10 Surprising Fantasy Stats After Six NFL Weeks

Surprising Fantasy Stats

Another week, another bevy of surprising statistics to sift through. As the season progresses, you expect things to start taking shape, but this season has been full of surprises that make it difficult to know who will produce week in and week out. Some players pass the eye test and continue to produce, while others feel like they should be more impactful based on the advanced metrics but are, for whatever reason, underperforming. In this article, I’m going to take a look at a few. Here are my ten surprising fantasy stats after six NFL weeks.

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Jared Goff (QB)

*Highest protection rate in the league among starting quarterbacks

After starting slowly with three straight games that saw him finish outside of the top 15 at the position, Jared Goff has come on strong in his last two games. Goff has been a top-five QB for two straight weeks and has thrown for over 600 yards and five touchdowns. While Goff has looked better as the season has gone on, he has also benefited from a clean pocket. Through six weeks, Goff has enjoyed the highest protection rate (94.7%) in the league. Goff has also had the good fortune of facing fantasy-friendly pass defenses. He will now start a three-game stretch against teams that are in the top third of the league. These next few weeks will be the test of whether or not Goff has truly turned a corner.

Kyler Murray (QB)

*Highest completion percentage when pressured

Through the first six weeks of the season, Murray has two top-five performances but has been outside of the top 12 in the other four games. Still, with Murray’s ability to run the football he does provide a nice floor. On top of that, while he has not been the most efficient quarterback in the league he does have an impressive completion percentage of 76.2% when being pressured. That is the highest mark in the league. Murray has some tough matchups coming up and could be without his top weapon if Marvin Harrison Jr. is forced to miss time due to a concussion. But unless you have a solid backup plan, he has to be in your lineup.

David Montgomery (RB)

*Lowest snap share among top 12 running backs

At some point, we have to accept that David Montgomery is a top fantasy option at the running back position and that Jahmyr Gibbs won’t keep him from producing. Montgomery has finished no worse than RB18 this season and has been inside the top 14 in four of five games. Montgomery has also scored six times in five games. The one caveat that gives me some pause is that Montgomery has done all this while also having the lowest snap share of any top 12 running back. Montgomery has seen the field 44.4% of the time while Gibbs has a 54.4% snap share. So Gibbs is getting more work, but Montgomery’s role is so valuable that I expect both running backs to continue to produce and finish the season among the top 15 at the position.

Kenneth Walker (RB)

*Sees a light box more than any half or full-PPR top 12 running back

In four games, Walker has been RB9, RB2, RB21, and RB13 in half-PPR formats. With his role in the passing game, those numbers are even better in full-PPR. The last two games have seen his efficiency drop, but he is still managing to reward his managers. Part of the reason for this is that Geno Smith and the passing game have started to excel, leading to Walker often seeing a light box. In fact, Walker enjoys a light box 91.9% of the time. That is more than any top 12 running back in half and full-PPR formats. It remains to be seen if that will continue, but if it does, I expect Walker to continue to produce as a top running back. Even if defenses begin to focus more on stopping the run, Walker should have a safe floor with solid work in the passing game.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

*Fewest yards per carry among top 12 running backs

Three weeks ago fantasy managers everywhere were ready to cut their losses and plunge D’Andre Swift back onto the waiver wire. What a difference a few weeks make. Swift followed up his poor start with three 20+ point games and has finished as a top-six running back in all three. He also has a touchdown in three straight games. But while all of that is impressive, he has only managed 3.6 yards per carry, which is the fewest mark of any top 12 running back. Still, that number is largely impacted by his abysmal start to the season, when he averaged under two yards per carry. Since then, he has averaged 4.8 yards. The Bears are on bye this week, but if he continues at that pace for the rest of the season, he will produce as an RB2 with touchdown upside the rest of the way.

Jayden Reed (WR)

*Most points per target among top 12 wide receivers

Jayden Reed has been one of the best fantasy draft picks this season. Reed was drafted at the end of the seventh round in most fantasy drafts but is producing as a top-four wide receiver regardless of format. This is even more impressive because Reed isn’t receiving the number of targets you’d expect from a top-tier player. Reed only has one game with more than six targets. Yet he has the most fantasy points per target (3.3) among top 12 wide receivers. With Jordan Love playing at a high level, I expect Reed to continue producing. He has a knack for finding space and getting open. He is a solid route runner with great speed. He may never be the player who gets double-digit targets consistently, but he’s already proven he doesn’t have to be to be effective.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

*Leads the league in targets

This stat would’ve been much more exciting to discuss before the Davante Adams trade. Through six weeks, Garrett Wilson leads the NFL in targets with 66. Coming into the season, Wilson had high expectations. Fantasy managers were eager to see what he could do with Aaron Rodgers under center for an entire season. After getting off to a slow start, Wilson has had two straight weeks of 20+ fantasy points and has finished no worse than WR6. He has also had 33 targets over that same span and has had fewer than eight targets just once this season. With the signing of Adams, Wilson’s targets and production will go down, but I still expect him to be the second option (at worse) on an improving offense. He may no longer be the surefire WR1 you were hoping for, but he is still a high-end WR2 with massive upside.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

*Has the highest average depth of target among PPR top 20 wide receivers

Like D’Andre Swift, managers were ready to give up on Terry McLaurin after the first couple of weeks. There was a reasonable level of concern about whether or not Jayden Daniels’ strengths could gel with what Terry McLaurin does best. But after two poor outings, Daniels and McLaurin have started to click and McLaurin has two top 10 performances to show for it. McLaurin has scored double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. Daniels is looking for him early and often and hitting him downfield. This has led to McLaurin having the highest depth of target among any top 20 wide receiver in PPR formats. McLaurin will face the Panthers and their struggling defense next. I would expect another boom week from the entire Commanders’ offense.

Brock Bowers (TE)

*Most receiving yards among tight ends

Things just went from good to great for Brock Bowers. Bowers already has the most receiving yards (384) among tight ends, but now that we know Davante Adams won’t be rejoining the team, he could really take off. Bowers is a top-three tight end regardless of format. With no Adams, Bowers becomes the most talented pass catcher on the team and should operate as their No. 1 target. Over the last two weeks, Bowers has 22 targets. I expect him to continue to see double-digit targets and with that much opportunity, a player of Bowers’ skill level will produce. I would not be surprised to see Bowers as the No. 1 tight end by season’s end in all formats. If that happens, it will be the second straight season that a rookie tight end has finished as the TE1 after Sam LaPorta did it last year.

George Kittle (TE)

*Most redzone targets among tight ends

But if Bowers is going to finish as the TE1 he’ll have to leap-frog George Kittle. Kittle is currently the No. 1 tight end in all formats. A big reason for that success is that he has received the most redzone targets (9) of any tight end, which has led to him leading all tight ends with five touchdowns. He is also averaging seven targets a game, with 18 targets in the last two. Unlike the Raiders though, the 49ers have a lot of weapons. Any week could be a Samuel week, an Aiyuk week, or (once he returns) a McCaffrey week. This may make it difficult for Kittle to sustain this level of production. But even if it drops a little, he’s still an easy top-three option at the position and perhaps one of the only true set-it-and-forget-it tight ends.