10 Surprising NFL Stats Heading Into Week Nine

NFL Stats Heading Into Week 9

undefined It’s hard to believe we’re already approaching week 9 of the NFL season. The first eight weeks have flown by and have proved as unpredictable as ever. Each week some things stick out as surprising pieces of information that continue to make fantasy football more fun than it has any right to be. While big-name studs underperform, young, unknown players come out of nowhere to provide league-winning upside. There are the expected outcomes, the surprising performances, and everything in between, and yet, some facts still go unnoticed unless you look deeper into the numbers. Here are 10 surprising stats that stood out to me this week.

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Sam Howell (QB)

*Has the 2nd most passing attempts per game

This one surprised me quite a bit. With quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert in the league I would never have guessed that not only have all of them been outpaced in pass attempts per game by Kirk Cousins but also by 2nd year Washington Commanders signal-caller, Sam Howell. Howell is currently 2nd in the league in pass attempts per game with 38.5. Head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy clearly like and trust what they have in Howell and are allowing him to air it out. Some of this could be due to game script, but most of it is because Howell is playing solid football. Other than weeks 3 & 7 when he faced a stout Buffalo defense and better than advertised New York Giants defense, Howell has finished no worse than 14th at the position, finishing in the top-12 in half of his games. Most recently, Howell and the Commanders kept pace with Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, throwing for 387 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and scoring 38.98 fantasy points along the way, and nearly leading his team to victory in a close 38-31 matchup. With the run game not being able to get much going, I expect they will continue to lean on Howell and his talented pass-catchers. He’s a top-12 fantasy quarterback until further notice.

Jared Goff (QB)

*Highest completion percentage on deep balls

Jared Goff has been a solid quarterback in 2023, both in real life and in fantasy. Goff is the QB9 on the season and has three top-6 finishes through eight games. He’s done this with not much behind star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as far as pass catchers go. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has received his fair share of targets and done what he can with them, but he is still a rookie. Josh Reynolds has flashed at times, but he’s not an elite talent that strikes fear into opposing defenses. Plus, the Lions are a team coached by Dan Campbell, who seems intent on staying committed to the run, so Goff’s success has been impressive. Perhaps, most impressive is his accuracy on deep throws, boasting the highest completion percentage on such throws. This comes in handy when you have a receiver like St. Brown who can get behind defenses with a good combination of speed and solid route running. Goff is not at the level of the elite options at quarterback but if you waited on the position and drafted Goff late, you got a steal. Keep firing him up.

Breece Hall (RB)

*Most yards-per-carry of any active running back with at least 50 carries

Coming into the season no one knew exactly what to expect from Hall. He was coming off a major injury and the New York Jets had signed Dalvin Cook, which seemed to signal Hall was not going to be ready any time soon. Then Hall played in week one against the Buffalo Bills and looked good, running for 127 yards on 10 carries which included an 83-yard scamper. He also added a reception for 20 yards. All of a sudden Hall’s managers were chanting, “he’s back.” Unfortunately, Hall followed up his week 1 performance with three underwhelming showings, failing to score double-digit in any of those games and finishing outside of the top-20 at the position every time. However, after what Hall has done the last three weeks, it does seem as if he is truly back. With finishes of RB3, RB5, and RB8, Hall has become a set-it-and-forget-it RB1 for fantasy purposes, boasting a robust 5.68 best yards-per-carry average, which is best among all running backs with at least 50 carries. Hall’s success should keep rolling with Dalvin Cook becoming an afterthought and Hall getting further removed from his injury.

Christian McCaffrey (RB)

*Tied for third in targets at the running back position with 37

Being tied for third in targets among running backs should be impressive and not a surprising stat and yet, when your name is Christian McCaffrey expectations are so high that even being tied for third seems like an underperformance. As arguably the premiere dual-threat running back in the NFL you would expect McCaffrey to be the most targeted running back in the league, but through eight weeks both Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs have been targeted more, with Bijan Robinson receiving the same amount of targets. This is not to say in any way that McCaffrey has been a disappointment. He hasn’t. He has been every bit the elite fantasy asset he was expected to be. He is currently the RB1 in fantasy and, unless he gets injured, will finish that way. Still, I’m surprised he hasn’t received more targets than he has, especially with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk suffering injuries at different points in the season. Over the second half of the season, this may correct itself, but even if he remains third on the list, he is a locked and loaded RB1.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

*The only running back with double-digit rushing touchdowns

I honestly had to do a double-take when I saw this stat. In a league with several elite running backs that get 15-20 touches a game, I would’ve thought there was more than just one person with double-digit rushing touchdowns. Yet, as it stands, Raheem Mostert is the only running back in the league with 10 rushing touchdowns. Halfway through the season, Mostert has only two games without a rushing touchdown and three games with multiple rushing touchdowns. All of this has led to him being the RB3 on the season. It remains to be seen if Mostert can keep up this pace with Jeff Wilson getting healthier and the imminent return of rookie sensation De’Von Achane. If the last two weeks are any indication, it may be a good time to sell Mostert. Over the last two games, Mostert has failed to receive more than 13 touches in either game, with 10.6 fantasy points and an RB19 finish being his best output. Mostert has helped many managers enjoy a winning record through eight weeks, but he may be far less productive in the weeks to come. I would get out while his value is still high.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

*Highest average depth of target among wide receivers

In 2022, Rashid Shaheed was a boom-or-bust type of receiver, and 2023 has been no different. Through eight weeks, Shaheed only has three double-digit showings, but in all three he finished as a top-12 wide receiver. The other five weeks he finished outside the top-50 at the position. That is the definition of boom-or-bust. Shaheed’s success, or lack of it, is all dependent on the success of any deep targets he gets. Shaheed currently has the highest depth of target among all wide receivers with 16.22 yards. That is a very encouraging number. The problem is he’s been targeted four or fewer times in half of his games, so he has to not only hit on one of those deep balls but also take it to the house to justify being started in fantasy. As a flex option, Shaheed does serve his purpose as an upside play who has the ability to score from anywhere on the field, but he’s just as likely to get you five points as he is to get you 20. With all the injuries this year, Shaheed may be your best flex option, but just know if you use him you’re hoping for a deep touchdown, otherwise you’ll be disappointed.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

*Gets a higher share of his team’s red zone targets than any other wide receiver

If I asked you to name the player who gets the highest share of his team’s red zone targets would you have guessed New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson? Me either. Still, that is exactly the name you should say. In recent weeks, Wilson has been a decent fantasy option with two top-20 finishes at the position. Just think of what he could be if Aaron Rodgers had never gotten hurt. While top-20 is not what you were hoping for when you drafted Wilson in the second or third round, he has continued to show an elite upside and skill set that few receivers possess. Unfortunately, he is linked to Zach Wilson as his quarterback. So while he has been heavily targeted everywhere, including the red zone, many of those targets are uncatchable, hurting his fantasy production. This is why even though he receives a higher share of red zone targets than any other wide receiver, they have only led to two touchdowns on the season, and not a single touchdown since week 2. If you have Wilson, you likely don’t have a better option, and are starting him, but as long as Zach Wilson is throwing him the ball his ceiling will be capped.

Chris Olave (WR)

*Most routes run by a wide receiver

As the WR30 on the season, Saints second-year wide receiver, Chris Olave has been disappointing, but it can’t be said it’s due to a lack of opportunity. Olave has run a higher percentage of routes than any wide receiver in the league, running a route on 39.7% of snaps. He’s also seen double-digit targets in five of eight games, so Olave’s usage is very encouraging. Unfortunately, quarterback Derek Carr has had more downs than ups and Olave has only managed one touchdown on the season, with his best showing being WR14 back in week 1. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see a path for Olave to have the kind of breakout those who drafted him were counting on. As a main part of the Saints’ offense, Olave will remain a serviceable fantasy option, but if touchdowns continue to be hard to come by Olave will be more of a flex play than the WR2 with upside we thought we were getting. Right now he’s a hold because it would be hard to get anything resembling fair value for him based on how he’s been performing, but if he comes out in week 9 and has a breakout week I would try selling high.

Cade Otton (TE)

*Highest snap share of any tight end

It’s hard for me to believe in a league that includes players like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson, it is 2nd-year, Buccaneers tight end, Cade Otton who has the highest snap share of any tight end in the league, being out there on 96% of snaps. His usage has also ramped up in the last two weeks with him receiving 12 targets in that span. This still hasn’t translated to meaningful production with Otton finishing no better than TE13 in any given week, but as a young player in his second year in the league, the increased snap share and target share are encouraging. For those struggling at the tight end position, Otton may be worth a stash, just to see if his involvement in the offense continues to increase. However, as long as receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are there and running back Rachaad White continues to be involved in the passing game, Otton will be no better than the third option on the team, and he might even be fourth. This won’t provide many managers with confidence, but as a touchdown-dependent spot start or a wait-and-see type of player, Otton could be worth the risk.

Evan Engram (TE)

*Is a top-6 TE in PPR despite scoring zero touchdowns on the season

It’s difficult to call a player who is anywhere from top-7 to top-5 at their position, depending on format, a disappointment, and yet, it’s hard not to imagine how much better Engram’s season could be if he could just find his way into the end zone. Right now, Engram is managing top-6 production in PPR formats, even though he has yet to score a single touchdown this season. To be fair, Engram’s production has never really come from touchdowns, with him only managing four scores in 2022, but with at least seven targets in all but one game, you would hope some of those would come around the end zone. Yet, even with the high usage and solid target share, not only has Engram failed to find the end zone, he doesn’t even have a single red zone or end zone target, so unless that changes we will be waiting a long time for Engram to be starting any touchdown dances. Still, he is a consistent, if unspectacular tight end option, and in fantasy football, sometimes that’s all you need.