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens, and Commanders in their next four games, three of which could be blowouts, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities for Kittle and Co.
