Surprising NFL Stats
Where did the last 16 weeks go? I don’t know about you, but to me, this football season has gone really fast. It has also been full of surprises and excitement. We lost proven fantasy studs and potential sleepers like Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins in week 1. Players like Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Tank Dell broke out in a big way and helped get some managers to the fantasy playoffs. We had players like De’Von Achane who burst onto the scene with three straight top-4 RB finishes (including finishing as the RB1 in week three), only to get hurt and be far less effective upon his return. On the other side of the coin were players who had been counted on in previous seasons and failed to live up to the lofty expectations we had for them going into 2023. Wherever your team sits in week 17 one thing is sure, this season has been a fun one, and the surprising statistics below only confirm how wonderfully unpredictable the season has been. Here are 10 surprising NFL stats heading into week 17.
Jordan Love (QB)
*Is a top-5 fantasy quarterback
I have to admit that as the 2023 season progressed I was aware that Jordan Love was exceeding expectations and playing at a fairly high level. However, I wasn’t aware of exactly how well he’s been playing and what it has meant for fantasy purposes. Love currently sits as the QB4 on the season (QB6 in leagues that award six points per passing touchdown) and has had nine weeks inside the top-12 at the position (including multiple weeks inside the top seven.) Love has also scored at least 20 points in six of his seven games. Needless to say, Love has been a surprise this season and has been a wonderful waiver wire pickup for anyone who suffered an injury at quarterback or has been saddled with an underperforming QB1. The matchup has also not mattered much in recent weeks with three of those 20+ point games coming against defensive units that are top-10 against opposing QBs. So the matchup against Minnesota in week 17 isn’t particularly intimidating. They are currently middle-of-the-pack against quarterbacks. Love could be without several key weapons, but even so I think he’ll find a way to, once again, produce another 20+ outing.
Jared Goff (QB)
*Most passing yards among top-12 quarterbacks
With an established elite receiving option like Amon-Ra St. Brown and young emerging stars like Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, as well as a solid run game led by David Montgomery, it’s no surprise that the Lions have opted to rely on Jared Goff a lot this season. Still, I’m surprised that they have done so at the rate they have, putting him in the top-8 at the position from a fantasy perspective this year. Goff has thrown more than 30 passes in all but three games and even hit the 40 threshold four times (including one game of 53 attempts.) This has led to him owning the most passing yards among any top-12 quarterback with 3980 yards on the season with two games left to go. That is a group that includes Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. While, unlike all three of those QBs, Goff does not provide much value with his legs, what he has been able to do in the passing game cannot be overlooked. The volume and efficiency have played a major role in rookie TE Sam LaPorta’s breakout as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown being in the top-5 at his position. It’s also part of the reason the run game has been able to be so effective. In week 17 against Dallas, Goff may have to air it out a lot, making him a solid QB1 for your fantasy championship matchup.
Derrick Henry (RB)
*Fewest fantasy points per attempt of any top-12 running back
Coming into 2023 the expectations for Derrick Henry were all over the place. Some within the fantasy community were concerned about the wheels falling off at some point for Henry while others were willing to take a chance on him and if the decline happened then it happened. But based on what we had seen prior to 2023 there was no concrete reason to believe the decline was imminent. Still, while he is in the top-10 at the position, for those who own him, it has been a frustrating ride at times. Through the first 16 weeks, Henry has seven top-10 finishes but only three in the top-5. As dominant as Henry has been in the past, this type of output for a running back who was being drafted in the second round often as the 7th or 8th running back off the board can’t be seen as anything but disappointing. When your RB1 has just seven RB1 performances that’s an issue. If you went RB/RB in your draft and chose Henry as your RB2 then you probably weren’t as disappointed by what he has done. But for a player of Henry’s caliber who has been elite for so long the fact that he is scoring the fewest fantasy points per attempt of any top-12 running back (.89 points per attempt) is not great, and will likely impact his ADP in 2024.
Raheem Mostert (RB)
*Most total touchdowns among all running backs
In 2023 drafts, Raheem Mostert was almost an afterthought. Mostert had an ADP of 134 overall as the 47th running back being drafted in PPR formats. This was behind players like Khalil Herbert, AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, and even rookie teammate De’Von Achane. Clearly, if you waited on RB and drafted Mostert late then you have been handsomely rewarded for that investment. Mostert is currently the RB2 on the season and has scored the most total touchdowns of any running back in the league with 21 (18 rushing and 3 receiving.) If you’ve been watching him this season you’re probably wondering “How can you be surprised by this stat,” but the surprise isn’t just based on what has happened this season, it’s largely due to the expectations surrounding him coming into the season. When you draft a running back in the late 11th or early 12th round you are not drafting that player to even be an RB2 for your team, let alone the RB2 overall. Much of the fear surrounding Mostert can be boiled down to a history of injuries and the addition of the talented Achane, but through 16 weeks, Mostert has yet to miss a single game and has held off Achane enough to maintain RB1A duties on a team that scores a lot of points quickly. Mostert is currently dealing with an ankle injury, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to go this week, but if he is then he is a set-it-and-forget RB1.
Breece Hall (RB)
*2nd-most targets among running backs
No matter how you look at Breece Hall’s second year in the league the only conclusion you can come to is that it has been a bit up-and-down. In 2023, Hall has as many weeks outside the top-25 at the position as he does weeks inside the top-12. Still, mostly on the strength of a few extraordinary weeks, Hall is the RB8 on the season and has been enjoying a significant enough workload to warrant weekly automatic starting status. What is surprising is where much of that work has come from. Over the last five weeks, Hall has received 8 or more targets in every game, with two games in his last three of at least 86 receiving yards, as well as a receiving touchdown. His number of targets for the season (84) is 2nd in the league among running backs, right behind Alvin Kamara who has 85 targets. This could be, in part, due to game scripts that forced the Jets to throw it more than they would like to, and with some of the worst quarterback play in the league, it makes sense that many of these passes would be dump-offs to the running back. But if you are in a half or full-PPR league then this has been a welcomed development. In week 17, the Jets will face the Browns and although the Browns have a solid defense, Hall should see enough volume to return RB2 value.
Mike Evans (WR)
*Most receiving touchdowns in the league
The fact that Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans is scoring touchdowns is not surprising. He has a history of being a favorite red zone target of whoever is passing him the ball. But how many touchdowns he has scored this season is a bit surprising, especially given the low expectations for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has been better than expected and as a result, has helped the fantasy production of those around him. With receivers like Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Ja’Marr Chase, it’s hard to believe that it is Evans who has the most receiving touchdowns in the league with 13. Beyond that, he’s currently in the top-5 at the position regardless of format. The issue in week 17 is not Evans’ talent or production through 16 weeks, but his opponent. This week Evans will face a New Orleans team that has a history of shutting him down. In 18 career outings against New Orleans, Evans only has three games of more than 12 half-PPR points with the last such game coming back in 2018. That is a lot of history to be counting on if you made it to your fantasy championship. Evans is not the type of player you sit, but if you must rely on him this week don’t be surprised if he disappoints.
D.J. Moore (WR)
*Lowest drop rate among top-25 receivers
D.J. Moore has been targeted 117 times this season. That is a healthy amount of targets, and yet he leads all top-25 receivers with the lowest drop rate among them. Moore, rather incredibly, has just one drop on the season and a drop rate of .9%. When the Bears acquired Moore’s services last year in what was considered a blockbuster trade, fans were excited that they were finally going to have a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver to target and build the passing game around. Unfortunately, due to some poor quarterback play by Justin Fields early in the season and then an injury to Fields later the full scope of what this passing game could be has not come into focus. But Moore has still managed to be a bright spot in another forgettable season for the Bears. Through 16 weeks, Moore has 83 receptions for 1141 yards and seven touchdowns. He has also been available for every game and after Wednesday’s injury report did not list Moore, it looks like he will be available once again. The Falcons are a much harder matchup than one might expect, allowing the second-fewest points to opposing wide receivers, but if Moore is in the lineup for the Bears then he should be for you as well.
Keenan Allen (WR)
*2nd-most targets in the league, while missing two games
Coming into the 2023 season I expected Keenan Allen to receive a lot of targets, but I’m not sure I expected the number of targets to be quite so high. So far this season, Allen has 150 targets, second only to the Dallas Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb (151). However, when you consider that Allen has missed the last two games due to a heel injury it’s even more impressive because it means Allen’s targets-per-game (11.5) is higher than Lamb’s (10.) Allen is still missing practice this week and the Chargers have already been eliminated from the playoffs so it remains to be seen if he will return. Even if Allen can go, the situation is not a great one. The Denver Broncos are a top-10 unit against opposing wide receivers and he would be linked to QB Easton Stick. But Stick did look much better in week 16 after a week of practice under his belt than he did in week 15, so there is some hope that if Allen is out there he’ll be able to produce on volume alone. Unless you’re stacked at wide receiver it would be hard to sit Allen if he is cleared to play, but if you are able to go in another direction I wouldn’t be opposed to at least entertaining the idea.
Mark Andrews (TE)
*Still a top-12 tight end even though he’s missed the last five games
I don’t know if this is an indictment of the tight end position as a whole, or if it’s just illuminating how great Mark Andrews was before suffering an ankle injury. Either way, it is amazing to me that Andrews is still in the top-12 at the position despite missing the last five games. When you look closer at his numbers, it kind of makes sense. In the nine games in which he played and finished, Andrews scored double-digit fantasy points in five of them, and finished as a top-12 tight end seven times. No wonder those numbers have been good enough to keep him in the top-10 to top-12 (depending on the format) at the position. Andrews has shown time and time again that he is truly an elite tight end option. As Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, Andrews received five or more targets in all but one game and had six touchdowns (including two multiple-TD games) before he suffered his injury. It sounds like Andrews will not be ready until the playoffs (at the earliest) so anyone who drafted him will have to continue rolling with their backup, but when 2024 comes around don’t forget his name. With declining stars like Travis Kelce and emerging ones like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, Andrews could end up the forgotten man and a draft-day steal.
Cole Kmet (TE)
*Zero drops on the season
Perhaps it’s easier to have an impressive drop stat line when you play for a team with a run-first mentality, but the fact that Cole Kmet has not dropped a single pass this season is impressive from any angle. He is the only tight end with 80 or more targets to be able to lay claim to this accomplishment, and while having players like Kmet and D.J. Moore has not translated to as much on-field success as the Bears were hoping for it does provide a glimpse into what the future could be if they choose to build around the talent they have while improving other areas. It may also surprise you to learn that Kmet is the TE7 this season and has the type of volume you look for in a starting TE. Since week 7, Kmet has received six or more targets in all but two games and has finished outside the top-12 at the position just twice. He has also done this while not being touchdown-dependent. Over that same span, Kmet only has three touchdowns but is still managing to produce as a TE1 because the receptions and yardage totals are there, with him having his first 100-yard game of the season in week 16. Atlanta has been a solid defensive unit in 2023 but is actually quite generous to opposing tight ends. If Kmet finds himself getting open and succeeding where the wide receivers cannot, he could be in store for another big day right when fantasy managers need it the most.
